Scenario: Financial system meltdown

[dtox]

Click the image for a larger version. This cartoon got me to thinking. Are you ready? And how would you respond to the lady in the Dilbert comic strip when she and her family come knocking?
Dilbert.jpg

[DefensiveCarry.com]

[ConcealedG30]

Probably not they way I should.

I will help those who help themselves.

Our Goverment seems to do a good helping the others.

[zacii]

She's gonna have to get past the piranha infested moat, mad cyborg elephants, nuclear land mines, feral saber-toothed cats, rabid squirrels and hungry armed kids, first.

[mlr1m]

She's gonna have to get past the piranha infested moat, mad cyborg elephants, nuclear land mines, feral saber-toothed cats, rabid squirrels and hungry armed kids, first.

My Mad Cyborg elephant supplier went out of business. Gave me some kinda lame excuse about endangered species act and the EPA clamping down on the dust they create when walking.
Do you have a reliable supplier?

Michael

[Guantes]

She could work for a few days food to take with her when she leaves later that day.

[glockman10mm]

This is not a distant scenario. It has been happening for a long time. We have only been living on a false economy.

[HotGuns]

Yep...its not a matter of IF, its a matter of WHEN.

[NCGunDude]

A gradual decline in our standard of living is also possible. The third world countries are going to run out of food, first, and everyone is going to be running to Uncle Sam, who will print more dollars, and give it to them to buy more food.

Peak oil, peak water, peak soveriegn debt, we're hitting the ceiling on a lot of this stuff. But, it's going to be a lot worse for second and third world countries than here. Our biggest threat is the welfare state, and what might happen if their food stamps run out, but even that is relatively easily contained. The longer term threat is unfunded entitlements. And we're back to square one, a gradual decline in our standard of living.

Unless something else happens, like a war between the super powers, there isn't much that's going to change.

One has to look at who the main conspirator behind all of the evil in the world, and the savior of the world, Jesus Christ, the only begotten Son of God.

[Tyler11B]

Well Dilbert should probably go ahead and bury her in the back yard

[shockwave]

This is one of those litmus test issues. Because there are two kinds of people in this world. Thankfully, my neighbors and colleagues are my type.

For example: Yesterday when I went to get the paper, I saw a dying raccoon in my neighbor's driveway. Sent him a text, and when I didn't hear back after an hour I called animal control. They took care of it. When I've got too many tomatoes coming in, I bring him the extras. When he has too many shrimp on the boil, he brings me the overage.

If there's a sale on guns or ammo nearby he lets me know. He's not home, and a strange car pulls into his drive, I challenge the occupants and ensure they are acquaintances. Etc.

Guy on the other side of my property, same thing. He's helped me so much over the years, coming out in 100-degree heat to rescue me from some foolish thing I've done, and I've pitched in to work with him on various projects when I see he needs a hand.

So in the event of an EOTWAWKI kind of deal, chances are pretty good that we'll be getting together and taking stock of ammo and water and suchlike, enlarging our perimeter and coordinating our defenses. Same with my professional colleagues. Our firm survives only as long as we all commit fully to our survival and best the competition.

By and large, when we see natural disasters occur in our country, looting and lawlessness are still unusual. Our national character appears to be fairly cohesive. Inner-city riff-raff notwithstanding, chances are good you won't have to fend off your fellow citizens with bullets. The other type of person is, well, riff-raff.

[Sticks]

The Diesel repair shop that I worked at started getting an influx of generators that would not start/stay running in 2006 (all bought in preparation for Y2K - were not used since then).

One of the customers made a comment to a coworker about whether or not he bought a generator or other such items that were in high demand for the collapse of the computer controlled systems. His response was, "I bought lead and powder. If the extremely unlikely happened and the systems did collapse, and it came down to a point where I needed something like a generator, or any other item I deemed necessary, I would find someone like you and take it."

[dtox]

There is a decline scenario that I've researched that will not be so gradual. Apparently, our banks are being allowed to value their assets (the things that keep them solvent) based what the assets WILL be worth when the recession ends, NOT what they are currently worth (mark to market). This is the same type of accounting that Enron did and you know how well that turned out. It seems stupid, but it was necessary to make these changes back in 2009 (or 08- I can't recall) because without them, the banks wouldn't have passed the government's stress tests. What this has done is to create "zombie banks" (google that and you can read better explanations from smarter people than me). These banks are so-named because they appear to be alive & well, but they are not.

