My four most realistic scenarios I'm concerned about - Page 2

My four most realistic scenarios I'm concerned about

This is a discussion on My four most realistic scenarios I'm concerned about within the Carry & Defensive Scenarios forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; That's a pretty good list. The societal breakdown is a likely scenario around the gulf coast due to hurricanes. I lived in Pensacola during one ...

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  1. #16
    VIP Member Array Rhinoman's Avatar
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    That's a pretty good list. The societal breakdown is a likely scenario around the gulf coast due to hurricanes. I lived in Pensacola during one hurricane and there was looting within half a day of the hurricane passing through. Mostly people going through homes of the people who evacuated. My father in law was on oxygen and we took our generator over so he could come home. It was running his oxygen machine, fridge, and a small A/C unit for his bedroom. It was hot and humid, so I elected to sleep on his screened in porch. At around midnight I heard the generator shut off and looked over the porch rail and two guys were trying to carry away the generator.

    Home invasions have gotten a lot more popular because people have installed safes and security systems. The bad guy needs someone home to open the safe or disarm the alarm system.

    New security systems in vehicles with locking steering wheels and special encoded keys have made carjacking more prevalent. The bad guy needs the keys.
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  2. #17
    Senior Member Array SouthernBoyVA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bpurdy0 View Post
    There are a 3 car jacking scenarios I come up with and almost all of them end with me losing the car. It's not worth risking my life over something that's insured.

    1. Carjacker approaches me while I am outside of the car and demands my keys. I would toss the keys one way and run the other.
    2. Carjacker approaches from driver or passenger side window. I would attempt to drive away.
    3. Carjacker enters vehicle. I would jump out at my first chance.
    Of course I can only speak from my state...

    1. Carjacker approaches me while I am outside of the car and demands my keys. I would toss the keys one way and run the other.
    This is a robbery for which a deadly force response is justifiable. Whether or not one chooses to respond in that manner is entirely up to them.

    2. Carjacker approaches from driver or passenger side window. I would attempt to drive away.
    My car doors are locked at all times once I start moving. So anyone who approaches with the intent of carjacking my car is going to be stalled a little bit. If I was able to drive away, I would do this. If not, well carjacking is robbery so that reverts to the answer for question #1 above.

    3. Carjacker enters vehicle. I would jump out at my first chance.
    Now you are faced with not only a robbery but very possibly at attempted kidnapping. This one offers a number of scenarios that could be bad for the driver. To many variables to just have a pat response to this one.


    I make it a point to always go armed when out and about. When in one of my vehicles and in my state, I ALWAYS open carry my sidearm. I do this in order to have quicker access to it should I need to use it. I position my shoulder belt between the gun's grip and my body and position the gun in such a manner that will make it easy and unencumbered for a draw. I virtually never conceal my sidearm when in a vehicle, mine or anyone else's. I want to be able to get to that tool as quickly as possible under the circumstances should the need arise.
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  3. #18
    Member Array BuckeyeMike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmf552 View Post
    I think losing your car is not the only worry. The worry is that the guy may want more than your car. He may want to take you somewhere, like to an ATM. Afterwards, he might not want a witness. He may just want to take you somewhere convenient to kill you because he doesn't like how you look. Also, you may have other people in the car to worry about.Exactly, my concern is not about losing the car, its about ending face down in a dumpster. Seems to be how it usually goes.

    For that reason, I think your #2 and #3 are iffy. For #2, it would be a stupid 'jacker who would approach you when you could just drive away. It is more likely he will come at you when your engine isn't running yet or you have just shut it off or you are blocked in traffic. I try to keep a 360 scan going in those situations. If someone is approaching, I have a snubby in my console that can come out very quickly. If I see a weapon, I will shoot the guy right through the glass.

