Scenario: Financial system meltdown - Page 4

Scenario: Financial system meltdown

This is a discussion on Scenario: Financial system meltdown within the Carry & Defensive Scenarios forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; For those that think being prepared as an individual or family will help. Those that think they will be better off than their neighbors because ...

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  1. #46
    VIP Member Array mlr1m's Avatar
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    For those that think being prepared as an individual or family will help. Those that think they will be better off than their neighbors because they have prepared and worked to that end.
    Do you not think that the government will step in to "spread the wealth?"

    Michael


  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chaplain Scott View Post
    First off, I am a Christian--

    So, given where I am coming from...
    I'm also a Christian, so given where I'm coming from the "Blessed Hope" is escape, not survival.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlr1m View Post
    For those that think being prepared as an individual or family will help. Those that think they will be better off than their neighbors because they have prepared and worked to that end.
    Do you not think that the government will step in to "spread the wealth?"

    Michael
    I took the scenario to imply that government was inoperative and unlikely to be quickly restored if ever. Your question suggests there is sufficient government operating to take stuff from you. If so, there is sufficient government operating to deal with whatever the emergency might have been.

    I have been busy reading the Autobiography of Ben Franklin. It is rather interesting that the residents of Philadelphia often banded together and "subscribed," that is chipped in, to create a fire department, a street cleaning service, a non-denominational meeting place, a school which eventually became the U of PA, and a hospital. I'm not so sure that in today's environment any of these institutions could be created through the collective charity of my city's residents, and that is no reflection on my neighbors. It is just the way things are. That is why government and taxation are necessities-- to accomplish those things that won't be done by individual effort.

    Oh, and in PA during a time when England was at war with both France and Spain, the citizens formed their own defense force, and purchased their own cannon. Again, I don't see the civic mindedness that existed then in our present society. Hence, the need for government.

    And as for Philadelphia's early civic structure, of course we don't today have statesmen of Franklin's stature to encourage any such activity among the citizenry.
    Rock and Glock and Tzadik like this.
    If the Union is once severed, the line of separation will grow wider and wider, and the controversies which are now debated and settled in the halls of legislation will then be tried in fields of battle and determined by the sword.
    Andrew Jackson

  4. #49
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    I thought that one of our present problems was that banks were loath to loan but that there was demand, which they were not meeting in part due to stringent loan practices so they don't get burned on bad loans. You seem to be saying there is no demand. Are you talking about the mortgage market, or the commercial/small business market or both? And I would appreciate an explanation of what you mean by their margins being too low. The banks are now practically borrowing at 0% . Are you saying the demand for loans is so low that they can not charge a high enough interest rate to have a decent margin/mark up?

    I'm asking because I keep hearing about all the poor business people being unable to get loans. You'd think if they want a loan they'd pay a higher interest rate and the bank margin would be adequate, no?

    I could use some help understanding this stuff.

    These are all good questions, and I speak with respect to my clients, that are small "Community Banks" with $2.5 B or less in total assets generally. That size bank truly lives on small business and retail business, which in todays economy and environment, is very cautious and conservative. Most of America's Banks are "Community Banks", and not the large banks like BoA, Wells Fargo, Citibank, JP Morgan etc. that have their own unique challenges. Most of my banks also had a fair real estate loan portfolio too.

    The simple answer is that the loan demand present today is lower quality than the bank wants due to self-imposed pressure or pressure from the Regulators. That is, the banks are loth to loan, as you state, due to regulatory pressure. There is little demand from higher quality borrowers - hence I stated "no demand", but I didn't qualify the statement. So the small banks don't get to loan to the Apple Computers of the world (nor does Apple need to borrow much). This really applies to both commercial and retail and mortgage lending. Mortgage lending is a wee different - with so little activity in the RE markets, there is little demand, other than refinancings, which are difficult due to the drops in value (banks are limited on how much they can loan against the value). Additionally, most banks have multiple regulators, and the regulators have issued conflicting regulations, so a bank has a real confused / confusing route to keep the regulators happy. Regulators include the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), FDIC, state regulators perhaps, and some minor players. Does that help?

