? giving up your gun in an armed robbery. - Page 5

? giving up your gun in an armed robbery.

This is a discussion on ? giving up your gun in an armed robbery. within the Carry & Defensive Scenarios forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by QMASTERARMS Isn't what you are saying underestimating the threat? It is, and it isn't. Let's say 90% are amateur robbers and not ...

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  1. #61
    Member Array erichard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by QMASTERARMS View Post
    Isn't what you are saying underestimating the threat?
    It is, and it isn't. Let's say 90% are amateur robbers and not murders at heart. Some people look at that as good odds, some being foolhardy, and some being true operators at some point in their life. Fools leap in where angels fear to tread in many cases. For me, even with 9:1 odds that they are amateurs bluffing their skill set, I am going to comply in that situation. 10% risk of them killing one or more of us is too high for me, especially given I'm not an operator and given that they will only get some minor material things from all of us. I do think an experienced warrior could pull it off, and that the enemy would fold when they realized what they were up against...but not every last time.

    At some point you have to do a simple risk benefit analysis in your head quickly. Is the risk of several dead worth saving what you might lose.

    My risk benefit analysis shifts once I sense they are not just robbers but amped up psychos who are likely to be violent before leaving the scene. My guess, having seen so many incidents on video is that you can sense if the robbery is going to go down smooth and fast, or whether the risk of serious physical injury is ringing alarms bells in your mind. If it's the latter, it's time to act or plan an attack.

    As to giving up the gun, if providence were on my side and an opportunity opened to draw I would be more inclined to draw given they were patting everyone down (in general, not necessarily this particular incident), but it would not be an absolute aim. If the danger is too high relative to your skill set, one needs to be realistic.
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  2. #62
    VIP Member Array Fizban's Avatar
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    sometimes a person may not have a realistic chance at overcoming the threat he is faced with. In that moment a person must decide if they are going to try or simply allow the badguy to decide for them. If a badguy is pointing a gun at me, I don't give a flip what the odds are that he's a stone cold psycho or a hubcap stealer. If he is pointing a gun at me then he is the single most dangerous man in the world ( in my mind) and I will consider him as such. If faced with life threatening danger, my inclination is to fight if I cant just turn and go the other way. If I were the guy in the barber chair.. I would have done the same thing he did. I tip my hat to him, he's got grit.

    The worst injury I ever suffered was inflicted upon me by an individual who I was confident would not attack me. I was wrong
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  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fizban View Post
    If faced with life threatening danger, my inclination is to fight if I cant just turn and go the other way. If I were the guy in the barber chair.. I would have done the same thing he did. I tip my hat to him, he's got grit.
    In that incident, there was basically only one, very brief opportunity to act without one of them acting first. If that opportunity had not appeared, would you still fight, let's say with the shotgun aimed at you from 6 feet? Do the odds not matter to you at all? Do the potential losses not enter the equation? Maybe live to fight another day.

    A good battle movie I recently watched on Netflix portrays the warrior mindset against overwhelming odds. It's called "The Siege of Jadotville" and takes place in the Congo back in 1961. The Irish soldiers who represented the U.N. were ordered into a contested area of the Congo and told to defend their encampment/fort. By the end of the movie, these 150 fairly fresh faced Irish soldiers are up against what appears to be over a thousand enemy, which included French/Belgian mercenaries in addition to natives. They portray that never surrender attitude even when what they are defending is of little importance. I won't spoil the movie, but reality does eventually enter the picture. At some point, you need to ask is what I'm defending worth giving up my life today. Sometimes it will be, and sometimes not. The siege kind of reminded me of the Benghazi attack/siege with regards to reinforcements and a seemingly overwhelming enemy.

    My instinct tells me these guys in the video were about to finish up and leave absent any resistance from the customers, and I think the guy in the chair was somewhat lucky in addition to being a true warrior.

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  5. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichard View Post
    I have watched many, many of these defensive type videos. In the vast majority, when one actor gets taken down, the others are all scrambling to beam out of there, not in the least interested in fighting it out or helping their compatriot...however, you can't always count on it. The shotgun guy could very well have hit the good guy in the back as he was aiming down the shop, game over.

