Write up on Carson City IHOP

[oakchas]

This is your shot:

Capture.JPG click the pic to enlarge

Using Google, I put "feet on the ground" at the site... in the view here you are across the parking lot at about the same distance you would be if you were the BBQ owner... the front of the IHOP is in front of you... the entrance to the IHOP is to the right of the white and black vehicles parked in the front row, under the gable (I think).

How is that shot looking to you, now?

In order to get close enough to be effective, there's a lot of parking lot to cover... we don't know how busy it was on that day... there could have been more vehicle cover... or not.

Gabe, you (or your instructors) might be able to make the shot, would that be a one shot kill? Sure, a non-moving paper target at 100 yards is "doable;" braced, on a range. Head shot? Disabling shot? Red dot?

No, for me the shot is not doable.

Could I get close enough, in time? Could any ordinary Joe? Is this what is EXPECTED of those who carry for SD? I don't think so. Would LE make this shot with a pistol, or call for backup SWAT sniper, or run in gun a-blazing?

To train for this is the "Sheepdog" mentality that it is incumbent on CCW permit holders to be all the things we are not supposed to be... Super hero warriors, LE, and trained killers all in one...

In a scenario I recently posted I asked "If you saw a KNOWN badguy shooter 10 feet away, drawing a weapon on a teller to repeat what he had already done once before (get the money and shoot the teller anyway), Would you shoot?" I say yes to that, it is a shot I can make.

This shot, presented here, not so much. Would I try something? maybe. that's the best I can offer. MAYBE>

[DefensiveCarry.com]

[azchevy]

Everybody has their reasons. Maybe he had a bigger responsibility to the family that relied on him coming home to them every night than the sheep who refused to exercise their right to carry and defend themselves and now were target practice for a phsyco?

Everyone can talk big and armchair quarterback a situation they themselves have not been involved in, but that guy obviously had priorities and he probably went home and kissed them goodnight that evening. I do not fault him for that.

[mcp1810]

That is a decision I hope I will never have to make. So many variables to weigh in a split second. A number of active shooters have taken their own lives at the first sign of resistance. Will he be like them?
Do I have a clear shot? Do I have a good back stop beyond him? If I take the shot and he does not go down did I miss or hit body armor? If I take the shot and miss, but miss close enough for him to notice will that be enough? Or did I just blow my chance of closing the gap? Do I have cover that I can use to advance on him? The flip side of that is if I take the shot and don't put him down, does he now have cover to advance on me? What qualifies as cover for him may only be concealment for me. Not a lot of answers that would give me the warm fuzzies.

One of the most important things I learned in the fire academy is that I can't save everyone. Some times there is a very fine line between risking ones life and throwing it away. No matter what you decide, in the aftermath someone is going to say it was wrong. The only question is will you be around to hear it?

[Gabe Suarez]

Gents,

When I wrote the article I expected it to be discussed in many places and I must say that this place, along with my own forum has the most dispassionate and educated discussion going. Very nice. Many other places let emotion and anger that I dare question their image of how things should go guide their discussion, and that, as we know, leads nowhere.

First point - that we are monday-morning quarter backing the event. Well, yes. As unpopular as that may be in American sports, how else are we to learn from an event and from the actions of those involved? I recall from my SWAT days that we monday morning quarterbacked everything. As well, I know that my friends in the current spec-ops community do the same. And if I am involved in a gunfight today, I expect you will do the same with my own actions. It is what it is, hopefully a learning tool, and not something to get one's ego in a twist over.

Second point - the idea that you carry ONLY to protect yourself and your family. Well, as I said...one cannot fault that view, but the other side of the coin is that you cannot be everywhere can you? And if I was there, but you were not, would you want me to have the same view about intervening? Again...this becomes a big emotional thing to some. Kinda like telling a girl that those pants do in fact make her look fat. Her tears will not eliminate the fact that she weighs 300 pounds.

Third point - Capability. Some guys cannot and that is that. The older gent with the bad eyes and arthritic fingers using the walker? He's not going to be able to do anything here regardless of what his heart tells him. Now that is an extreme, but as old Harry C used to say, a man must know his limitations. But my own corrolary to Harry is that every man should seek to extend those limitations in skill development and training.

The BBQ man did not say he was physically feeble, nor poorly armed. The only reason he sited was distance and disparity of tools. Those were the reasons illustrated in the piece. He was close enough to have been able to see everything however. So from what I get of the statements, there was no ambiguity of what was happening.