    Banks earn money by borrowing money (deposits, CD, the Fed, bonds, etc.) at X% and then investing it (bonds) at X% or lending it to borrowers at X%. The difference is the "Net Interest Margin" banks live and die by. If it is narrow, that is bad for the bank, wide is better. So if a bank can borrow at low rates, and invest and loan it at higher rates (higher new margins) that is good for the bank, but just borrowing low doesn't mean much by itself, if they are earning low rates on their investments or loans. I'll look up some historical Net Interest Margins for the last 10 years on some of my banks in a few minutes.

    Your observation about supply and demand is spot on too - lower rates increase should increase demand, higher rates decrease demand, but we're in a weird environment where nobody wants to do nothing because the future is so darn murky.

    I'll go look up Net Interest Rate Margins now. Hope I made some sense. And back to the regularly scheduled message from our sponsor about the potential financial system meltdown.
    Last edited by Rock and Glock; September 5th, 2011 at 10:38 AM.

  5. #50
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    I just looked, and the Net Interest Margins are lower now than almost anytime in the last decade. Also note, when loan demand drops (for whatever reason), and bank has more $$ to invest (rather than loan) and investment returns right now are pathetic, the NIM drops. More loans typically means higher NIM, since the rate on loans is always higher than investments.

    Also remember, the NIM has to pay all of the payroll, building costs, insurance, and the overhead. It's a tough business right now, what with Washington DC on an anti-bank rampage, little loan demand, and skinny margins.

    By the way, I like Alice.

    I have an 85 years supply of fixins' for SoMores too. What else does a family need?

    And most folks won't see it coming. It'll be slow and gradual and sneak up on most. Ask Fer Fal.

  6. #51
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    Here's a post from another forum which some might find beneficial. It's an long but interesting read. Makes you wonder just how well you may think you are prepared for WROL. I would think it's imperative that we make our votes count and make sure a total economic collapse doesn't happen.

    Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare, by Jeff T.

    I am the leader of a band of 8-to-12 looters. I have some basic military training. We move from place to place like locusts devouring everything in our path. My group is armed with light weapons and can develop and follow simple plans of attack. We take what we want by force of arms. We prefer none of our victims survive because that could cause problems for us in the future.

    It has been six months since the grid went down. You and the other five members of your party have settled into what may be a long grinding existence. The every day tasks of growing and gathering have now become routine. The news from the outside is extremely limited but you don’t really miss it much. Life is simple but physically demanding.

    Although things may seem stable you will need to keep your team focused and alert. This is your first and most important layer of defense. You should hold an immediate reaction drill once per week. Keep things simple. Practice a specific response to such threats as injury, fire, attack and evacuation. Despite the challenges you must maintain contact with those around you such as neighbors for vital clues that trouble is brewing. Regular monitoring the radio will be critical in providing an early warning of trouble. You may be able to safely interview refugees with risking your party. Keep in mind the information you get from them may not always be reliable.

    While you have been farming I have been learning the best tactics to employ to seize your property and your goods. I have been refining them since we hit the road right after the lights went out. I have conducted eight “hits” so far and have been successful seven times. Here are some of my “lessons learned”.

    Intelligence gathering and target selection is critical to my success. Targets include those who have large quantities of fuel, food and other valuable supplies. My posse is constantly questioning anyone and everyone we contact searching for this our next victim. Anyone who has ever had knowledge, even second hand, of your preparations is someone of interest to me. I may approach them directly or indirectly. If anyone knows something I will find out about it. Who seems well-fed? Who still has transportation? Who has lights? Who was prepared? Where are they exactly? Somebody talks, either in person or on the radio. They always do.

    We search for victims night and day. During the day we are listening for the sounds of machinery, cars, tractors, gunfire or generators. Day or night without a lot of wind those sounds can carry for miles. At night I look for any sort of light. Even a small flash indicates somebody with electricity and that means a rich target. I always have somebody listing to the scanner for any news, leads or insecure chatter.

