Extra magazine? - Page 7

Extra magazine?

This is a discussion on Extra magazine? within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; As for the comments about a gunfight being predictable, who the h**l are you kidding other than yourself? No matter how much you train or ...

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  1. #91
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    As for the comments about a gunfight being predictable, who the h**l are you kidding other than yourself? No matter how much you train or practice for the one time you will have a deadly force encounter when it happens it won't be like anything you imagined.
    Having been through more than one deadly force encounter, some have been a bit unusual, others have been very close to some situations that I had imagined.
    "You have the rest of your life to solve your problem, how well you do it may very well determine how long it lasts."
    A nice quote from Clint, who will probably tell you that he developed much of his training regime around predicting what would happen in a gunfight and determining what skills were needed to win. That is why, for example, so much of Urban Carbine is focused on close-range rifle work. Why? Because you can predict, with a fairly high degree of certainty, that if you are using your carbine in an urban area a high percentage of shots will be at close range and not out at 300 meters.


  2. #92
    Senior Member Array jdsumner's Avatar
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    David,
    Sorry to take so long to get back on, but thank you for the clarification. Please tell me if I am correct then in my assumption: you are saying that it is the bahavior of attackers/potential attackers in a given situation or set of circumstances, based on outcomes of other attackers in similar circumstances, that you are using as a predictor. Then, based on situational awareness (ability to see what is happening around you) and training, you can predict how you will handle this situation IF it escelates to a gf?

    Thanks again, David. our talks are always thought provoking.

    Dan

  3. #93
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    Please tell me if I am correct then in my assumption
    Pretty close. First, you use the previous attack to predict behavior in future attacks, and this allows you to decide how best to train and prepare for a fight, or avoid it in the first place. Second, once the incident begins, understanding of the dynamics allow you to predict what actions on your part would be likely to escalate or de-escalate the situation. Think of it this way--how do you decide which route to take to work in the morning? You determine that route by predicting what will happen, and that prediction is based on years of study on how to get there. Thus, you use previous incidents (trips) to predict what you should do. Sometimes the prediction is wrong---maybe there is an accident that has blocked the roadway. You now use the situation at hand to predict what you should do---do you sit it out in traffic, try to find an alternate route, maybe get off the road and just wait it out at a diner until the traffic gets moving again. Whatever you do, there is no guarantee you will be right, but by studying the past you are more likely to accurately predict what is the best thing to do.

  4. #94
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    David,

    If we could predict gunfights then we would only have to carry our guns on the day(s) we would be in a gunfight. If we could predict gunfights, we could just stay home that day. If we could predict gunfights we could use the same method to predict crime and the police could be right there to prevent it.

    So whenís the next hurricane going to strike according to previous hurricanes, what force will it be and what path is it going to take?

    Math is fine and Iím an engineer and math and statistics is important to me for analysis. But statistics cannot predict gun fights. Statistics can show the chances that something is likely to occur, but thatís about it.

    If statistics could predict gunfights the way you claim, the same methods could be applied to the stock market and we could be millionaires.

    You might want to look at this thread:
    http://glocktalk.com/showthread.php?...highlight=SOP9

    I believe it will be enlightening and cover some gunfights beyond your experience.

  5. #95
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    If we could predict gunfights then we would only have to carry our guns on the day(s) we would be in a gunfight.
    Nonsense. With any predictive model there is room for error. But you are still making predictions, and fairly accurate ones. In fact, I would bet that most days you are accurately predicting that you will not get into a gunfight. Usually you will be right.
    If we could predict gunfights we could use the same method to predict crime and the police could be right there to prevent it.
    Perhaps you are not aware of it, but police DO USE predictive models to predict crime (as well as investigate crime) and they also use predictive models to determine where to assign officers.
    So whenís the next hurricane going to strike according to previous hurricanes, what force will it be and what path is it going to take?
    When the season gets a little closer you will find they are making predictions on how many hurricanes there will be, and when each tropical depression starts to form they will begin looking at it and using past data to predict if it will become a hurricane, what force it will become, and where it will hit. Studying the past I can make a fairly accurate predictions about hurricanes right now--during 2005, no hurricane will seriously threaten the state of Kansas. Just because you cannot predict everything does not mean you cannot predict anything. That is the fallacy of your argument.
    But statistics cannot predict gun fights. Statistics can show the chances that something is likely to occur, but thatís about it.
    That is what a prediction is, the chance that something will (or will not) occur.
    I believe it will be enlightening and cover some gunfights beyond your experience.
    Thanks for the link, but Iíve been using the SOP9 data as part of my research since 1989, so Iím quite familiar with it.