Now, with that in mind, the scenario I picture is that a European country defaults (likely Greece), causing bond rates in the other over-indebted European countries to skyrocket, thus making it impossible for them to borrow money and causing those countries to default as well (i.e. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain) (google "PIIGS".) The banks that purchased those bonds will become insolvent and the Euro will collapse. Many American banks also own Greek and other European bonds, or are otherwise tied to European banks through loans and such, so that causes our Zombie banks to become insolvent (google "economic contagion" for a better explanation).

Now then, this starts a panic over here and the US government has to step in and nationalize the banks, and must spend trillions of dollars to secure the depositors. To give you an idea how much just 1 trillion is, if you were born in 100 BC (100 years before the birth of Jesus) and you spent 1 million dollars every single DAY from then until now, you still would not have spent 1 trillion dollars. (2111 years x 365 days x 1,000,000 = 770 billion) That's how much we're talking about here. Not just 1 trillion either. Many trillion. Anyway, the government doesn't have trillions of dollars to bail out the banks. So, two choices are left: Does the government let the US financial system collapse into a barter-town scenario, or do they print the money out of thin air (google "quantitative easing") in order to bail out the banks? Well printing money is what got Weimar Germany in trouble. That's the 1920's German government that printed gobs of money and caused such massive hyperinflation that it took a wheelbarrow full of money to purchase just one loaf of bread.

So, with no other choice, the government will print the money and everyone will have bank full bank accounts full of near-worthless dollars that they can use to purchase $50 a gallon gas which will double in price the next week.

Anyway, that's the scenario I've come up based on lots and lots of research. The only thing about it that is unknown is the timing. My guess is it could be as early as this fall. We'd have "Arab Spring" and "European Fall" both in the same year. If you want more information about what this will look like, you should google "fer fal". He lives in Argentina and their economy collapsed into a hyperinflationary spiral back in 2001. He lived through it and has a great blog. His entry called "Thoughts on urban survival" is awesome. If you want to see what a collapsed economy looks like here in modern America, google "Detroit". If you want to watch a real documentary on a town whose economy collapsed, rent Iron City Blues on Netflix.

All of this info may be new to you and a bit overwhelming, but just take your time and do some research and you'll see there are ways you can prepare. The good news is that everyone on this board is already ahead of the average Joe out there in that we have protection.

[PEF]

I'm more concerned about a CME - Coronal Mass Ejection of great magnitude. Google Coral Mass Ejection 1859. If that were to happen today, the power grid would be destroyed. Fuel production would stop. We do not have enough transformers to repair the grid, and even if we did, we would run out of fuel to tranport them in about 2 - 3 days. Water supplies / treatment halts, and you start to have a die off in cities in about 7 days. From there it all goes down hill.

The meltdown you can see coming. The CME we have about 1 minute warning and then it's over. Think about that, friends.

Do you have a hand pump well on your property?

[retsupt99]

Plan ahead, tough times are just around the corner. Unless one is living in a 'vacuum', anyone should be able to figure that out.
I still have neighbors who think that nothing major is going to happen...if it does happen, they'll just come to my house. Wrong answer! I love to help others who are willing to help themselves, but not those too stupid to prepare for the obvious.
We have too many entitlement programs in our country, and the 'work ethic' of our society has been effectively destroyed.
Even a four-year old knows something is not right...


My sister-in-law took her grandson (4 y/o) to a farm to pick vegetables for poor people (for a local soup kitchen).

While at the farm, she told him that they were picking food for the poor people.
During the 'picking process', while out in the hot sun and sweating a bit...the child asked, "Grandma, how come the poor people aren't out here picking their own vegetables?"

Even young kids have good questions...

[Hopyard]

Click the image for a larger version. This cartoon got me to thinking. Are you ready? And how would you respond to the lady in the Dilbert comic strip when she and her family come knocking?
Dilbert.jpg

See my new signature line.