Civilian Combat Stats. - Page 5

Civilian Combat Stats.

This is a discussion on Civilian Combat Stats. within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; ddg9, Tom Givens has had 40 civies involved in gunfights after taking his class(s)? That seems incrediably high, especially considering good training teaches avoidance first. ...

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  1. #61
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    ddg9,

    Tom Givens has had 40 civies involved in gunfights after taking his class(s)? That seems incrediably high, especially considering good training teaches avoidance first.

    I may not be understanding something here, there are stats that disclose how many shots and hits civilians get in a gunfight?
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  2. #62
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tangle View Post
    Tom Givens has had 40 civies involved in gunfights after taking his class(s)? That seems incrediably high, especially considering good training teaches avoidance first.
    Avoidance isn't always possible in dangerous metro areas such as his (nor often possible at all for attacks at the home). He's also been teaching a long time.

    I may not be understanding something here, there are stats that disclose how many shots and hits civilians get in a gunfight?
    None that I know of, though BoJ might? Police have such stats, certainly, and police hit rates are all over the map.

    I invited the guy whose post I repreinted to join this board; he said he would, so maybe he'll come on the thread and be able to specify more.

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    Tangle - my last post was in response to the author's being "surprised" that most gun fights (for civilians) occured at home or at work. I wasn't arguing with anyone on the board, just stating that it should be obvious that most things happen to people where they spend most of their time (with exceptions, of course).

    Again, we don't know how many GGs are successfully using guns to protect themselves at all, much less what the ratio of successful to unsuccessful attempts are. We don't know about all the failures, because very often the GG isn't around to tell us about it. These stats are very limited in what they allow us to conclude, and I'm just not willing to conclude that little to no training is "good enough" because this article says most survivors had that level of training. I still don't think we all need to go to a dozen SWAT schools, or the "advanced land nav" course (some of you will know what that means), but everyone should have the basics. If surviving a gunfight was that easy, why do we spend so much time, effort, and money training those folks with the highest chance of being in one (cops and soldiers)?
    A man fires a rifle for many years, and he goes to war. And afterward he turns the rifle in at the armory, and he believes he's finished with the rifle. But no matter what else he might do with his hands - love a woman, build a house, change his son's diaper - his hands remember the rifle.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by OPFOR View Post
    Tangle - my last post was in response to the author's being "surprised" that most gun fights (for civilians) occured at home or at work. I wasn't arguing with anyone on the board, just stating that it should be obvious that most things happen to people where they spend most of their time (with exceptions, of course).
    For random things equally distributed, sure. But really, crimes happen most often where criminals choose to commit them. If I spend 9 hrs a day in my safe, locked down engineering company and 5 minutes a day at the stop and rob getting gas, I predict I'm more likely to be attacked at the S&R. But if I worked at a downtown jewelers, I'd expect the opposite.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgg9 View Post
    For random things equally distributed, sure. But really, crimes happen most often where criminals choose to commit them. If I spend 9 hrs a day in my safe, locked down engineering company and 5 minutes a day at the stop and rob getting gas, I predict I'm more likely to be attacked at the S&R. But if I worked at a downtown jewelers, I'd expect the opposite.
    Hence my "exceptions" comment.

    What I'd be curious to see would be a time/place breakdown; something that said you have a .00001% chance of being attacked per hour you spend at work (assuming you work in a building/environment that is open to the public), a .00002% chance of being attacked per hour spent in your home, a .00003% chance per hour of being attacked at the stop and rob, etc. (and of course, all those percentages are completely made up!)
    A man fires a rifle for many years, and he goes to war. And afterward he turns the rifle in at the armory, and he believes he's finished with the rifle. But no matter what else he might do with his hands - love a woman, build a house, change his son's diaper - his hands remember the rifle.

  6. #66
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OPFOR View Post
    What I'd be curious to see would be a time/place breakdown; something that said you have a .00001% chance of being attacked per hour you spend at work (assuming you work in a building/environment that is open to the public), a .00002% chance of being attacked per hour spent in your home, a .00003% chance per hour of being attacked at the stop and rob, etc. (and of course, all those percentages are completely made up!)
    You could probably come up with a decent national estimate just by looking at BoJ stats for the "where," then making reasonable estimates (like: you work 40 hrs a week, which is some fraction of the yearly total hours, etc).... and develop relative fractions.

