Don't bet your life on averages

This is a discussion on Don't bet your life on averages within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; We've all seen discussions on the 'net and even on this board about the average number of rounds fired in a self defense situation. Some ...

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Thread: Don't bet your life on averages

  1. #1
    Senior Member Array MilitaryArms's Avatar
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    Don't bet your life on averages

    We've all seen discussions on the 'net and even on this board about the average number of rounds fired in a self defense situation. Some use these averages to justify their choice of carry weapons or how many spare rounds they carry on them.

    A chilling story out of Skokie Illinois should be a lesson to us all. I talk about it and the consequences in this article: Don?t bet your life on averages | The Bang Switch
    Badey, Kennydale, dV8r and 4 others like this.
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    Articles like this one serve to confirm that which have long believed, and will continue to practice. The lowest capacity edc I run is an M&P 9c, and even with that, I have two extra 17-round mags on board.
    StormRhydr likes this.
    "Who are the ones that we kept in charge? Killers, thieves, and lawyers"

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    VIP Member Array varob's Avatar
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    According to NY state, 7 is the magic number.
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    Don't believe what you hear and only half of what you see!
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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Averages are just that. But on the day crime comes to visit, it's nearly 100% guaranteed to be different than average. And if on the "bad" side of average, it's highly probable that shorting oneself on arms/skills can turn out badly. No two ways about it.

    Nobody in a fight ever complained about having sufficient ammo, sufficient gun, sufficient skills for that encounter.

    Thanks for the reminder, MA.
    Your best weapon is your brain. Don't leave home without it.
    Thoughts: Justifiable self defense (A.O.J.).
    Explain: How does disarming victims reduce the number of victims?
    Reason over Force: The Gun is Civilization (Marko Kloos).
    NRA, GOA, OFF, ACLDN.

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    VIP Member Array Easy8's Avatar
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    I understand the idea but the instances that always come up to defend carrying lots of ammo are Leos who are making traffic stops or called to a robbery or involved in a chase. Most likely I will never be in those situations. The place I feel I would need more ammo would be a home invasion which is why I keep a shotgun an CZ as far as My carry goes I carry snubs with speed strips.
    dangerranger and sebring like this.

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    VIP Member Array Stevew's Avatar
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    While I hate to admit it I am more likely than not to carry a low capacity firearm. When going to a large city I always go with high capacity. I would bet that if research was conducted most defensive shootings happen close to home. Most of us like to think of ourself as above average but assume our "gunfight" will be average.
    Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around laws. Plato

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    VIP Member Array Kennydale's Avatar
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    That is one reason i would love to have an FNH FN-X45 15+1 of .45ACp Plus two Spare magazine of 15 rounds... YEOWZER. Right now I have a Ruger SR40C that I carry everyday. 9+1 in the carry magazine & 15 in the spare. Would that be enough fire power for me if i ever really needed it ??? I DON'T KNOW, but it's what I carry.

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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy8 View Post
    I understand the idea but the instances that always come up to defend carrying lots of ammo are Leos who are making traffic stops or called to a robbery or involved in a chase. Most likely I will never be in those situations. The place I feel I would need more ammo would be a home invasion which is why I keep a shotgun an CZ as far as My carry goes I carry snubs with speed strips.
    Well, crimes of all sorts hit folks at home and away. More and more, we're hearing of multiple-BG home invasions, and multiple-BG street violence against people. Sure, in most cases, an armed citizen who violently rises up to halt such attacks tend to succeed after a few rounds. Generally. But now and then we hear of situations where people simply were overwhelmed either with too little firepower (ie, bringing a knife to a gunfight), lack of rounds, or lack of ability to get to an effective weapon sufficiently quickly to stop the violence.