    Operational Security (OPSEC) is an important concept for your entire group to understand and maintain. If somebody outside your circle doesn’t have a real need to know about your plans, preparations or procedures then they shouldn’t know period. Develop a cover story and live it like was a bulletproof vest. It is no less important to your protection and survival. During an event you need to blend in with the surrounding environment. Carefully observe noise (such as generators and other engines) and light discipline especially at night. If you need to test fire weapons do it in one sequence to avoid a prolonged noise signature.

    Once I find and target you reconnaissance of your retreat is my next step. Only a fool would try to rush in and try to overwhelm a group of “survivalists”. We had a bad experience with that during our second hit. Now we spend at least a day or two trying to size up a large opportunity and the best way to take it down. I will observe retreat activity from a nearby-concealed position. I will get an idea of your numbers, weapons, routines and so much more by careful surreptitious observation. If your group seems alert, I will try and trigger a false alarm with a dog or child to watch your reaction to a threat. That helps me know how you respond, where you are strong and how to attack. I may also obtain a topographical map of the area to identify likely avenues of approach and potential escapes routes you will try to use. I may coerce your neighbors into uncovering a weak spot or access point or other important intelligence. I also have a Bearcat handheld scanner. I will be listening for any insecure chatter from your radios.

    Regular patrols at irregular intervals focused on likely observation points and avenues of approach could keep me at bay. You could put down sand or other soft soil in key choke points as a way of “recording” if anyone has recently traveled through the land. Dogs, with their advanced sense of hearing and smell are able to detect and alert you to intruders well in advance of any human. Motion sensing IR video cameras as a part of a security plan could play a part in your layered defense as long as you have power. A 24 hour manned observation point equipped with high quality optical tools is a must. It should be fortified and if possible concealed. It should have a weapon capable of reaching to the edges of your vision. Seismic intrusion devices, night vision and thermal imaging are phenomenal force multiplying tools. They can give you critical intelligence and warning. You should use them if you have them. Understand they are not fool proof and I can often neutralize them if I know you have them.

    These tools and techniques provide you reaction time. Time to plan your response and time to execute that plan. Recognize that a “defender” is always at a disadvantage. By definition a defender will be reacting to my attack. Modern warfare has emphasized the ability of the attacker to operate faster than opponents can react. This can be explained by the OODA loop. Below are the four steps of the classic OODA loop. These are the steps a defender goes through when under attack.

    1. Observing or noticing the attack.

    2. Orient to the direction, method and type of attack.

    3. Deciding what the appropriate response will be.

    4. Acting on that decision.

    As an attacker I will try and operate at a pace faster than you as a defender can adjust to. I will change my direction, pace, timing and method to force you to continue to process through the OODA loop. This creates confusion and wastes your precious reaction time. As a defender you will need to disrupt or reset your attackers timing with a counter-attack. When you are successful you become the attacker. Your defensive plans should utilize and exploit this concept. Here are a few scenarios:

    1. Snipe & Siege

    I will begin the attack when I can engage at least half of your party’s military age personnel in one coordinated effort. I will infiltrate my team into concealed positions around your retreat within 50 to 75 yards. I will target any identified leadership with the first volley. Two thirds of my people will be engaging personnel. The other group will target communications antennas, surveillance cameras and any visible lighting assets. I want your group unable to see, communicate or call for help. The members of my band will each fire two magazines in the initial exchange. Two thirds of my group will change to new concealed positions and wait. One third will fall back into an ambush of the most likely avenue of escape. We will stay concealed and wait until you come out to attend to your wounded and dead. We repeat the attack as necessary until any resistance is crushed.

    Ensure you adjust the landscape around your retreat so that I don’t have anyplace offering cover or concealment within 100 yards of your residence. You can create decorative masonry walls that can be used to offer cover for personnel close to your residence. Fighting positions can be built now and used as raised planting beds and then excavated for use in the future. These can be extended or reinforced after any significant event. These structures or other measures such as trenching must be sited carefully to avoid allowing them to be used effectively by an attacker if they are overrun.

    2. Trojan Horse

    For one hit we used an old UPS truck. We forced a refugee to drive it to the retreat gate. We concealed half our group inside the truck. The truck was hardened on the inside with some sandbags around the edges. The other half of our group formed an ambush concealed inside the tree line along the driveway. We killed the driver to make it look good and had one person run away. Those preppers almost waited us out. After nearly three hours they all walked slowly down the driveway. They were bunched up in a group intent on checking out the truck and driver. It was like shooting fish in a barrel.