Look guys...the point here...the most important point is this. This event was not unusual at all in our times. It keeps happening and whether the killer is a nut with an axe to grind, or some sort of terrorist, the authorities will never be in time to save anyone. All one has to do is look at the list of shootings to see that. The only people that will be in a position to act will be people like you...hopefully skilled and trained CCW civilians. I am not asking anyone to do what they know they cannot do, only to not sell themselves short on what they can accomplish. If every CCW person simply ran for their life, then guys like Hasan, Sencion, Talović, and others like them will always succeed with their plans, innocents will die, and nothing will change.

Another write up by one of our staff, John Chambers (former US Army LRS) on the Fort Hood murders.
WARRIOR TALK NEWS - Lessons from Jihad in America

[Harryball]

This is your shot:

Capture.JPG click the pic to enlarge

Using Google, I put "feet on the ground" at the site... in the view here you are across the parking lot at about the same distance you would be if you were the BBQ owner... the front of the IHOP is in front of you... the entrance to the IHOP is to the right of the white and black vehicles parked in the front row, under the gable (I think).

How is that shot looking to you, now?

In order to get close enough to be effective, there's a lot of parking lot to cover... we don't know how busy it was on that day... there could have been more vehicle cover... or not.

Gabe, you (or your instructors) might be able to make the shot, would that be a one shot kill? Sure, a non-moving paper target at 100 yards is "doable;" braced, on a range. Head shot? Disabling shot? Red dot?

No, for me the shot is not doable.

Could I get close enough, in time? Could any ordinary Joe? Is this what is EXPECTED of those who carry for SD? I don't think so. Would LE make this shot with a pistol, or call for backup SWAT sniper, or run in gun a-blazing?

To train for this is the "Sheepdog" mentality that it is incumbent on CCW permit holders to be all the things we are not supposed to be... Super hero warriors, LE, and trained killers all in one...

In a scenario I recently posted I asked "If you saw a KNOWN badguy shooter 10 feet away, drawing a weapon on a teller to repeat what he had already done once before (get the money and shoot the teller anyway), Would you shoot?" I say yes to that, it is a shot I can make.

This shot, presented here, not so much. Would I try something? maybe. that's the best I can offer. MAYBE>

Oakchas you make very good points. I think It all depends on the individual. Personally having been exposed to active shooter scenarios, I would engage after closing ground. I wouldnt expect someone that hasnt had that type of training to do so. The gentleman at the BBQ joint, probably made the right call for his skill set. I can not fault him for that decision.

[Hkchris]

I read the article last night and mostly agree.
His standpoint is that you should carry a full size semi with RMR holo-sight and train (pictured in Gabe's AVATAR above). A 75-100 yard shot with this set-up is very do-able. The problem is we don't train as we fight and many carry a tiny gun that is comfortable for them, those people should not take the shot.

The article is meant to be thought provoking.

What will you do when a coordinated, multi-team, terrorist group attacks the mall/resort/church/school you or your kids are at. Me, I'm taking the shot. Hopefully I can close the distance first, but if not I'm taking a knee and sending well aimed rounds down range.

[eb]

Thanks for the pic oakchas, that just further solidifies in my mind that ground would have had to have been closed in order to consider taking that shot. Looks like the IHOP which is made of mostly windows was a likely backstop which to me is a no-go on slinging a round that way unless I can get real close.

I guess the issue I have, is with with the notion that CCW holders are supposed to be some sort of unofficial militia/vigilante force with a "combat mindset". CCW is designed for defensive actions IMHO, and closing to engage a threat is an offensive action. While some may choose to engage the target which is a personal choice, I don't think anyone can be faulted for doing what the BBQ owner did. I would venture to say most of us are not superheros, not ex-military or ex-LEO's, not formally trained in an extensive fashion (ie programmed to "kill"), etc. Most of us just don't want to be a victim, and if the opportunity arises to aid in a situation like this in which we're reasonably certain we can return home to our families, I'm guessing most of us would do what we can. That BBQ owner didn't feel like he could return home that night if he engaged, which is perfectly fine. He didn't sign up to be a firing squad or Navy seal, and its probably better he didn't engage if he doubted the circumstances. As someone who owns several AK-47s, I would say if you tried to take that shot... and missed, look out. That is an accurate rifle capable of rapid fire that can easily punch thru a car with FMJ rounds. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be on the wrong end of that thing armed with a 45 or 9mm handgun. This guy had a deathwish, and unless you scored a VERY lucky headshot or other insta-incapacitating shot on him (which is unlikely statistically), chances are even if hit, he's still coming at you firing that assault weapon. Bad scene. I'll help if I can, but as someone said earlier, I'm not throwing my life away either.

