This is a discussion on Civilian Combat Stats. within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; In terms of preparing for anything, you first prepare for the most likely scenario. Then you prepare for secondary scenarios in the order in which ...
In terms of preparing for anything, you first prepare for the most likely scenario. Then you prepare for secondary scenarios in the order in which they are most likely to happen. If you have unlimited resources you train for everything.
In self defense, you are by far most likely to face a nondetermined opponent. Therefore that is the first thing most people to should be prepared for. Second most likely by a least an order of magnitude is a BG who will not stop until shot. Third, and very unlikely for most civilians, is a prolonged gun fight with a BG who needs to be physically stopped by either blood loss or a shot to the nervous system, like the guy the FBI went against in Miami or one high on drugs. To aim your training at the third scenario, with a corresponding increase in the cost of training may be fun for some of us and may increase the trainer's income, but likely is not meeting the needs of the general gun owning public. BTW, I draw these conclusion, not particularly from Lovellette's article but from reading the survivor's stories on this and other forum's and from various books including those of Ayoob and Chris Bird.
And training that doesn't give a false sense of security that just because you have a gun the BG will likely run away.
If we are EXPECTING him to run and he doesn't we are behind the OODA curve because we are now having to process the "why didn't he run away?" info. If we train under the assumption that there WILL be a fight after the gun comes out then that saves time in the decision making process. Frankly if someone carries a gun with the mindset that they only have to pull it out to be victorious, they really are deluding themselves and quite frankly possibly setting themselves up to get hurt really badly or worse. We see it in dashboard cam video where the cops get beat down and then in the interview they say" I didn't think this would ever happen to me".Some folks just don't respect authority...or your gun.
There are people out there that are not afraid of your gun. Look at the FBI stats on criminals who killed cops from 2005. Most had been carrying guns since they were 13. Most had been in 3 gunfights by the time they killed the cop. Most had been in jail already. Most had taken part in multiple assaults and some even murders BEFORE they killed the cops.These are not fat lazy guys who work a sedentary job,watch football and go bowling. They are out there everyday victimizing folks.It is what they do. THAT is what I'm more concerned with running into. And before you say well, that is just a problem for cops....these guys are out there victimizing CITIZENS before they killed the cop. So it is not a "cop specific" issue.
If we train to deal with that (which honestly is not ALL that intensive training and I even cover a lot of it in my TN Handgun carry class ) then we can definitely deal with lesser problems. But if all we ever do is the least common denominator basic "this is my gun, that is the target" stuff then we might be in for a big surprise when we go for our gun and he doesn't run away......
And I'm not putting this out there to "be right" or to attract students.If they want the knowledge they will come. I could care less about winning a gun forum argument. The reason I have stuck with this particular thread this long is I honestly hate to think people are going to leave here thinking "well, I guess training really has no benefit since all those guys did OK without it. Heck, I won't even have to shoot, just pulling it out is enough, so I don't even need to practice"...... And then something terribly bad happening to them when they meet up with someone who is not a least common denominator villain......
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I'll stipulate that a better trained person has a much better chance at prevailing in the worst-case scenarios. The real equation requires cost-benefit analysis. There is a limit to the time and effort most people will spend on increasing their own safety. Realistically, this time and effort should be spent in the most effective manner.
In my case, buying a car with airbags and ABS, or reducing my daily commute would reduce my risks more than additional firearms training.
Another thing to look at is the amount of time spent training, when compared to the chances that you will need it and how much of your life it will save. If you spend 1% of your life in planning for a particular contingency, but the contingency has a 0.01% chance of reducing your life by an average of 50%--Does that make sense? Taken to extremes, you'll spend all your time planning for contingencies, and none living your life.
Most people's ofds of a situation that can only handled with advanced training are not high enough to make it worthwhile on a strictly risk mitigation basis. If the training is also recreation, or you live a particularly high-risk life, that changes the equation.
I actually agree with much of what you have to say. However, my biggest frustation as a consumer of training is that the only training that seems to be readily available is either the basic NRA and CCW/CHL classes or two plus day intermediate and advanced classes that I, like most people, don't have the time to take. I would love to find one day intermediate classes, even a series of one day classes that include FOF training available in my area. I could probably take a couple of those a year. But it is hard to find any FOF training, much less on a one day basis or any intermediate training one day at a time. Unfortunately I think the attitude that you need to train for the worst type of BG or scenario leads to this lack of readily accessible intermediate training.
So instead I read lots of books and articles, shoot once a week on paper and do regular dry fire. That is already much more than what most people do, but is not sufficient by your standards, nor is it as much as I would like. So I guess my challenge to you is: if training to deal with the worst type of assaillant is necessary, how do you and other trainers make it widely available and accessible to the general public?
You realize that almost all of their classes are two day classes. They have some one day FOF but unfortunately not very many of them and none anywhere close to my location. Thanks for the info though. I may look into taking one of their defensive pistol classes out in Tyler, Tx.