    For #3, a car jacker should never be able to get in your car. The doors should always be locked, except for the driver's door, just long enough for you to get in. If my some mishap, he does get in your car and has a gun, or even a knife and you have your seatbelt on, it is going to be hard to escape before he can do something to you. I prefer a good offense. I have a concealed, fixed blade knife wedged in part of the mechanism under my seat. It is very quick to get to. I am going to wait for, or create, an opportunity when his muzzle isn't on me and jam that in his throat. But again, I question how he gets there to begin with if you use your door locks right.
    I agree that situational awareness is the key but man you just never know what might happen.
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  4. #19
    Member Array BuckeyeMike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinoman View Post
    That's a pretty good list. The societal breakdown is a likely scenario around the gulf coast due to hurricanes. I lived in Pensacola during one hurricane and there was looting within half a day of the hurricane passing through. Mostly people going through homes of the people who evacuated. My father in law was on oxygen and we took our generator over so he could come home. It was running his oxygen machine, fridge, and a small A/C unit for his bedroom. It was hot and humid, so I elected to sleep on his screened in porch. At around midnight I heard the generator shut off and looked over the porch rail and two guys were trying to carry away the generator.

    Home invasions have gotten a lot more popular because people have installed safes and security systems. The bad guy needs someone home to open the safe or disarm the alarm system.

    New security systems in vehicles with locking steering wheels and special encoded keys have made carjacking more prevalent. The bad guy needs the keys.
    For sure and although I'm safe from hurricanes in the Midwest, I find it a remote but realistic possibility.

  5. #20
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    I don't have a list of most realistic. Stay vigilant and ready, anything can happen at any time, when you least expect it.
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  6. #21
    Member Array packnrat's Avatar
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    to me worst case is a home invasion.

    i am not rich. but have plenty of "toys". little to no cash. not even in the bank.

    but a meth head does not care. anything they can pawn is what they want.
    but good for this county, they shut down all the pawn shops, so a creep has to drive 40 miles to pawn anything. and most do not have working cars. no need for them as there walefair check is auto deposited at the local stop n rob. (got to pay the booze tab).

    while out and about. i am armed. i tend to know what is about. while up in the hills pot farms can be trouble.

    work is a problem.
    co says NO weapons. couple drivers have been placed in the er cause of crooks. so the co saved us by putting stickers on the doors of the rigs stating "driver carries no cash".
    maybe i will save the world, and buy a strobe light to scare away all the creeps.

    about to start using (needing) a walking stick. (body problems).

    .
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  7. #22
    Senior Member Array 19Kvet's Avatar
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    My worst case scenario is a car jacking- my 4 year old is often in the back seat so walking away simply isn't acceptable answer.

    A home invasion is pretty high up there for much the same reason but the 140lbs Great Dane is a lot of deterrent (or warning).

    SHTF- prepare for it but don't worry about it. It's just too big of a unknown to worry about every different way it could occur.

    However, I work in a "Gun Free Zone" that is on a public list of terrorist targets and that has me a little concerned- especially with my lack of confidence in the ramp rats checking IDs at the gates.

  8. #23
    VIP Member Array rammerjammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kerberos View Post
    My plan for carjacking...

    Let them have it, odds are they can't drive a stick shift.

    Me too. I figure while they're monkeying around with my stick shift it will be the perfect time to draw and fire on them in all their confusion.
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  9. #24
    Senior Member Array Strmwatch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeMike View Post

    The other scenario is in a SHTF situation:

    If a break down in social order should come, I think the most likely hazard is going to be road blocks. We've already seen it with protests this past year and its a tactic that has proven to be incredibly disruptive. For that matter its a tactic that has been used by the Russians recently in their preparations to invade their neighbors.

    I suspect this is a method that will continue to be used by protesters (and possibly help catalyze a break down in social order) as well as be utilized by thugs and no goods take advantage of people should they no longer be fearful of police. Although the chances of a SHTF situation is hopefully remote, that's the most likely scenario in which I think a person will find themselves having to use force.

    In a "SHTF" scenario....ALL bets are off, period.

    If something THAT bad has happened...ANYONE trying to block me on the road will get RUN over and/or shot...plain and simple.

  10. #25
    Senior Member Array 19Kvet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strmwatch View Post
    In a "SHTF" scenario....ALL bets are off, period.

    If something THAT bad has happened...ANYONE trying to block me on the road will get RUN over and/or shot...plain and simple.
    It depends on the SHTF scenario. Personally I've seen the after math of two SHTF situations:

    1) Post Katrina NOLA wasn't that bad but a lot of bad things happened and when the cops came back, they filled a lot of charges when they could (like the idiot kids that shot up my unoccupied rental car).

    2) The Balkans were bad but when the law returned (under UN/Nato forces) people were prosecuted for their crimes (almost exclusively we focused on violent crimes but public trust crimes had social repercussions).