[limatunes]

Gabe,

It's good to get you involved in the conversation personally. I'd much rather have you respond to my comments about your article than someone else.

Second point - the idea that you carry ONLY to protect yourself and your family. Well, as I said...one cannot fault that view, but the other side of the coin is that you cannot be everywhere can you? And if I was there, but you were not, would you want me to have the same view about intervening? Again...this becomes a big emotional thing to some. Kinda like telling a girl that those pants do in fact make her look fat. Her tears will not eliminate the fact that she weighs 300 pounds.

To answer that question... Personally, because I understand the prudence of carrying for myself and my family only I would hold you to my own standard. If my husband, son, daughter, were in that IHOP and you were across the street and did not intervene I would have or hold no animosity toward you. Perhaps, in my grief, I might have that thought flicker a time or two but the reality is that as adults I believe we cannot expect anyone else to protect us.. not even the police. The police could have arrived and sat outside waiting for backup and they would have every right to do so.

I believe self defense is every citizen's responsibility and that includes the citizens inside of the IHOP. Thankfully, I have a husband who also carries and is well trained and my prayer would be not that someone from the outside was taking care of the shooter but that my husband was doing what he was trained to do and taking care of business himself.

I do not and will not blame anyone else (police and military included) for not doing what is not their responsibility to do. My life and the lives of my family are my and my husband's responsibility... PERIOD.

If people want to volunteer themselves to help me or my family I will be grateful and appreciative but it will not be something I expect or get angry about if it doesn't happen.

Third point - Capability. Some guys cannot and that is that. The older gent with the bad eyes and arthritic fingers using the walker? He's not going to be able to do anything here regardless of what his heart tells him. Now that is an extreme, but as old Harry C used to say, a man must know his limitations. But my own corrolary to Harry is that every man should seek to extend those limitations in skill development and training.

The BBQ man did not say he was physically feeble, nor poorly armed. The only reason he sited was distance and disparity of tools. Those were the reasons illustrated in the piece. He was close enough to have been able to see everything however. So from what I get of the statements, there was no ambiguity of what was happening.

I'll be very honest in saying that I have never taken a 100 yard shot with a handgun. On a typical day I carry either a Glock 19 or a Wilson Combat 4.1" 1911. I have every faith that both of those firearms could make such a shot and I know myself well enough to know I couldn't go to a range, walk out to 100 yards and hit a man sized target with either pistol. With a little practice and work, I could, but right now, no.

At an IDPA match I went to last year sometime we had a stage where we ran to 25 yards and shot at a stationary target. I took three shots and hit the target only once in the shoulder when the previous day I was able to put multiple rounds in a 2" group at 25 yards.. I have no idea what made the difference from day to day... perhaps just the pressure of being on the clock and having finished a short run.

But when I think of that and think of the pressure of your average individual even attempting a 100 yard shot, at a man, in a civilian environment I begin to shake my head. Yes, there are men out there that can do it and do it regularly, but as I see people who can't even hit paper or get a 10" group at 7 yards who are carrying pistols I can COMPLETELY understand why they would look at a 100 yard shot and think, "NO WAY!" and rightly so.

Not to mention if you do miss and your shooter turns and opens fire on you he has a MUCH better chance of hitting you than you do of hitting him. I have shot many things much smaller than man-size at 100 yards with rifles and wouldn't want to be opening up combat with a man with a rifle at that distance when I'm not confident with my skills armed with a handgun. Do not like those odds at all.

This event was not unusual at all in our times. It keeps happening and whether the killer is a nut with an axe to grind, or some sort of terrorist, the authorities will never be in time to save anyone. All one has to do is look at the list of shootings to see that. The only people that will be in a position to act will be people like you...hopefully skilled and trained CCW civilians. I am not asking anyone to do what they know they cannot do, only to not sell themselves short on what they can accomplish. If every CCW person simply ran for their life, then guys like Hasan, Sencion, Talović, and others like them will always succeed with their plans, innocents will die, and nothing will change.

