Extra magazine? - Page 8

Extra magazine?

This is a discussion on Extra magazine? within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; For years, we were all told SOP-9 established the "average" number of rounds fired by an MOS during a lethal encounter was two to three. ...

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  1. #106
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    For years, we were all told SOP-9 established the "average" number of rounds fired by an MOS during a lethal encounter was two to three. We later learned that figure was incorrect and was actually the result of sloppy statistical analysis. Naive statisticians simply took the total of all rounds fired outside of the firing range and divided it by the total number of shooting "incidents." Unhappily, "incidents" included accidents and suicides!
    Sigh. With all do respect to John, as mentioned earlier that is simply incorrect or a misunderstanding of how SOP 9 works. Yes, there is a total average, but there are also averages that cover only those areas of importance to the fighting issue. There are numbers involving just gunfights, and there are numbers for defensive shootings, and so on. And when looking at numbers you need to do more than just one year if you want to get a good look, as the numbers for any single year are fairly low, thus it is easy to get a lot of variation.


  2. #107
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    You know David, I don't believe I need to say more; your last post is pretty revealing.
    Shouldn't be anything new there to reveal. I've always been pretty straightforward in pointing out that there is research available about self defense and DGU that will allow a person to make a rational and logical choice based on facts and reality, so basing your training, equipment selection, tactics, etc. on "what if" or the latest adventure movie of the week probably doesn't make a lot of sense.

  3. #108
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    David,

    You asked for references and I gave you Ernst Langdon and John Farnum, two reputable sources. Each time I give a reference you try to discredit them.

    Figuring you would do that again, I included the NYPD SOP 9 data for the year 2000 so the board memebers could see for themselves. No where do I see any mention of 2 - 3 shots, but I do see a bunch of references to 6 - 17 shots. And now you try to explain the obvious away.

    What I didn't include is the numbers for per cent hits at various ranges. The last year I have found so far, was SOP-9 for 1992 and in that year, which was down form 1990, under 3 yards the percentage of hits was 28%. To get a percentage of 28% officers would have to fire an average of 3.57 shots. Beyond 3 yards the average hit percentage dropped to about 10% which means one hit out of ten shots or stated the other way an average officer fired ten shots to get one hit!

    At very best, under three yards, the officers would have to fire 3.5 shots, and that's well above a 2 - 3 shot average you claim. But at all ranges, the average shots would be more like 5 - 6 shots.

    Notice how nicely the percent hits data agrees with the number of shots fired as claimed by Jon Farnum, Ernst Langdon, and the NYPD SOP-9 2000 report.
    Last edited by Tangle; February 7th, 2005 at 02:16 PM.

  4. #109
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    You asked for references and I gave you Ernst Langdon and John Farnum, two reputable sources. Each time I give a reference you try to discredit them.
    No. I don't discredit them. I discredit the information. The "source" you said Langdon was using has never been offered. You originally tried to tie it into an FBI report, but when it was pointed out that the FBI report could not be used that way we heard nothing else. As for John, again while I like John and respect him, he is simply incorrect, and a look at the data shows it.
    Figuring you would do that again, I included the NYPD SOP 9 data for the year 2000 so the board memebers could see for themselves. No where do I see any mention of 2 - 3 shots, but I do see a bunch of references to 6 - 17 shots. And now you try to explain the obvious away.
    Yes, it is obvious that when you cherry pick one particular year that you can do just about anything you want. Give me free choice of time frames and I can prove the Chevy is the best selling pickup, Ford is the best selling pickup, and Dodge is also the best selling pickup. However, when you look at the big picture it clears things up some. Let's take your 2000 data. Let's note first that it include ONLY 11 incidents, and ONLY 27 officers. Not much of a data base, and one that is easy to impact. In fact, when conducting statistical analysis a pretty standard rule is that numbers of less than 30 are so unreliable that you don't use them. You even provide a good example of that. In your quote from John it says, "NYPD shooting accuracy has improved steadily,..." , yet in the data you give we see a hit rate of 9%. Now, is the hit rate for NYPD 9% (a decline, BTW) or is it improving??
    Further, as I keep pointing out, the category of "GUNFIGHTS" for SOP 9 is very restrictive, and does not include a significant number of events where deadly force is legitimately used, such as when attacked by a knife or club, or when the BG has a gun but does not get the chance to fire it. When you include that category (Defense of Self/Others) the numbers change significantly. So it is pretty simple---you can make claims based on 11 incidents that exclude a large number of legitimate shootings, or you can make claims based on thousands of incidents that include all legitimate shootings. I know which one I trust.
    Last edited by David Armstrong; February 8th, 2005 at 03:55 PM.