  6. #96
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    David,

    Are you referring to the SOP9 that indicated that officers who fired 2-3 shots in a gunfight died in the gunfight?

    Is it the same study that included officer suicides and accidental shooting deaths in the numbers that indicated officers only fired 2-3 shots and did I mention this study is about officers that died in gunfights?

    Is that the study you are basing your claims on?

    Do you realize that statistics only gives us the likelyhood of an event occuring or occuring a certain way? One of the main tenets of statistics is the bell curve. The bell curves clearly shows a statistical mean, which is what I believe you are referring to, but it also shows that events do occur on both sides of the statistical mean.

    We can't claim the statistical mean is the only event(s) that will happen; the bell curve, the heart and soul of statistical analysis, also shows the probablity that other events might occur. What if "our" gunfight doesn't fall within one standard deviation of the statistical mean?

    Do you really believe that every gunfight will end in 2 -3 shots because the SOP9 study of some 30 years ago revealed that police officers that died in gun fights only fired 2 - 3 shots? AND don't forget those numbers include officer suicides and accidental shooting deaths which would certainly lower the average.

    Even if 2 or 3 shots is the "average", which it isn't, but if it were, do we really want people believing that if they can fire 2 - 3 shots in a gunfight, it will be over and they will survive? Do you think it might also be important to emphsize that ALL the officers in SOP9 study that shot 2 -3 shots, died?

    Later studies and analysis, indicate more like 6 - 8 shots are fired in LEO gunfights. I'm not sure anyone even knows what the average is for civilians.

  7. #97
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    Are you referring to the SOP9 that indicated that officers who fired 2-3 shots in a gunfight died in the gunfight?
    There is only one SOP 9 regarding this issue, the NYPD Firearms Discharge Assault Report. And it does not indicate ďthat officers who fired 2-3 shots in a gunfight died in the gunfightĒ. Please note that the term "gunfight" is somewhat vague in this discussion. For strict SOP9 considerations, a gunfight has to involve shots fired by both officer and perpetrator. IMO, a gunfight can include shots to defend against a perpetrator attacking with a knife, club, etc.
    Is it the same study that included officer suicides and accidental shooting deaths in the numbers that indicated officers only fired 2-3 shots and did I mention this study is about officers that died in gunfights?
    This really is an example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. First, the SOP 9 is NOT about officers that died in gunfights, it covers all firearms discharges by NYPD outside of training. Second, the study also breaks the shootings down by category. Suicides, accidental discharge, shooting an animal, self defense, etc. are all categorized independently.
    Is that the study you are basing your claims on?
    It is one of many that I have looked at, but it is not the sole source of my findings.
    We can't claim the statistical mean is the only event(s) that will happen; the bell curve, the heart and soul of statistical analysis, also shows the probablity that other events might occur. What if "our" gunfight doesn't fall within one standard deviation of the statistical mean?
    Then it falls outside the norm. Nothing I have said is in any way contradictory to that. NO PLACE have I said you will make any prediction with 100% certainly. That does not mean you canít make some predictions with a high degree of probability.
    Do you really believe that every gunfight will end in 2 -3 shots because the SOP9 study of some 30 years ago revealed that police officers that died in gun fights only fired 2 - 3 shots? AND don't forget those numbers include officer suicides and accidental shooting deaths which would certainly lower the average.
    Again, no, I have never said that, so for you to keep bringing it up is somewhat dishonest, IMO. And you also keep distorting the SOP9. The SOP9 is still going on today, providing us with new information, and it is easy to separate non-gunfight numbers from gunfights. For example, the average number of shots fired by the officer in gunfights in 1991 (that is the copy that was handy for me to grab) is 3.7, while the average number from bad guys is 3.2. Please note that in this year the numbers were a little high, because one incident involved 45 shots by the officers during a barricaded suspect event.
    Even if 2 or 3 shots is the "average", which it isn't, but if it were, do we really want people believing that if they can fire 2 - 3 shots in a gunfight, it will be over and they will survive?
    Again, NOBODY has said anything close to that, and for you to continually misrepresent it is not conducive to honest discussion. Either you fail to understand how predictive statistics work, or you are intentionally distorting what is said. Either way, it is wrong.
    Later studies and analysis, indicate more like 6 - 8 shots are fired in LEO gunfights.
    Perhaps you can direct us to one of these studies? IFAIK, the only numbers that get that high are (1) bunch shooting numbers, or (2) composite numbers of all shots by all participants (BG and GG numbers combined).
    I'm not sure anyone even knows what the average is for civilians.
    An executive summary for the NRA which looked at 482 civilian DGU reports between 1997 and 2001 showed that the average and median number of shots fired by the defender was 2.
    Last edited by David Armstrong; February 4th, 2005 at 02:12 PM.