    In many ways, it's as much a psychological game as a match up of skill sets, and often the guy with the biggest coconuts wins the day. This guy outmatched them in b@lls that day.

    The big problem is that many/most of these guys have no concept of preserving life. That concept is an abstraction that doesn't resonate within them. Call'em psychopaths, or call them testosterone pumped up punks, but they simply don't have a developed sense of conscience yet. It's roll of the dice as to whether you are dealing with simply a robber or psychopath. Tough to sort out in a few seconds when they have their game faces on (ie. their psychopath face on.)
    No, the guy got lucky. The BG's were on each side of him. personally I would have taken shotgun sally out first.
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  6. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by QMASTERARMS View Post
    Here is a different scenario pre-911 BTW. In texas there was a place called the USAF information warfare center. General Minihan, former director of NSA, built it and that lead to his appointment as head of NSA. I was asked hypothetically by NSA office of chief scientist (whose name was George Cotter who reported to Minihan) and USAF Information Warfare Center in preparation for VASEX how would I penetrate and compromise that facility one of whose jobs was to control access to a SAC wing of B52 bombers with nuke ordinance.

    My response was am I a paid for terrorist in this exercise or a fundamentalist. They laughed and said whats the difference and I said one is cheaper than the other. So they said ok, your paid for version.

    My response was, I assemble two five man teams. One team is responsible for snatching the head IT guy and getting network autentication credentials. They have him record a message that he is sick and will not be in. This recording is played to record a voice mail to his boss. Once the credentials are obtained and message recorded then time for the 55 gallon burner drum, lye and sigh.

    Second team penetrates facility, knowing that rapid reaction force is 20 minutes response. Four blow a hole in the side of the building and kill everyone one in sight before blowing the equipment and the building to pieces.

    As the rapid reaction force shows up, fifth guy with a barrett 50 on another building roof starts creating chaos. Meanwhile the other four are leaving and shooting all that moves.

    Simultaneously, team two has used the codes obtained from the (old) IT guy and they have penetrated and disbled the SAC wing (sorry no lone zones just did not work out).

    The response from the DoD was, "but you were supposed to attack through the firewall!?"

    I just smiled and waved.

    The point was is if your opponent thinks asymmetricslly and you don't your toes up.
    Pretty crappy security. When I was guarding nukes for the Army our 30 MP's would chewed your team up. Our QRF had a 30 second scramble time plus F-16's followed by Apaches.

    Our security was analog. I guess that is the difference between the Army and the Air Force.
    My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

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    Let me die in a pile of empty brass."
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  7. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichard View Post
    It is, and it isn't. Let's say 90% are amateur robbers and not murders at heart. Some people look at that as good odds, some being foolhardy, and some being true operators at some point in their life. Fools leap in where angels fear to tread in many cases. For me, even with 9:1 odds that they are amateurs bluffing their skill set, I am going to comply in that situation. 10% risk of them killing one or more of us is too high for me, especially given I'm not an operator and given that they will only get some minor material things from all of us. I do think an experienced warrior could pull it off, and that the enemy would fold when they realized what they were up against...but not every last time.

    At some point you have to do a simple risk benefit analysis in your head quickly. Is the risk of several dead worth saving what you might lose.

    My risk benefit analysis shifts once I sense they are not just robbers but amped up psychos who are likely to be violent before leaving the scene. My guess, having seen so many incidents on video is that you can sense if the robbery is going to go down smooth and fast, or whether the risk of serious physical injury is ringing alarms bells in your mind. If it's the latter, it's time to act or plan an attack.

    As to giving up the gun, if providence were on my side and an opportunity opened to draw I would be more inclined to draw given they were patting everyone down (in general, not necessarily this particular incident), but it would not be an absolute aim. If the danger is too high relative to your skill set, one needs to be realistic.
    How many robbers have you ever met?