  5. #110
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    I don't know what Ernst Langdon's source was, but since he uses the info in his classes, I'm sure he is competent enough to use valid data.

    John is simply incorrect? It seems like anyone who disagrees with you is incorrect.

    I didn't do any cherry picking; I used data that was available. That data was from three different years over a ten year period and they all indicated the very same thing with slight variations.

    I think everyone would agree at this point David: you've talked about me not giving sources, what about you? Where's you're data that is so unique that it can prove everybody else's data wrong. Why don't you post it or give us some references so we can see for ourselves?

    And another thing, if gunfights are so predictable as you claim, how come there is such a huge deviation from the 2 - 3 shots you claim and in the three years I found? If gunfights are predictable, these years should look very much like other years shouldn't they?
    Last edited by Tangle; February 8th, 2005 at 07:12 PM.

  6. #111
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    I didn't do any cherry picking; I used data that was available. That data was from three different years over a ten year period and they all indicated the very same thing with slight variations.
    For someone who didn't even know what SOP9 was a few posts back, you are suddenly trying to claim a lot of expertise in what it does and what it says. Let's be real direct here. HAVE YOU EVER LOOKED AT AN ORIGINAL SOP 9 DOCUMENT?? That is the problem with so much of this stuff, somebody repeats something that htey heard somebody else talking about what somebody else said. I've been working with SOP 9 since 1989, as I said. You'll excuse me if I happen to think I'm fairly familiar with what it says.
    I think everyone would agree at this point David: you've talked about me not giving sources, what about you?
    I beleive I've mentioned SOP9 and the NRA study. You can do a search and get thousands of sources. I recommend you read Kleck (the original), Mauser, Lott, Rossi, NIJ and BJS data, and others that all discuss gun use, criminal activities, and so on. Also might want to try getting a copy of a Ph.D. dissertation by Greg Morrison.
    Where's you're data that is so unique that it can prove everybody else's data wrong.
    It doesn't prove anybody else's data is wrong, the problem is that many are mis-interpreting the data. Just like you did above, you can't just use the "gunfight" category of SOP 9 because it doesn't include some acts (being attacked by a person with a knife, for instance) that are legitimate DGU incidents. Just like you should not include suicide in the numbers, you also should not exclude legitimate shootings. Also you have to adjust for a phenomenon known as "bunch shooting" (reference Thomas Aveni's work) as it has a big impact that can screw up the data. And there is a lot of data out there from sources other than SOP 9 that need to be considered.
    And another thing, if gunfights are so predictable as you claim, how come there is such a huge deviation from the 2 - 3 shots you claim and in the three years I found?
    If you will look at the actual SOP9 information and use it correctly, you won't find a huge deviation. It is nonsense like this that caused NYPD to quit making the SOP9 readily available, they got so tired of people incorrectly using it to make claims that were not accurate.
    If gunfights are predictable, these years should look very much like other years shouldn't they?
    Not necessarily. As I pointed out above, sometime when your data base is very small (11 incidents) you are going to have results that swing wildly, or when you have large-scale infrequent events. For example if you take the World Trade Center attacks where so many fierefighters were killed, would you consider that year as a good indicator of how many firefightes die in the line of duty each year? No, you have to control for that in the analysis. But let me turn the question around--if you are claiming that gunfights are totally unpredictable, how do you know what you should do to prepare and equip yourself for them? How do police departments all over the country devise job-related firearms training for their officers?

  7. #112
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    David,
    Show us your data! Show us something that you base your claims on. You say it's the NRA and SOP-9, but when I show data from the SOP-9, you say it's wrong or I'm picking years. I didn't; I presented years I found.

    You ask if I have ever seen an original SOP-9 document - have you? If you have why don't you share them with us? Why don't you post something to support your claims? Why, I might look at your data and accept it. But it's hard to accept something I can't see.

    You say I misuse the data, why don't you show us the data and how to analyze it?

    I'm asking you to show us the data that you claim is accurate or your method(s) of analysis that looks so differently than others.

    Show us the data of knife and club attacks to support your claims.

    If you can't show any data or sources for your claims, and you continue unfounded critiques of data presented, it could give the impression that you are being evasive because you don't have any support to show us.

