It is not a up or down vote on the idea
National reciprocity in the Senate is in a process mode. Harry Reid is for the concept, and the approach to passage is to attach it to a bill that must pass. Chuckie Schumer led the fight back in 2009 to stop the Thune Amendment then. He stopped the amendment to an existing bill by getting 42 votes for cloture. If he had come up two votes short, there would have been 60 votes to stop debate, and then a vote on attaching the amendment. Two of the cretins that went Chuckie's way are gone. Arlen Spector got defeated by Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Robert (Pave Over West Virginia) Byrd died, and has been replaced by Joe Manchin, who would be expected to vote for cloture.
The proximity of the 2012 election is a factor, and given BOH's unwillingness to expend direct political capital to veto such a bill - the CCW in National Parks for example - to me means we have a good chance.