I do agree with you here. I do agree that many people do sell themselves short. But I do think an honest individual who carries a gun should constantly be reevaluating him or herself and assessing their skill levels.

There was a time I would feel MUCH more confident making those shots or even running into the fray than now. I'm 7 months pregnant with severe hip pain and haven't been on a live range in those seven months. I know from my experience with my last pregnancy that my shooting skills deteriorate during my time off and I hate it. After my last pregnancy I had to go back to the bare-bone basics to get back to the place where I was making consistent 25 yard shots. I also had to move from a .45ACP to a 9mm because I had lost the control I once had with the .45. I needed to be honest with myself and evaluate what I was currently capable of doing vs what I was ONCE capable of doing.

Like you said, there are people who were once capable but realize that they no longer are... someone THINKING they can do it when they can't and running into it could get additional people killed or, at least, add just one more body to the count.. best case scenario they get lucky. Granted, you'll never know what you're capable of until you try but it's better that you "try" in training a few times and get a good idea before you "try" in the midst of a shootout with a man with a rifle.

I believe what would be better than just one guy running towards the gunshots would be every single capable adult in that IHOP immediately standing up and taking responsibility for his or her own lives.... THAT would put a stop to things REAL quick.

But, that's all Lima theory.

[Hkchris]

Reason to have a "truck gun" or if you own a business a "Biz gun"? Maybe a 30-30 or AR.

[oakchas]

Let's take this moment by moment.

from the original post >>>here<<<

in the article in the Nevada Appeal We see the statement of the BBQ shop owner:

Ralph Swagler, owner of the adjacent Locals BBQ restaurant, told the Nevada Appeal that he saw the gunman pull up in a minivan, get out and begin firing an automatic rifle at the IHOP. The gunman then reloaded and went inside the IHOP, and Swagler said he heard more gunshots inside the restaurant.

Nevada Appeal article

Sencion pulls up. Exits his van, I assume near the entrance... perhaps just in the driving lane blocking much view of him... does he shut the door of his van? who knows?

On exiting, he starts shooting an automatic weapon (maybe it was semi-auto?? they were looking into that) That's what? Let's say 3 seconds from out of the van to firing...

From age 30 to 50 it takes 10-12 seconds to run a 100 meter dash (and that's practiced athletes ("Masters")), with no obstacles, and running gear on.

After you have mentally registered the gunfire, and reacted: by the time you have reached near him (if you are a Masters class runner), he should have been able to reload (as in the statement above) and gone into the IHOP. He is now in the restaurant. You have not yet entered, there is gunfire inside... People are dying.

You may not have a clear shot if you can enter, you are assessing ... and we all need time to assess the situation and gain whatever tactical advantage we can.

By now, he's on his way out... Okay, you are behind cover and he is exiting. You take him out... good on you... but you have NOT saved any lives, when he exited, he sprayed bullets all over but killed no one else but himself anyway.

I really don't think there's time to do much here guys... Super hero powers or not... The whole thing took minutes... maybe, I don't recall seeing a time line except that the sheriff was giving a time line that included the word "moments" regarding after the initial 911 call... "Moments" in response time is too long, we all know that, but LE can't be everywhere.

And, while I am not a professional, as Gabe is; most of the "professionals" I know, LE & military included, are NOT going to approach this guns a blazing from the onset.. they will assess, they will get back up, the would call in air support... Those that wouldn't get posthumous awards for courage and bravery... even when nothing they did changed the outcome.

In this case I think, there is the opportunity to stop the bad guy but the time constraints make it nearly impossible to change the outcome, save for the bullet that took the BG out (yours instead of his).

I mean no disrespect here... And maybe in an ideal situation, you could shoot him from 50 yards out... or even a hundred... But then, this is not the ideal... the range is not clear (there are intervening obstacles) between you and the target, Even if you take the shot at 50 yards you have used up 5-6 seconds, and he could already be inside... You may not be able to see him clearly through the glass of the IHOP, there will be some deflection if you did shoot through the glass...

This is not a training exercise... you were not called into an "active shooter" Scenario, you are there from the outset... with NO preparation except that you have your gun and have trained in similar situations, and there are decisions to be made and the clock is ticking too fast.

That's just my opinion... You may be able to pull it off... But if you did, you'd be the beneficiary of a miracle.