    I have arrested lots, they are not nice guys.
    My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

    And Lord, if today is truly the day you call me home
    Let me die in a pile of empty brass."
    Amen

  8. #67
    Distinguished Member Array GpTom's Avatar
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    When ever there is an armed robber there is a threat that somebody will get shot. You have to decide at the moment what your chances are of defending yourself. The more bad guys that are involved the more risk there is but all the more reason to look for cover first. I would not want to just stand there and try to shoot it out with more than one bad guy under any circumstances. I have made up my mind that I intend to use what ever fire power is needed to end the threat. If that means six shots for each bad guy that's fine. Three in mass and three at the head. It don't take much longer to make sure that the threat is stopped right away if that is how you train.

  9. #68
    Member Array erichard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Bob View Post
    How many robbers have you ever met?

    I have arrested lots, they are not nice guys.
    Yeah, I believe you, but it doesn't mean they aren't considering the math of doing time for a murder charge. I'm guessing, that like most predators, they want prey that costs them the least energy, risk, trouble, etc. If you move from armed robbery to homicide, you have to know enormous resources will be spent to catch you and that the sentence will be at the extreme. Then again some don't do the math and don't care one way or the other.

    To be clear, I'm saying when they have the drop on you, and the odds are against you in a very big way, you need to think differently than when the odds are more in your favor. When the odds are more in your favor, I'm not necessarily wondering if this particular guy is going to pull the trigger or not. I'll just intervene, take the shot, whatever. I'm not doing psychoanalysis when the odds favor me more. Conversely, if the odds are very high that a friendly is going to get killed by opposing the threat, I'm going to try to get a read on the guy and size up the situation. I get the sense that several responders plan to attack no matter the odds. Where's the common sense in that plan?

    I live my life by probabilities, not certainties.

  10. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichard View Post
    Yeah, I believe you, but it doesn't mean they aren't considering the math of doing time for a murder charge. I'm guessing, that like most predators, they want prey that costs them the least energy, risk, trouble, etc. If you move from armed robbery to homicide, you have to know enormous resources will be spent to catch you and that the sentence will be at the extreme. Then again some don't do the math and don't care one way or the other.

    To be clear, I'm saying when they have the drop on you, and the odds are against you in a very big way, you need to think differently than when the odds are more in your favor. When the odds are more in your favor, I'm not necessarily wondering if this particular guy is going to pull the trigger or not. I'll just intervene, take the shot, whatever. I'm not doing psychoanalysis when the odds favor me more. Conversely, if the odds are very high that a friendly is going to get killed by opposing the threat, I'm going to try to get a read on the guy and size up the situation. I get the sense that several responders plan to attack no matter the odds. Where's the common sense in that plan?

    I live my life by probabilities, not certainties.
    You give them too much credit. Most robbers are desperate people, they have no problem hurting you to get what they want. Math will not answer that question for you. They do not think or worry about the repercussions of their actions. They take what they want, when they want, if you resist they will hurt you.
    My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

    And Lord, if today is truly the day you call me home
    Let me die in a pile of empty brass."
    Amen

  11. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Bob View Post
    No, the guy got lucky. The BG's were on each side of him. personally I would have taken shotgun sally out first.
    There was a point early on in the video when the BG practically handed his shotgun to the guy sitting in the barber chair, albeit a risky move with the other gunman so close. Had the shotgun guy been alone an immediate disarm would have been on the menu.

    As far as luck goes, heck it worked. I'll take a last second field goal any day.
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  12. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Bob View Post
    Marines were not in MOG. It was US Army, Rangers, Delta, 10th mountain.

    Sorry to continue what's kind of a hijack, but just want to clear up a misunderstanding on a subject close to my heart...

    Marines were absolutely in the Mog.

    Marine recon units conducted the initial landing in Somalia and secured the airfield used for Operation Restore Hope. Those Marine units were famously compromised during their night time amphibious landing, when they came ashore and found US news media on the beach waiting for them. The overall operation was a UN-run humanitarian effort, and thousands of Marines were involved in that, to include hundreds of skirmishes with local militias in Mogadishu, although they faced stupid ROEs and had to sit back and twiddle their thumbs despite witnessing atrocities.