    They could have worked together as group to sweep the area 360 degrees around the truck and they would have surely found us. A dog would have also alerted the residents to our presence. They could have taken measures to eliminate the vegetation offering us concealment on the road near the gate. They could have used CS gas or something similar to “deny” any suspicious areas. Lastly they could have done a “reconnaissance by fire”. Shooting into likely hiding spots, including the truck, trying to evoke a response. They should have established an over watch position with the majority of their group. This over watch group would have provided visual security and an immediate response if there were an attack. They were not expecting any additional threats. They didn’t consider that there might be additional danger lurking nearby aside from the truck and they died.

    3. Kidnap & Surrender

    A few weeks ago we surprised and captured a couple of women out tending a garden. It was totally by chance. We were traveling through a very rural area on our way to another town when somebody heard a tractor backfire. We immediately stopped and I sent a small team to recon the noise. They bumped into a small party tending a field at the edge of their retreat. They seized two women and immediately dragged them back to our vehicles. We began negotiations by sending a finger from each one back to the retreat under a white flag. The rest was easy.

    This didn’t need to happen. Better noise discipline would have kept us from discovering their retreat. Some simple boundary fencing or tangle foot could have delayed us. The women should have been armed and aware of such a threat. If they has established an over watch for the garden they could have engaged us before we took our hostages or at least alerted the others that there was a problem. They also could have had a quick reaction SOP developed prior to this incident. That Quick Reaction (QR) force could have followed the kidnappers back to our vehicles and set up an ambush of their own. Rural retreat security is a full time job. If you snooze you may lose everything.

    4. Fire and Maneuver

    I don’t like this option but sometimes the prize is just too tempting. We typically infiltrate quietly at night to prearranged start points. We begin our attack just before dawn when your senses are dulled by a long night watch or from sleep. Based on our reconnaissance we divided your retreat into positions or zones that need specific attention. We prepare for battle by using an air rifle to target any lights or cameras. Our first priority is to engage any LP/OP site and destroy or degrade them as much as possible. I split my forces into two supporting groups. One group keeps the target position under constant fire. The other group also fires and maneuvers, closing on the target and destroying it with gunfire or improvised weapons. Many times these positions only have one occupant and the task is relatively easy. Often these positions are easy to spot and are too far from each other to provide any effective mutual support. We will work from one position to the next. In the darkness and confusion most of the defenders are disoriented and ineffective. They fall like dominos. We have also used motorcycles to negotiate obstacles and speed through cuts in the perimeter fence. Then throw Molotov Cocktails into any defensive position as they roar past. If you fall back into your residence we will set up a siege. If we can maneuver close enough, perhaps by using a distraction, we will pump concentrated insecticide into your building or we may introduce LP gas from a portable tank into the house and ignite it with tracer fire.

    If there was enough warning time from your OP you could execute a pre-planned response. Your planned response should be simple, easy to understand and execute. Half your group occupies your fighting positions, two to a position. The rest of your party establishes an over watch and concentrate its fire at the enemies trying to fix your positions. If you had more than enough prepared positions the enemy might not know where to attack. It would also provide more flexibility in your defense based on the direction of attack. I would use Night Vision if available or illumination from flares or lights as a last resort. Rats hate light.

    Usually people keep main access points blocked from high-speed approach. Likely avenues of approach should also be blocked or choked and kept under observation. Remember though what keeps me out keeps you in. Typically the common techniques of parking vehicles in roadways will only delay my approach not stop it altogether. An ordinary 12-gauge shotgun, shooting slugs, can stop most types of non-military vehicles at close range.

    Don’t forget the threat of fire or other non-traditional weapons in your defensive plans.

    You could create the illusion of a “dead end” for your main access road by positioning a burned out trailer home or a couple of burned out cars at the false “end” of the road. Concealing the fact that the road actually continues to your residence.