    Then, as soon as you do that, you can throw out the numbers since a national average is so unrelated to indivual cases. WHERE I work and WHERE I live and WHAT I do matters much more. They do have some crime statistics for occupations (unsurprisingly, convenience store clerks and taxi drivers are way up there on the list). I don't remember where I read that list though. What matters is: where you live; what job you have; where your jobsite is; do you "do stupid things with stupid people in stupid places;" your commute; etc.

  7. #67
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    Yes, of course the national averages would have less relevance then other factors, but they'd be interesting to see (and just as enlightening and important as the stats in the article that started the thread).
    A man fires a rifle for many years, and he goes to war. And afterward he turns the rifle in at the armory, and he believes he's finished with the rifle. But no matter what else he might do with his hands - love a woman, build a house, change his son's diaper - his hands remember the rifle.

  8. #68
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    Good stats followed by a thoughtful discussion. Good thread!
    Lex et Libertas Semper Vigilo, Fortis, Paratus, et Fidelis!

    "Not only do the people who put their lives on the line to protect the rest of us deserve better, we all deserve better than to have our own security undermined by those who undermine law enforcement." -Thomas Sowell

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigEFan View Post
    Good stats followed by a thoughtful discussion. Good thread!
    Yes indeed.
    I am surprised at some of the responses, BTW.
    The stats are what they are.

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    Never tell me the odds :-)

    I'd rather be over prepared than rely on the BGs to fall into the averages
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  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tangle View Post
    ddg9,

    Tom Givens has had 40 civies involved in gunfights after taking his class(s)? That seems incrediably high, especially considering good training teaches avoidance first.

    I may not be understanding something here, there are stats that disclose how many shots and hits civilians get in a gunfight?
    Hey Ron , long time no see.

    Here is some clarification......

    Tom Givens' school is in Memphis. For those of you not familiar Memphis has the highest rate of violent crime for a city its size in the US and is pretty close to highest violent crime rates for ALL cities in the US no matter the size. A LOT of people get shot stabbed and bludgeoned in Memphis.A lot of people get raped killed and beaten in Memphis. Tom probably has more folks come through his CCW classes in a year than any other school in Tennessee. Look at the TN totals of CCW holders per county. Shelby County is ALWAYS #1. And he has A LOT of folks that take more advanced classes with him. Every class I have been to at his place has been full.

    Avoidance is a hallmark of good training, but when the bad guys decide it is on, it is on. And in Shelby County there are A LOT of thugs running around on the streets. You have a hard time avoiding them all. Now, I'm not suggesting that everyone in Memphis gets robbed 4 times a week. But with literally THOUSANDS of students coming through your door your odds of some of them getting involved in a gunfight here and there (especially THERE) is pretty good.

    The stats that DGG was referring to were the stats for Tom's students. He interviews them and compiles records. I'm not aware of anyone else that has that size data base of their students let alone that many students that have been involved in gunfights...imagine how many he has probably had that drew without having to shoot.....

    What I was talking about in that post that DGG reproduced here was about the presentation Tom did at NTI (National Tactical Invitational) this year. He looked at 7 shootings and compiled the info from them.Keep in mind though that this list is people who are at least savvy enough to get SOME training. They also were folks who carried guns ON THEM. That is a big delineation. The overwhelming majority of gun owners (EVEN the CCW holders) RARELY carry. So these are incidents happening to the self selecting small percentage that chooses to get training (even if it is just a CCW class) and then actually CARRY a gun on them.

    While the NRA "Armed Citizen" shows all kinds of incidences where untrained folks prevail against non-determined attackers, I really would be hesitant to call that any kind of endorsement for being as ignorant as possible as a strategy. And remember the NRA does not report the LOSSES. It doesn't print stories about people who answer their door and get beaten raped and set on fire. Look at the agenda. Not that there is anything wrong with some good old fashioned pro gun/pro armed "joe citizen" propaganda, but you have to take it all in context. Yes everyday citizens with NO training prevail every day. But average citizens with no training get killed and beaten and raped everyday too. Again not exactly an endorsement for not taking a class.