  8. #98
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    Yep, in haste, I combined two things that shouldn't have been. It really doesn't change much though. The FBI used the SOP9 study and only considered the number of shots fired when the officer died in the gunfight.

    I agree there is some predictable features about gunfights.

    Maybe I misread you, so let me ask, exactly what does your following quotes mean?

    "...We can also predict, with great certainty, how many shots will be fired..."

    "...Gunfights are predictable, and what will happen in a gunfight can be predicted...."

    "...The only question is how accurate those predictions might be..."


    The last one kinda jumped out at me. We can predict gunfights, but we don't know what the accuracy is?????

  9. #99
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    It really doesn't change much though. The FBI used the SOP9 study and only considered the number of shots fired when the officer died in the gunfight.
    It does change things a lot, IMO. If there is no significant difference between the shots fired when the officer dies or when the officer lives, that means wwe can't use the shots fired number as a survival indicator.
    Maybe I misread you, so let me ask, exactly what does your following quotes mean?
    OK, here we go-----
    "...We can also predict, with great certainty, how many shots will be fired..."
    Seems pretty clear to me. We know that most gunfights will be resolved with a fairly small number of rounds being fired. That is actually one of the few numbers that we can be fairly precise about, as it is a data point that is collected at almost every shooting incident. The more data, the more precise the data, the greater the certainty of the prediction.
    "...Gunfights are predictable, and what will happen in a gunfight can be predicted...."
    As explained in a previous post, the dynamics of a gunfight are fairly well known. Criminal events, assaults, events like this are not random, they have patterns, and those patterns can help us make predictions.
    "...The only question is how accurate those predictions might be..."
    That is the key to the whole issue. As I've said before, no predictions can be made with 100% certainty. The amount of information we have, how we analyze that information, and how well we understand the findings (and a few other things) will determine how accurate, or how close to 100%, those predictions are. For example, I can predict that the rounds saved in a tactical reload will not make any difference in the outcome of a gunfight and be accurate nearly 100% of the time. I can say that the size or caliber of the gun used in a CCW situation will be irrelevant and be correct about 97% of the time. I can predict that a reload will not be needed in a DGU and be accurate 99+% of the time. If you operate a business, I can predict how likely it is that business will be robbed, and if it is robbed I can predict what the robber will do. How accurate I will be is based on the information I have, such as what type of business it is, where it is located, how it is built, wha the patronage patterns are, and so on. The more I know the more accurate my prediction will be, the less I know the less accurate the prediction will be.
    Did that clarify, or did it just make things more confusing??

  10. #100
    Member Array Hotbrass's Avatar
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    My P14 holds 15 rounds. If I can`t do it with 15 then it won`t happen.
    Keep your powder dry

  11. #101
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    You know David, I don't believe I need to say more; your last post is pretty revealing.