    Lastly, develop a plan to evacuate and evade capture. When faced with a significantly superior force it may be the only viable option. This should include simple, reliable communications or signals such as three blasts on a dog whistle. Your fighting positions and barriers need to be constructed to allow coordinated withdrawal in an emergency. You should establish a rally point and time limit to assemble. I believe this should be a priority in your practice drills. During a real emergency you may be able to rally, rearm and plan your own version of the “snipe and siege” to retake your retreat.

    Key messages:

    Your rural retreat defense can be visualized as a set of concentric rings:

    * Location – Location – Location: High and remote are best
    * OPSEC – Think of it as a form of armor or shield: Practice it and protect it.
    * Observation Post / Listening Post: Your first best chance to counter attack
    * Gates / Fences / other barriers: May slow me down. Might keep you in.
    * Fighting positions: Must provide mutual support and allow for evacuation.
    * Residence: Last line. Don’t become trapped
    * People, Planning and Practice

    Remember:

    * An aggressive and unexpected counter strike can win the battle.
    * Stay alert for multiple threats or diversionary tactics.
    * Criminals excel at feigning weakness to lower your guard.

    Don’t underestimate me.
    -Bark'n
    Semper Fi


    "The gun is the great equalizer... For it is the gun, that allows the meek to repel the monsters; Whom are bigger, stronger and without conscience, prey on those who without one, would surely perish."

  7. #52
    Member Array ConcealedG30's Avatar
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    Bark'n

    You just made me realize I need more ammo and a few more guns. By the way there are only two times you have too much ammo. One is when you are drownding the other is when your on fire.

    I have thought of some of these things, but its always interesting to find the ones you haven't thought of. That was actually very humbling in a very scary way, and I don't scare easily.
    Anticipation of Death is Worse Than Death Itself.
    Psalm 46:10 "Be still, and know that I am God;

  8. #53
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    The above also underlies the importance of security in numbers too. Having 24 hour watches, with 360 degree view, providing cross-support function. Unless you have a very large family, it will be imperative to co-ordinate with neighbors and form a support and defense community. This goes counter to the 'loose lips sink ships' philosophy regarding your preparations. Rather having sufficient preparations, and other resources to help at least some of your (unprepared) neighbors survive and get started may be an absolute must. If I recall correctly, this was one of the suggestions along with ideas for how this should play out here in this link: Captain Dave's Survival Guide One thing that it did mention is that you may consider taking in other families, but that there are certain things to consider when doing so. I can't recall if I first came across that link on this forum or another one, but the guide at that site is what first got me thinking about preparedness.

  9. #54
    Member Array dtox's Avatar
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    Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by glockman10mm View Post
    This is not a distant scenario. It has been happening for a long time. We have only been living on a false economy.
    Aint that the truth!!!

  11. #56
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    I don't quite buy into worrying about all the OPSEC, seismic sensor stuff. Fun reading though because its easier when its black and white. And much easier to imagine more ammo is the solution.

    The USA has "all the guns" yet relatively poorly armed 3rd world nations steal aid from us all the time. They don't use elaborate strike forces. They use posters of starving kids then steal the aid sent to help them by kind Americans. Why would it change on a micro level?

    Drug addicts, child abusers, and low lifes are slightly more common than Black Ops specialists.

    So my 2 cents is I would think the toughest thing for religious survivalists to deal with is the 4 year old starving child of a crackhead with one arm missing and a festering wound in its place send to the front of the compound with a bookbag and a note safety-pinned to her chest reading:

    "If you don't fill my bag with enough food and silver, my family will have to eat my other arm for dinner tonight."

    She's four and disabled. She can't work for her keep in any meaningful way. You can take the poor soul in and feed her for life and lose your resources that way, until her sister shows up the next week in the same condition.

    Or, you can comply with the note, donate some food and silver, and word will spread like wildfire in the crackhead community such that tomorrow 2 kids in the same scenario will show up in her place and you can lose your resources faster that way.

    Or you can turn her away and, count on it, you will see her back the next day with no arms, and a note referencing her feet will be next. You'll keep your resources but lose your heart and soul.

    I'd take the black ops assault any day over that.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1984 View Post
    I don't quite buy into worrying about all the OPSEC, seismic sensor stuff. Fun reading though because its easier when its black and white. And much easier to imagine more ammo is the solution.