    As far as statistics in general go ...No one compiles data on legitimate shootings. They only keep records on crimes.A legit shooting is NOT A CRIME so no records are compiled. If the NRA picks up on it then maybe, but officially no one compiles that data. The FBI keeps records of officers killed in the line of duty but they could care less about armed citizens killed. Kill a cop and they want every detail. Kill a wife and mother of 3 and that is not of any interest. So there is a problem with the data available... the lack of it.

    Tom says he and Ed Lovette actually discussed Ed's data and it comes from somewhere that no one (or very few) carry guns on the street . So OBVIOUSLY the incidences of legit uses of self defense would be in a business (where they can have guns) or in their home (where they can have guns). THAT is what no one is picking up on here. So the data while interesting is limited.

    At NTI the judge that followed me around through the "village" told me he can tell where someone is from without even talking to them. The guys from the South West are quick to pull a gun and will give you a warning then shoot in the Force on Force scenarios at NTI. The guys from the South will shoot you before they talk to you if they feel threatened. The guys from the Northeast almost have to be zapped with a cattle prod before they will pull a gun and then still try to run away....Why is this? Culture, mores, and jurisdictional differences. In New England no one (figuratively speaking) carries a gun on them. The state and local govt doesn't allow that kind of thing or at least does not look favorably upon it. Where as in the SW or SE it is a lot more common and the culture is a culture where self defense is not only accepted, but culturally encouraged. So data drawn from the self selecting folks who get training and go armed in Memphis Tennessee is going to absolutely be different than what it will be from the Northeast. Not that there is anything WRONG with Ed's data. But the US is not a monolithic cultural block. The culture and crime patterns in Salt Lake City do not necessarily match those in Atlanta or Washington DC. While in Jasper Tn a drunk redneck wanting to fight is common, a multiple adversary gang attack is more likely in Memphis or New Orleans. Context.

    As far as well trained folks avoiding fights ...yes that happens every day. We just do not go stupid places to do stupid things with stupid people. And if you live by that you will avoid most problems that YOU have control over. If some psycho kicks my door in at 2am I can't control that. But I'm dang sure not going to go to a run down convenience store at the worst intersection of the worst part of town to buy a lighter at 2AM either.3 Stupids rule.

    Also folks that have taken a lot of training and are above average in their ability do not make good targets. They tend to be more aware and they often exude a confidence that bad guys pick up on. Remember, as Southnarc says.."the bad guys are not looking for a test of martial skill they are looking for an easy payday". And most folks that are the self selecting 5% just do not often get picked. But they are such a small percentage anyway, the BGs would have to look long and hard to pick them for victims in the first place if they wanted the test of martial skill......

    The bottom line is this (from my perspective). Any good training will up your odds. Not because you can shoot better, but that helps. The big thing is any good training will have a mindset component to it that helps you be more aware and make better decisions. And then IF you still can't avoid it helps you deal with the problem because you are not trying to rationalize "WHY ME?" but instead are working to solve the problem. Can you survive with no training ? Absolutely. But I might finish in the top 30 at a NASCAR race too if I were thrust into the car right before the race.....but I wouldn't bet on it.

    Training is never a detriment. Having a high quality reliable duty type firearm will never be worse than having a rusty old derringer. No one has ever said " Crap I wish I didn't have this extra ammo". We never know what the fight will be or who it will be with. Might it be a 50 year old crack head who's just looking to score enough money to go get another rock? Sure. He'll likely run at the first sign of any resistance. But what if it is a young guy with a lot of criminal experience looking to further his standing and his reputation in front of his gangbanger buddies? Now you have an honor/reputation situation with multiple attackers and these are very dangerous situations indeed. Probably not where you want to just be carrying that jframe you have not shot since last February......