[Hkchris]

Another point: the Soldiers who were targeted ARE NOT ALLOWED to carry a gun in uniform.

[Guantes]

Two words........North Hollywood.

How many officers with handguns and shotguns against two individuals with FA AK-47s and body armor. It didn't go so well for them.

It is still unknown if the IHOP shooter had a FA AK. You would not know if he was wearing body armor. Granted, there was only one shooter, so if you reduced the numbers you still had ten or fifteen cops per shooter, not one on one.

While most would like to affect the outcome if they could, those are some very long odds.

[azchevy]

Two words........North Hollywood.

How many officers with handguns and shotguns against two individuals with FA AK-47s and body armor. It didn't go so well for them.

It is still unknown if the IHOP shooter had a FA AK. You would not know if he was wearing body armor. Granted, there was only one shooter, so if you reduced the numbers you still had ten or fifteen cops per shooter, not one on one.

While most would like to affect the outcome if they could, those are some very long odds.

I back that up with the Tyler, Texas courthouse shooting.

Arroyo, who had parked and lay in wait nearby the courthouse, approached his ex-wife and son on the steps outside the Smith County Courthouse and fired on them with a semi-automatic MAK-90 rifle, a semi-automatic rifle styled after the AK-47 rifle. Maribel Estrada was hit in the head and killed instantly, and Arroyo Jr was hit in the leg and wounded. Both fell to the ground at the front courthouse steps.

Nearby law enforcement and law enforcement officers already present at the courthouse responded to the initial shots and began exchanging fire with Arroyo. At this point, the law enforcement officers were only armed with pistols, and Arroyo was able to wound several and force them to retreat.

A local resident, Mark Allen Wilson, was in his downtown loft when he heard the shooting begin. He looked out his window and saw Arroyo at the courthouse steps engaged in a shootout with law enforcement. Wilson, who held a Texas concealed handgun permit immediately armed himself with his Colt .45 caliber pistol, and left his residence to intervene in the gun battle. Because Arroyo was already engaged in a heated gun battle with sheriff's deputies and Tyler police officers, he did not see Wilson approach from behind.

As Wilson approached Arroyo from behind, Arroyo was taking aim at his son who he had already shot in the leg and wounded. Acting to defend the life of Arroyo's son, Wilson fired a round from approximately 50 feet which struck Arroyo in the back causing him to stumble and taking his attention away from his son. A witness who saw Wilson's round strike Arroyo reported seeing "white puffs of powder-like substance" come from Arroyo's clothing. This is believed to be the first time Arroyo was hit or injured during his attack on the courthouse.

Wilson was forced to take cover behind Arroyo's truck in a prone position and exchanged fire with Arroyo. As Arroyo began to approach Wilson's position, he stood up from behind cover and fired again hitting Arroyo. Unknown to Wilson, Arroyo was wearing a bulletproof vest rendering Wilson's shots largely ineffective. Arroyo eventually fired a shot that struck Wilson who faltered and fell from the view of witnesses face down behind Arroyo's truck. Arroyo then fired three more shots at Wilson killing him.

[Bill MO]

In regard to oakchas's post; Yes I am old and taking a 100 yd shot is out so I need to close the distance, at my old and health that will be a while. He is already inside and has killed his people came back outside and killed himself before I even get close to the IHOP.

I can live with that "I TRIED" this is just me, but doing nothing I'm not so sure I could live with after it was all over. The BBG guy did what I thought at the time to be the best thing to do, I will not condemn him for his chose. But his making the chose has given me a chance to think about the what if of me being there. If I had been him and made that decision I'm not sure I could and would live with it. I can see it causing much trouble in my life and for my wife's life. If it was to ruin a good marriage and life, is it worth still being alive after walking away or better dieing trying to help and save others?

I'm not everyone master so can only make a decision for me.

[Guantes]

I think that there are a number of quandaries in such a situation.

An honest evaluation of your capabilities vs the shooter.
Your odds of effecting the outcome and/or coming out alive.
The possibility of your action causing greater carnage.
The effects on those close to you if you do not survive.
The effects of losing everything you have, on those close to you, via civil action.
To name a few.

I personally would find little comfort in "I tried.", if I had no effect on the outcome. Intent is admirable, but results are what count.

I would probably try, but I would realize from the start that any satisfactory outcome would be unlikely.