    The USA has "all the guns" yet relatively poorly armed 3rd world nations steal aid from us all the time. They don't use elaborate strike forces. They use posters of starving kids then steal the aid sent to help them by kind Americans. Why would it change on a micro level?

    Drug addicts, child abusers, and low lifes are slightly more common than Black Ops specialists.

    So my 2 cents is I would think the toughest thing for religious survivalists to deal with is the 4 year old starving child of a crackhead with one arm missing and a festering wound in its place send to the front of the compound with a bookbag and a note safety-pinned to her chest reading:

    "If you don't fill my bag with enough food and silver, my family will have to eat my other arm for dinner tonight."

    She's four and disabled. She can't work for her keep in any meaningful way. You can take the poor soul in and feed her for life and lose your resources that way, until her sister shows up the next week in the same condition.

    Or, you can comply with the note, donate some food and silver, and word will spread like wildfire in the crackhead community such that tomorrow 2 kids in the same scenario will show up in her place and you can lose your resources faster that way.

    Or you can turn her away and, count on it, you will see her back the next day with no arms, and a note referencing her feet will be next. You'll keep your resources but lose your heart and soul.

    I'd take the black ops assault any day over that.
    Or, you could turn her away and surreptitiously follow her back to her camp, and kill them all in their sleep except for the armless girl and then bring her back home and use her to work the same scam on your neighbors.

    Or, adopt her. Your choice.
    -Bark'n
    Semper Fi


    "The gun is the great equalizer... For it is the gun, that allows the meek to repel the monsters; Whom are bigger, stronger and without conscience, prey on those who without one, would surely perish."

  13. #58
    Member Array 1984's Avatar
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    Or, you could turn her away and surreptitiously follow her back to her camp, and kill them all in their sleep except for the armless girl and then bring her back home and use her to work the same scam on your neighbors.

    Or, adopt her. Your choice.
    Sure.

    Have to decide if one's morals are defining characteristics, or if one decides what is right or wrong first by licking the finger and measuring the prevailing winds of the societal norms at the moment.

  14. #59
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    I can see several different scenarios and none of them are very pretty. One would be an economic collapse precipitated by economic events in Europe as previously mentioned. Another scenario would be a drastic cut in government entitlement programs in this country. A lot of angry voters are espousing this cut spending to the bone philosophy. The first month that the EBT cards aren't loaded and the government checks don't arrive, there will be rioting and looting in every major city in the United States. The third scenario is that the influx of immigrants from the south will eventually collapse the economy when they become the majority and the United States becomes the northern annex to Mexico.
    "The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come." ~ Confucius

  15. #60
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    I have often pondered about what a "meltdown" in this country would look like. I assume that large metro areas would look like a war zone in just hours. If you knew that cops were not comming, all hell would break loose in places that have products that people want. Sure lots of good folks will be helping others and that's fine. I hope be to one of them,,, for a few days. But,,, if there is not law enforcement, no electricity, no food in the stores ( even if you stole it) things would be much different. Thoughts like I would just go to the park and shoot a duck for lunch ( there are hundreds of ducks at the park) but what if I am the three thousandth guy to think that? No fuel at any price? No going to work, no credit cards, just you and loved ones hunkered down to last as long as it takes for order and services to be restored. I assume that neighbors will work together, maybe religious groups will organize to pool resources. It's not too outrageous to visualize a housing project with a barricade in the middle of the street and check points at all points of entry. Dark to dawn shoot to kill curfew's. Folks will organize them selves into service groups like security, food preporation, medical, emotional/religious support,food/fuel gathering ect. The TV show survivor is an interesting study in behaviour (I know it's not an real example of folks trying to survive) but one can learn a few things . Like many before me have said if you have someting to offer the group and are will to work for the good of all, welcome. If not, better keep moving. I anticipate the need for 24/7 security at my house or my neighbor hood, one can not sustain that alone. Store food, water, fuel if you can. Have a defense plan, increase your capability to survive. The" it would never happen here" is the worst thing you can believe.
    In a gun fight, you can not miss fast enough, to catch up.

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