Scenario: Financial system meltdown - Page 5

Scenario: Financial system meltdown

This is a discussion on Scenario: Financial system meltdown within the Carry & Defensive Scenarios forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by TimezoneGuy Store food, water, fuel if you can. Have a defense plan, increase your capability to survive. The" it would never happen ...

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Thread: Scenario: Financial system meltdown

  1. #61
    Distinguished Member Array noway2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TimezoneGuy
    Store food, water, fuel if you can. Have a defense plan, increase your capability to survive. The" it would never happen here" is the worst thing you can believe.
    Somewhere on the order of 20 years ago, I read a book titled The Fourth Turning. It was an absolutely enlightening read and I would very much like to find it again and compare to the present. The claim in the book was that history goes through a repetitive pattern of 4 cycles every 80-100 years and has since the ancient days. The 4th cycle, or the 4th 'turning' and hence the name is one where society reaches a crisis point where it can't continue to go forward without major changes. The basis according to the book, has to do with generational cycles and attitudes following a repetitive pattern with a predicable result. Historically, the crisis has meant major war, with the last one being world-war 2, though it doesn't have to be. Of course, this places us at or nearly upon the time for the next crisis. The authors quoted comments from people in the 20's and 30's prior to WW2 and the things that they had to say have an amazing parallel to today, with an overall sense that things were falling apart and were beyond fixing, including corruption in business and politics, lack of respect for society, crime and violence, economic recession, etc (kinda hard to remember too many specifics from a book read 20 years ago). The predictions for things that could spark a crisis included economic depression, terrorist attack, disease pandemic, etc. One of the major points to the book was that the event that sparks the crisis doesn't have to be of major significance in and of itself and in fact in other times would not cause such a response. Another point is that it is impossible to see ahead of time what will be the final spark that sets things off. Ultimately, the crisis causes a form of 'reset' switch to be thrown and societal change is brought about.

    When I look at everything going on today, both in the US and Europe, as well as the middle east, I wonder if indeed we are approaching this point and what will trigger it, and what will it entail if it does happen.


  2. #62
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    Its available here Amazon.com: The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny (9780767900461): William Strauss, Neil Howe: Books Actaully cheaper in paper than Kindle. Looks like a good read and I have a long flight ahead, I Kindled it. Thanks.
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  3. #63
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    Yeah, I'm gonna get it on Kindle too. At $13.99 it's one of the more expensive Kindle books I've bought, but it sounds like a good read so I'll probably get it later today or tomorrow.

    Thanks for the heads up!

    I just finished Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon by Gretchen Morgenson (Pulitzer prize winning business columnist for the New York Times) and Joshua Rosner (Forensic financial researcher).

    It was riveting but will really anger you at the greed and malfeasance from the execs at Fannie Mae (Jim Johnson), Freddie Mac, Countrywide (Angelo Mozilo), HUD secretary Alfonso Jackson, Goldman Sachs, Fed Chairman(s) Alan Greenspan & Ben Bernake and many others. They all get exposed and will make you seethe and want some blood. And the specific members of congress are not overlooked Chris Dodd, Barbara Boxer, Barney Frank and others.

    It's like a forensic dissection of the entire mortgage/housing collapse and trust me, no stone is left unturned. I was surprised at how much I already knew by paying attention and attempting to study it as it was happening, but I was stunned at how in depth this was and how widespread. A lot of the names of the players have been permanently etched in my mind and I just seethe when I hear about them or think about them. Scum sucking, greedy, corrupt.... And no one is in prison. In fact many of them are still in the financial world. It's like shining a light on a bunch of cockroaches!
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  4. #64
    Member Array dtox's Avatar
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    Another recommendation

    I'd like to also recommend a video on youtube called "Money as Debt". Here's a link to the full version: Money As Debt-Full Length Documentary - YouTube


    This is essential viewing. For me, it made me re-think everything I knew about the financial system based on the concept that money is created from debt.
    I won't spoil the ending but the conclusion I came to is that we must (but realistically cannot) "grow" our way out of this problem which we have before. The only way out is quantitative easing (money printing) which leads to hyperinflation.
    Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

  5. #65
    Distinguished Member Array noway2's Avatar
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    @bark'n and ksholder. I am interested to hear what you think of the book after you read it. After 20 years, it is one book that has still stuck with me as being an enlightening experience. Perhaps I will see if I can get a copy of it again and re-read it, then we can discuss it.

    Quote Originally Posted by dtox
    The only way out is quantitative easing (money printing) which leads to hyperinflation.
    Unfortunately, this is yet another parallel to the current state of the USA to Weimar Germany. At a previous job, I had a coworker who immigrated from Canada and whose parents had immigrated from Germany. He said that they used to talk about literally using a wheelbarrow to take a load of cash to the bakery to get a loaf of bread. I have heard a few experts discuss that adopting a protectionist economic stance would cause a painful, but temporary, hit of inflation but that afterwards the domestic economy would rebound. In actuality, this is one of my scenario concerns, that an economic cold-war with China could turn hot. If they do get labeled as a currency manipulator, which they are, and get sanctioned, they will undoubtedly react badly. If things escalate, seeing as all this debt and claims of foreign property ownership is really just a big game of lets mutually pretend ....

  6. #66
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    America is selling it's sovereignty piece by piece as well... They tried to sell the Pennsylvania turnpike to saudis fer cripes sake...

    as to the video linked above ...a statement made by the young trader "Goldman Sachs rules the world" ain't too far from right....

    Another good read? Griftopia by Matt Taibbi

    Are we doomed? I dunno. hope not...
    Rats!
    It could be worse!
    I suppose

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