    Which is why we train, why we arm ourselves with a range of weaponry, ensure things are accessible quickly and even if injured (ie, "strong" arm not functioning). And, with respect to having sufficient firepower/ammo to matter. Won't always be needed, sure. But you never know. And not considering what could easily happen but for the luck of the draw is playing with the odds. All it takes is for the "wrong" situation to occur ... and we'll never know it's coming until it's too late.
    Aceoky likes this.
    Your best weapon is your brain. Don't leave home without it.
    Thoughts: Justifiable self defense (A.O.J.).
    Explain: How does disarming victims reduce the number of victims?
    Reason over Force: The Gun is Civilization (Marko Kloos).
    NRA, GOA, OFF, ACLDN.

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    VIP Member Array Kennydale's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by varob View Post
    According to NY state, 7 is the magic number.
    It's time the great people of the Empire State GROW A PAIR and throw the Liberals out.
    tcox4freedom likes this.

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    VIP Member Array Easy8's Avatar
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    Has anybody shot the CZ Duty09 dont want to hijack the thread but speaking of capacity it holds 19+1 carry one extra mag an your carrying 39 rounds kind of amazing

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    Senior Member Array dV8r's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by varob View Post
    According to NY state, 7 is the magic number...
    ...but only for law abiding citizens.

    Hope you don't mind me finishing your statement for you. :)
    LEARN something today so you can TEACH something tomorrow.
    Dominus Vobiscum <))>(
    Where is the wisdom that we have lost in knowledge?" T.S. Elliot

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    VIP Member Array Harryball's Avatar
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    Good article MAC..

    I am in full agreement regarding averages. Some what to play the averages and that is their choice, however for me its not worth it...
    StormRhydr likes this.
    Don"t let stupid be your skill set....

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    VIP Member Array 9MMare's Avatar
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    More is better, IMO, because of all the Ayoob Files, and other descriptions and videos of gunfights/robberies that I've seen....even accurate, mortal shots *very often* do not instantly STOP an attack. Including .45.

    Not to mention the same info and videos available where even cops are in gunfights and dont even hit. Miss completely. Or some where shooter misses at point blank range.

    Gunfights are ugly unpredictable things....they will not go down as you have imagined a million times.

    That is what drives my decisions, at home and cc. However with a spare mag or 2 (as now), I am headed towards a 10 round carry gun.
    Aceoky likes this.
    Fortune favors the bold.

    Freedom doesn't mean safe, it means free.

    The thing about "defense" is that it has practically nothing to do with guns. (As passed on by CCW9MM)

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    VIP Member Array suntzu's Avatar
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    Numbers and stats. Always fun to play with. First of all a good article. One should carry what they want and base it off of capability, experience, comfort level, and education from reading various articles on the subject.

    The moral to this story is two fold. First, don’t base your self defense strategy on minimum statistical data. Plan for the worst and hope for the best, your life may depend on it.
    I do a risk assesment which factors in the worst along with what is likely and probable. I base my decision on my risk assesment. If I planned for the worst I would walk out the door with my Sig, a BUG, 2 or more extra mags, a knife, pepper spray, other devices if legal, a cellphone, first aid kit, balisitc vest if legal, and more. For an EDC I do not think you have to prepare for the worst. That is because the worst can be unimaginable. I don't think it is practical for most to carry what they need for the worst possible situation.
    Then I heard the voice of the Lord saying, “Whom shall I send? And who will go for us?”
    And I said, “Here am I. Send me!”

    Isaiah 6:8

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    Distinguished Member Array GunGeezer's Avatar
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    I'm definitely a fan of the highest rnd. count I can manage, and there's the rub. An FNH FX-45 would be my first choice for every situation except concealed carry. I have yet to be able to adequately hide anything larger or with more capacity than a Glock 26 and even that does not conceal really well. Everything larger and heavier than my S&W 342 or Kel-Tec P3AT just screams gun in pocket carry. Carry systems such as Smart Carry are too difficult to access with my 70 yr. old, Ostio-arthritic hands and pot-bellied body. I've got drawers and boxes full of holsters that don't quite get it. If I could manage it, small of the back would probably be my choice for a larger or heavier gun but I'd need Mrs. geezer to reach it for me.

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