  12. #102
    Senior Member Array TheGreatGonzo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hotbrass
    My P14 holds 15 rounds. If I can`t do it with 15 then it won`t happen.
    What happens if, after only two of your rounds have been fired, you have a magazine related failure with the one in the pistol? What do you replace it with? I don't carry spare mags for capacity/firepower reasons (at least that is not my primary reason). I carry them because the most likely part of your semi-auto to fail is the magazine.
    Gonzo
    "Skin that smokewagon!".

  13. #103
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    This is a reply from John Farnam to somebody named Tom:

    Dear Tom

    Here is the quip I put out on the subject of NYPD shooting statistics.

    John Farnam


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    20 December 20000

    Enough ammunition?

    SOP-9, as it is called, is NYPD's ongoing statistical study of lethal-force incidents in which MOSs (Members of Service) are involved. It dates from the 1860s to the present and is a credible source of information, one of the few available.

    For years, we were all told SOP-9 established the "average" number of rounds fired by an MOS during a lethal encounter was two to three. We later learned that figure was incorrect and was actually the result of sloppy statistical analysis. Naive statisticians simply took the total of all rounds fired outside of the firing range and divided it by the total number of shooting "incidents." Unhappily, "incidents" included accidents and suicides!

    A more careful analysis of the data (which included only intentional shootings) revealed the actual figure to be very close to six rounds. What that said to us all was that officers, when threatened with lethal violence, were firing every round they had in their six-shot revolvers. After six shots, there was a mandatory pause for a conventional reload or a "NY reload," which consisted of producing a second revolver! After the reload, additional shooting was rarely necessary.

    That was prior to 1994. In 1994 autoloading pistols were introduced to the NYPD system.

    When autoloaders (mostly Glocks, with an occasional S&W and Beretta) came into the NYPD system, we all expected that figure (six) to go up into the teens, fully expecting officers to continue to fire every round they have. The latest data has shown our expectations to be incorrect!

    The new "average" number of rounds fired is eight. Subsequent data may alter that number, but that is what we have now. What jumps out at me is that, after eight rounds are fired, the parties separate or accommodate to the point where additional shooting is not necessary, at least in the short term, even though the officer is fully capable of firing more rounds. NYPD shooting accuracy has improved steadily, but the average hit percentage is still below twenty, so, out of eight rounds fired, only one or two are likely to impact anywhere on the suspect. In most cases, hit or not, the suspect disengages and runs away.

    If you're wondering if there is a point lurking in all this:

    If you have enough rounds in your magazine to get you through the initial exchange and still have some rounds left, you can then reload at your leisure. If you go to slide lock prior to the fight ending, then you'll have to reload and resume firing on an emergency basis. We teach students to reload on an emergency basis in any event, but having enough rounds to get you through the fight without the necessity of a reload bringing about an inconvenient interruption would appear to provide a genuine advantage.

    Debates about calibers, accuracy, and ammunition aside, a fifteen-shooter or even an eleven-shooter would appear to be a better choice than a seven or eight-shooter, at least in New York City!

    /John

  14. #104
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    And another reference to the SOP9

    NYPD SOP 9

    2000

    FIREARMS DISCHARGE REPORT

    DEFENSE OF SELF/OTHERS

    Any incident whereby the member of the service fired his/her weapon to defend him/herself or another against a perpetrator.

    Gunfights

    Gunfight defines any incident during which both the perpetrator and the member of the service fired their weapons at each other.

    During 2000 there were 11 incidents where MOS and perpetrators exchanged gunfire, compared to 20 in 1999, a decrease of 45%.



    MOS Statistics: MOS Assignment:

    Number MOS who fired: 27 RMP 15

    Number of shots fired: 185 Foot Patrol 0

    Number of hits: 16 Anti-Crime 5

    Hit Potential: 9% Buy&Bust 0

    Shots fired per incident: 16.8 Executing Search Warrant 0

    Shots per MOS 6.9 Street Crime 0

    Off Duty 2

    Number MOS On duty: 25 Conditions 2

    Number MOS Off duty: 2 Investigator 1

    Tracer 2

  15. #105
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    Wife and I will now be carrying two spare mags each. Her Milt Sparks OWB dual mag pouch should be here in a while along with her holster (VM2)

    ~A
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    Henry Ward Beecher

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