    Keep things in context. Typical civilian fights are close. 0- 10 FEET is most common. They happen fast. They don't TYPICALLY involve a lot of shots fired, but they do enough that some of us that study this have adapted our wardrobe to carry a full size hi cap pistol daily. They do show trends of almost 50% now including an accomplice whether you can see him initially or not. So it is best to assume there is one more than you see. And last but not least, the will to prevail is more important than anything else. If you have to take action do it suddenly and violently and do not give up.

    Be safe out there.

  12. #72
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    Thats a ******* long first post. :)

    welcome to the forums

  13. #73
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    A lot of very interesting info. Thanks.

  14. #74
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    Hey CHL,

    I don't think anyone is questioning that training is better than no training. I've had more than most and plan to do some more. But the issue as I see it is that we continue to find that armed citizens with no or minimal training survive deadly encounters. Would it be better for them to have training? I would presume so, but it depends on the situation. If a person is awakened one night with a guy sitting on top of them, I kinda doubt handgun training is gonna make much difference. Yet that's exactly what some of the citizens discussed in the article faced and they still prevailed.

    Another incredible thing is that those involved in these incidents didn't even have a gun on their person and had to go retrieve it!

    As I have repeatedly mentioned, it is also reported that guns are used anywhere from a million to two million times a year in self-defense. What percentage of those would you say had significant training?

    I'm not by any means saying that training isn't important - not at all. But I do have to look at the facts. We have several sources indicating that guns are used for self-defense from 1 - 2 million times a year, and the results of research via this article strongly indicates minimally trained armed citizens do much, much better than we 'trained' guys would have thought they would.

    I'm simply saying many people will survive with a gun and minimal training based on past performance of millions of cases. I still believe most would benefit from more than just minimal training, but I'll be honest, I'm overwhelmed at the success of minimally trained armed citizens.

    And let's face it, minimal training is where most gun owners are. They typically buy a gun, the salesman goes over the manual of arms, etc., the guy takes the gun home and puts it in a drawer and the ammo somewhere else. A small percentage may take a CCW course and shoot 50 rounds through their gun for that and that's their training. No pieing corners, no use of cover and concealment, no speed reloads, no tactical light training, etc. That's where most gun owners are. We know that's true. So how's that working for them? Very well, that's exactly the depiction in the article. They don't even carry their gun on them! They have to go get it to use it. These successes fly in the face of the training dogma.

    If we accept that guns are used in self-defense over a million times a year, how do we resolve the conundrum that the vast majority of these people have minimal training, if any, and shouldn't be doing this well?

    If you’re trying to convince me that training is important, then you're preaching to the choir. I just added up the hours I've had at training schools, not range time, training at schools - it's well over 1800 hours, including HTH, edged weapons, handgun, and tactical shotgun.

    But, I think the point of the article was to open our eyes to some of the characteristics of successful defenses using guns. The success is much better than we thought. IF the defenses typified in the article was unique to a particular area, then some of the data may be skewed one way or another. But the article does accurately typify the vast majority of gun owners. OTOH, the data from Givens does exactly the same thing that is claimed is done in the article - it focuses one small area. The millions of incidents does not; it is a cross-section all over the nation.

    I think some are thinking I'm saying minimal training is enough. I'm not. I'm saying based on millions of cases over wide cross-sectional areas, minimal training is working better than we would have imagined. If you have evidence contrary to this and of the same magnitude, let's see it.
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  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tangle View Post
    If we accept that guns are used in self-defense over a million times a year, how do we resolve the conundrum that the vast majority of these people have minimal training, if any, and shouldn't be doing this well?
    1. Most DGUs of that huge number are won by brandishing. The shots-fired kind are fewer.

    2. I question that the untrained are doing "that well." If you look at BoJ or NCVS stats, people who resisted an attack with a firearm do better than those who don't resist or resist some other way. But not 10x better. Some percentage better (I don't remember off hand the actual numbers). Whereas I'm sure Tom Givens graduates prevail at a higher percentage. The difference between unarmed vs untrained vs well-trained is pronounced.

    3. And finally, I don't know if the BoJ stats will tell you if the people who "resisted with a firearm" actually shot the firearm and how well that latter group did. I.e., if you subtract away the brandishing events and look at actual gunfights, what's the success rate of the untrained vs well-trained. Those would be interesting numbers.

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