    TF Ranger was a joint special operations task force sent to Somalia with the sole mission to degrade the militia of Mohammad Farah Aidid and to ultimately capture or kill Aidid himself. His militia intercepted much of the UN aid and was a thorn in the urethra of the whole operation. TF Ranger acted on intelligence and staged many operations, nearly all at night, in efforts to c/k Aidid. The daytime raid that led to the 'Battle of Mogadishu' was a calculated risk, that led to the loss of two birds, 18 friendly KIA and hundreds upon hundreds of Somalis killed. Despite the heavy American losses this was one of the most one-sided battles in modern history. The Clinton Administration subsequently tucked tail and pulled everyone out, horrified, and the UN ultimately pulled the plug on Restore Hope, leaving Aidid free to do as he pleased.

  13. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Bob View Post
    You give them too much credit. Most robbers are desperate people, they have no problem hurting you to get what they want. Math will not answer that question for you. They do not think or worry about the repercussions of their actions. They take what they want, when they want, if you resist they will hurt you.
    I'll take your word for it.

    In your opinion, what percentage of armed robberies go down without someone being shot by the perpetrator vs. those where the gun is used? I don't know that stat, but always thought the vast majority of armed robberies finish with no one being shot or stabbed. That's one way of looking at the odds without examining whether robbers are nice guys or not or do the math or not.

  14. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by nmbr5 View Post
    Sorry to continue what's kind of a hijack, but just want to clear up a misunderstanding on a subject close to my heart...

    Marines were absolutely in the Mog.

    Marine recon units conducted the initial landing in Somalia and secured the airfield used for Operation Restore Hope. Those Marine units were famously compromised during their night time amphibious landing, when they came ashore and found US news media on the beach waiting for them. The overall operation was a UN-run humanitarian effort, and thousands of Marines were involved in that, to include hundreds of skirmishes with local militias in Mogadishu, although they faced stupid ROEs and had to sit back and twiddle their thumbs despite witnessing atrocities.

    TF Ranger was a joint special operations task force sent to Somalia with the sole mission to degrade the militia of Mohammad Farah Aidid and to ultimately capture or kill Aidid himself. His militia intercepted much of the UN aid and was a thorn in the urethra of the whole operation. TF Ranger acted on intelligence and staged many operations, nearly all at night, in efforts to c/k Aidid. The daytime raid that led to the 'Battle of Mogadishu' was a calculated risk, that led to the loss of two birds, 18 friendly KIA and hundreds upon hundreds of Somalis killed. Despite the heavy American losses this was one of the most one-sided battles in modern history. The Clinton Administration subsequently tucked tail and pulled everyone out, horrified, and the UN ultimately pulled the plug on Restore Hope, leaving Aidid free to do as he pleased.
    My understanding is that was navy SEALs that landed.
    My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

    And Lord, if today is truly the day you call me home
    Let me die in a pile of empty brass."
    Amen

  15. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichard View Post
    I'll take your word for it.

    In your opinion, what percentage of armed robberies go down without someone being shot by the perpetrator vs. those where the gun is used? I don't know that stat, but always thought the vast majority of armed robberies finish with no one being shot or stabbed. That's one way of looking at the odds without examining whether robbers are nice guys or not or do the math or not.
    I don't know. You cannot use a mathematical equation to judge human responses, they are too erratic. Who is to say you have the mild mannered robber or the bath salt face eating psychopath? That is the problem with statistics, which side of the bell curve are you on?

    I am not giving up my gun. At the first opportunity I will take out the robber/robbers. I refuse to put my life in the hands of a desperate individual with a deadly weapon.
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    My rifle and pistol are tools, I am the weapon.

    And Lord, if today is truly the day you call me home
    Let me die in a pile of empty brass."
    Amen

  16. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichard View Post
    I'll take your word for it.

    In your opinion, what percentage of armed robberies go down without someone being shot by the perpetrator vs. those where the gun is used? I don't know that stat, but always thought the vast majority of armed robberies finish with no one being shot or stabbed. That's one way of looking at the odds without examining whether robbers are nice guys or not or do the math or not.
    Personally, I'm not concerned with percentages, averages or statistics when considering or training for lethal force encounters with violent criminals.
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