Crime in decline, but why? Low inflation among theories
This is a discussion on Crime in decline, but why? Low inflation among theories within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; The more the BGs are aware that the good guys MAY have guns, it does work to deter some elements of crime. Nothing scientific on ...
September 20th, 2011 01:06 AM
The more the BGs are aware that the good guys MAY have guns, it does work to deter some elements of crime. Nothing scientific on my part, just common sense, so don't ask for proof or evidence....just my opinion.
Know Guns, Know Safety, Know Peace.
No Guns, No Safety, No Peace.
September 20th, 2011 09:30 AM
""""Still, experts worry crime rates might go up again after a nearly 10 percent drop per capita in police budgets in recent years.
"Lots of cuts in crime control and crime prevention," says Fox, "can create problems in the future in keeping crime rate low."""""
I think some large police departments (NY City & LA), are worried about budget cuts......
To sit back hoping that someday, some way, someone will make things right is to go on feeding the crocodile, hoping he will eat you last - but eat you he will.
September 20th, 2011 09:34 AM
If you want to find out why more guns equals less crime, then read more guns less crime by John R. Lott JR. He has about 30 years research of all countys and cities in the U.S. It is worth reading and will answer a lot of questions.
September 20th, 2011 09:56 AM
Here's a thought for consideration. Illegal immigrants deal in cash and often carry a lot of it. They also don't report crimes when they are the victim, so crimes against the immigrant population don't show in the statistics. That's not the only reason for declining crime rates, but it is one that is often overlooked.
"The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come." ~ Confucius
September 20th, 2011 10:01 AM
Hum, John R. Lott Jr.?
Originally Posted by foxytwo
Is that the same John R. Lott Jr. who wrote the article in 2008 calling the 'Recession' a media myth? And even suggesting it was some sort of liberal conspiracy against the Bush administration?
The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth - Opinion - FOXNews.com
It's official: U.S. in a recession since December 2007 - Dec. 1, 2008
September 20th, 2011 01:12 PM
Yeah a lot of folks have debunked John Lott at times. But the fact is, that there are NO conclusive arguments for either side of this argument, according to scientists who studied the published results of both sides.
Originally Posted by ITW
There is no one answer. If you don't think carrying a weapon will keep you safer, don't do it. If you think it will keep you safer, carry on.
For me it's simple. According to the National Safety Council, my odds of dying are 1 in 306 that it will happen by assault with a firearm. Those are about the same odds (1 in about 314) that I will have a house fire requiring the services of a fire department. I've already had one of those, so I have a fire extinguisher, to give me a fighting chance next time. I carry a handgun to give me a fighting chance in the event of a firearms assault.
Good luck, ITW, in whatever you choose to do.
It could be worse!
September 20th, 2011 02:18 PM
I had an interesting conversation with a federal inmate who stated he was glad he is no longer into burglarizing homes, and noted the danger of getting your arse shot off these days if you do.
This statement alone from a convict is more indicative and telling to me than all the think tank statistics proposed so far in this genre.
" Blessed is that man, who when facing death, thinks only of his front sight"
September 23rd, 2011 10:53 PM
What percentage of felons want to get shot while commiting their crime? Probably a fraction dont care or welcome getting shot, but the vast majority want to get away alive in order to do moar stoopid crap...so guns matter IMHO.
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September 24th, 2011 12:13 AM
The reason is probably more subtle than anything to do with firearm ownership among the public. That rate is still around 5 percent or so (CCW).
If you've read any of the Freakonomics books, you'll know that causality is not correlation. That is, even if you have rising rates of gun ownership, and you have falling crime, that doesn't necessarily mean that one causes the other.
More likely, the depressed economy makes the prospect of encountering the criminal justice system much more daunting. In the old days, if you got arrested, you got someone to bail you out, got an attorney, maybe did a little time. Very different today. There are heavy court costs, you'll pay for your time in jail, fees and charges all over the place, on top of the other stuff - which is much more expensive now.
Money being tighter, it means you'll likely do a lot of time and not get bail, so the price of committing crime has gotten high enough that it's likely a strong deterrent in and of itself. What? You gonna mug some housewife leaving Wal-Mart for her purse? You'll snag a debit card and maybe $20 in cash, and risk a 10-year term in the slammer. Probably something more like that.
"It may seem difficult at first, but everything is difficult at first."
September 24th, 2011 11:33 AM
Mmmmm, could it possibly be that crime is sometimes NOT being reported to show a drop in the rates of certain crimes...either intentionally or because of a lack of personnel?
The last Blood Moon Tetrad for this millennium starts in April 2014 and ends in September 2015...according to NASA.
Certified Glock Armorer
NRA Life Member
October 27th, 2011 02:03 AM
Did you read the Lott article you cited? His point was the media reported "recession" under Pres. Bush when the economic figures were as good or better than they had been under Pres. Clinton, when the media did NOT report "recession."
And, he closed this way:
The news media have generated a lot of fear. Ben Stein has a point when he says “The actual economic conditions are not that bad. I think if we have a recession, if we have a serious recession, a great deal will lie at the media’s feet.” Hopefully a little perspective will enter the picture before even more harm is done.
Originally Posted by ITW
October 27th, 2011 02:12 AM
54% of people make up 86% of the statistics they quote.
I made those numbers up.
"For the Lord your God will bless you in all your harvest and in all the work of your hands." Deuteronomy 16:15
October 27th, 2011 02:19 AM
One thing that comes to mind is that thing call "Election Year" next year.!.!.!
NO No no that can not be it!!!
Let me think about it some more...I'll have to get back to you.
October 27th, 2011 11:23 AM
This is not true at all, the Vice-President Joe Biden says crime is on the rise! Rape is up, murder is up!
Ruger LC9 (when the girlfriend lets me carry her gun)
"First Duty is To Remember"
October 28th, 2011 10:13 AM
As much as I'd like to agree with this concept as a gun nut, correlation does not equal causation... even when it suits my needs.
Originally Posted by CDW4ME
Diet Coke consumption has increased since the 1990s, that doesn't mean that diet Coke consumption reduces crime.
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