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What's the reason for Chicago's decline in violent crime for 2014?

4K views 60 replies 39 participants last post by  Smitty901 
#1 ·
#6 ·
It would not look like the carry laws were the cause of the decrease nor did they cause the weekend spike. They will at some point become the scape goat as they allow Chicago's elected and appointed officials to blame their failure to address the problem on a target that they consider acceptable.
 
#8 ·
Just kidding! Several things can impact crime stats, some of which can even be the criteria and method of the person compiling them. From an LE standpoint it could be everything from the weather, patrol tactics, or even cooperative efforts/peace between organized gangs. Without an in depth look at the area it is kind of hard to determine the root cause.
 
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#31 ·
Here is my humble opinion or actually it's fact places that have laws more favorable for people having guns tend to have lower crime rates then those that have laws that oppose citizens having guns,as far as Chicago goes who knows.
 
#10 ·
I think some of the posters above are correct. It's too early to say if the new carry law had anything to do with it. I don't think it did because people were just getting the CCL's about 30 days ago. Now what I do think will be interesting is if there will be any data available (that the police and mayor aren't manipulating) next year this time. Then we may be able to tell if the new laws had any affect.
 
#12 ·
Yep! Bama's right.....since the compulation of data falls within their realm it would be easily possible to skew the results.
 
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#21 ·
Every time McCarthy opens his fat stupid mouth he blames the gun laws on his gang violence problem in Chicago. How much more restrictive can gun laws get in the USA than the ones he has in his City??

News flash Police Superintendent: You have an uncontrolled gang problem in Chicago and guns are just incidental to it!!! Deal with the real problem.
 
#18 ·
Chicago = Corrupt = Lies, Fakery, Prevarication and the Like plus Graft.

Why are Chicago Aldermen predominantly all millionaires, when they started out life without two nickels to rub together?

Correlation does not equal cause and effect.

Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase in science and statistics that emphasizes that a correlation between two variables does not necessarily imply that one causes the other. Many statistical tests calculate correlation between variables.
From the article:

Now, it’s entirely too soon to conclude that the concealed carry law is partly responsible for Chicago’s across-the-board drop in the crime. However, it is not unreasonable to conclude the drop in crime may undercut gun control advocates’ argument that more guns equal more crime.

It should also be noted that the first concealed carry permits were issued in late February, so the decrease in crime can’t yet be attributed to more people carrying guns.

The more telling statistics will be revealed as 2014 marches on. Still, as always, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation.
 
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#22 ·
I don't remember the source, either The Truth About Guns, Guns.com or some other gun website. But I read an article in which Chicago's crime rate hasn't gone down at all, they just flubbed the numbers in some way shape or form.

Sorry I can't be more specific.
 
#26 ·
I've read some articles already crediting the new CC law in Illinois for a drop in violent crime in Chicago. Is it the new law or the brutally cold and snowy winter that kept people inside? I think it's a little too early to credit the new law!

Here?s What Happened to Crime in Chicago After Illinois Finally Passed Concealed Carry Law | TheBlaze.com
Some reports have come out that the CPD have taken lessons from environmental scientists and are altering the data that is published to make the department "look" better.
 
#28 ·
A master's degree in statistics is not necessary to understand a drop in violent crime.

Change the definition of "Violent Crime".. The "Powers that be" have been doing it for years..
 
#41 ·
The only explanation for lower crime stats in Chicago would be somebody is cooking the books. Got to make the "facts" match the narrative of the day.

Even if CCW could be attributed to a drop in Chicago's crime rate, the powers that be would never admit it.
 
#42 ·
One year doesn't a trend make unless there is a very significant reduction. If the last 5 years look like 10,000; 9,600; 10,400; 10,200; 10,900 and this year it's 9,700; even though it's more than a 1,000 homicide decrease (I dunno I'm making up numbers); looking at the previous 5 years, it's not really a reduction in crime. It's just not 'as bad as some years'. But it's not even the lowest in 5 years!

When it's consistently low and gets lower over the course of several years then we'll start to see what's going on.
 
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