    Unless we're talking the end of the Roman Empire type SHTF then you might want to keep in mind that actions have consequences.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeMike View Post
    There are three that I'm preparing for:

    The first and most likely is a car jacking/mugging. My work requires me to go into rougher parts of town and this is something I'm increasingly becoming concerned about as Toledo seems to be getting rougher.

    The second is a home invasion for which I've more than sufficient firepower to deal with.

    The other scenario is in a SHTF situation:

    If a break down in social order should come, I think the most likely hazard is going to be road blocks. We've already seen it with protests this past year and its a tactic that has proven to be incredibly disruptive. For that matter its a tactic that has been used by the Russians recently in their preparations to invade their neighbors.

    I suspect this is a method that will continue to be used by protesters (and possibly help catalyze a break down in social order) as well as be utilized by thugs and no goods take advantage of people should they no longer be fearful of police. Although the chances of a SHTF situation is hopefully remote, that's the most likely scenario in which I think a person will find themselves having to use force.

    I think by far the most likely danger we will face is that connected to a road rage incident.
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  12. #27
    Senior Member Array Strmwatch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 19Kvet View Post
    It depends on the SHTF scenario. Personally I've seen the after math of two SHTF situations:

    1) Post Katrina NOLA wasn't that bad but a lot of bad things happened and when the cops came back, they filled a lot of charges when they could (like the idiot kids that shot up my unoccupied rental car).

    2) The Balkans were bad but when the law returned (under UN/Nato forces) people were prosecuted for their crimes (almost exclusively we focused on violent crimes but public trust crimes had social repercussions).

    Unless we're talking the end of the Roman Empire type SHTF then you might want to keep in mind that actions have consequences.

    That's the "SHTF" scenario I was talking about.
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  13. #28
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    Timely post as I've been thinking about this lately. Particularly thinking about what training might be appropriate next. I'm not convinced I need combat reload drills, shoot houses, etc. I think if my gun is ever out of my holster in public it will most likely, though not 100%, be as a deterrent to something bad happening. I'm not looking to be an operator, or the fastest to draw and place six shots in three attackers. I want to be fast and accurate enough for what are reasonably possible situations I might find myself in. I need to think on this more critically.

    I live in a relatively low crime town in the Midwest. I don't worry too much about carjackings, or the usual bad guy(s) approaching me intending to do me harm. Meth is a big problem and causes people to do strange things, so I do watch for those gummers. I'm not big (5'9", 180), but I walk head up and on a swivel. I don't think I'm a likely target. If I am targeted, I don't own anything that isn't insured, so they can have it. I'll do what I can to avoid personal injury to me, my family, or loved ones.

    I think a more likely scenario is lone wolf attacks from radicalized individuals, race haters, or jilted lovers whose situation I just happen to be caught in. Just last week Homeland Security issued a warning that ISIS has encouraged lone wolf attacks on hospitals, theaters, and shopping malls. I work in a hospital, frequent both the live and movie theater scene, and spend more time than most people do in 2017 in a mall (teenage kids). SA is more important to me than ever, but I don't let it ruin my enjoyment of activities. And I try to remind myself to run first, hide second, fight last...but fight like hell if you have to.

    I think if you carry a handgun and own an AR with appropriate training and ammo for both, you are going to be waaaay ahead of the rest of the world if the S really does HTF. Here's a little prep idea for that - can you name the three closest gun/ammo stores to your home or place of employment? If it really comes down, I'm heading there to steal as much 9mm and 5.56 as my HD 3500 truck can carry as I run through any roadblocks - people, cars, cows, whatever.

  14. #29
    Senior Member Array 19Kvet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strmwatch View Post
    That's the "SHTF" scenario I was talking about.
    As long as you can predict when a garden variety SHTF scenario will become a total collapse of society then your actions would be appropriate.

    However, it would suck to think the world was ending only to be hanged by a court when the authorities reassert themselves.
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  15. #30
    Member Array Northface's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bpurdy0 View Post
    There are a 3 car jacking scenarios I come up with and almost all of them end with me losing the car. It's not worth risking my life over something that's insured.

    1. Carjacker approaches me while I am outside of the car and demands my keys. I would toss the keys one way and run the othere.
    That reminds me that my house keys and other important keys are on the same ring. May be time to rethink that.
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