    Hey, it may very well be that the whole SOP-9 is an aberation compared to the rest of the nation. Show us some data, show us something.

  8. #113
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    Guys,

    You have been very patient with what turned into a futile and perhaps foolish debate. For myself, I should have realized it wasn't going anywhere and should have disengaged before now. So I shall do that now - disengage that is. See you in other threads.

  9. #114
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    [quote] Show us your data! Show us something that you base your claims on.[\quote]
    I have told you. I don’t make claims. I make statements of fact based years of research. I have told you some of the sources for that research. If you are unwilling or unable to take the time to look something up yourself, I feel no obligation to do it for you.
    You say it's the NRA and SOP-9, but when I show data from the SOP-9, you say it's wrong or I'm picking years. I didn't; I presented years I found.
    Again, I don’t say the data is wrong, I say you are presenting it wrong for the purpose of this discussion. Whether you are doing that simply because you don’t know any better or you are doing it for some personal agenda I don’t know. When you start out your discussion with an incorrect statement of what the SOP9 is and does, I question if you have any idea what you are talking about. When you continue to argue a point that is patently incorrect (failure to include any legitimate shootings other than exchanges of gunfire) I begin to question even more.
    You ask if I have ever seen an original SOP-9 document - have you? If you have why don't you share them with us? Why don't you post something to support your claims?
    I will take that response to indicate that no, you have not ever seen an original SOP9 report. As for sharing them with you, I doubt that the forum moderator would like for me to post a 54 page document here, or even a 17 page document for that matter. I have posted the findings of various studies (not just SOP9). If you want to go through pages of data, go find it. I’m not going to waste my time by copying it here.
    You say I misuse the data, why don't you show us the data and how to analyze it?
    Let’s start by showing where you have incorrectly used the data. First, SOP9 IS NOT a document that “indicated that officers who fired 2-3 shots in a gunfight died in the gunfight”, as you initially claimed. Nor, as you initially claimed, that “this study is about officers that died in gunfights”. SOP 9 DOES NOT include suicides and accidental shootings in the figuring the average of shots fired in gunfights or defensive use, as you indicated. SOP 9 IS NOT “some study of 30 years ago” as you initially claimed.
    Now, to correctly analyze the data, you need to decide what it is you are going to look at. For example, are you going to look only at those incidents where the BG fired a gun at the officer, as you have been doing? Or do you want to look at all incidents where the officer legitimately used his gun in defense? Are you going to take an average, or do you want to look at the median number of shots fired (a better method, IMO). Do you control for what are called “bunch shootings” or not, keeping in mind that the bunch shooting phenomenon appears to increase the overall shots fired by almost 50%? Will you include incidents where long guns were used by the officer or just those with the handgun? What about situations where a sniper shoots the BG from a distance? Will you use individual years for analysis or will you look at trends over time?
    Now, in a very short period of time we have identified at least 4 incorrect statements you made regarding SOP9, 1 major analysis issue, and 5 control issues. That is just a start. Hopefully you will see why “show us the data and how to analyze it” is a somewhat impractical request in a forum like this. Of course, we haven’t even got started on the question of how applicable this data is to non-LE shootings. Personally, I don’t find it particularly relevant for that, which is why you look at lots of other sources.
    Show us the data of knife and club attacks to support your claims.
    Now you are just being plain silly, or just trying to create problems, one or the other. BY YOUR OWN POST, a gunfight “defines any incident during which both the perpetrator and the member of the service fired their weapons at each other”, and “Any incident whereby the member of the service fired his/her weapon to defend him/herself or another against a perpetrator” is in a different category, that of defense of self or others. Surely you are not going to try to claim that nobody gets attacked with knives and clubs?
    If you can't show any data or sources for your claims, and you continue unfounded critiques of data presented, it could give the impression that you are being evasive because you don't have any support to show us.
    That is a rather silly concept itself. Do you mean to say that unless I post the entire Encyclopedia Britannica here when I mention something I read in it that I am being evasive??? Again, I’ve given you several sources that you can look at. If you are too lazy to research them yourself don’t expect me to do it for you.

  10. #115
    Distinguished Member Array David Armstrong's Avatar
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    You have been very patient with what turned into a futile and perhaps foolish debate.
    The search for accuracy and factual truth, while often futile, is never foolish. But I agree the thread has bogged down and is not progressing as I had hoped, So I shall join you in disengaging, and thank you for your input.

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