Would it make a difference?

Would it make a difference?

This is a discussion on Would it make a difference? within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Over the past few months with the VA Tech, and the Omaha mall shootings, the forum has been full of scenarios and what if's regarding ...

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  1. #1
    VIP Member Array farronwolf's Avatar
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    Would it make a difference?

    Over the past few months with the VA Tech, and the Omaha mall shootings, the forum has been full of scenarios and what if's regarding gun free zones.

    My question is, how much of a differnence would it make if those areas where not restricted to concealed carry of firearms, or would it make a difference at all?

    I am going to use Texas as an example. In Texas only about 260,000 out of 23,000,000 people have concealed carry permits. That is only a bit over 1% of the population. From the information on this forum which by no means is scientific, I am saying that about 1/2 of the concealed carry holders would, (if, the opportunity presented itself, no rambo's here), attempt to stop the threat of a person on a shooting rampage.

    So out of 200 people in a given enviroment, 1 would be willing and able, if the situation presented itself to attempt to stop the killing. Given that the areas of VA Tech and malls and the like are large, the probability of a person with a CCL being in the immediate area of the shootings goes down substantially lower than the 1%.

    Would eliminating gun free zones be able to make an dissernable difference in the number of people that die in situations like this? For the person that has the permit, it is a given, I think we all can agree on that, but for the population as a whole would there be any difference in the numbers of deaths during the few minutes these things play out?

    Based on the numbers, my answer is no, it won't make any difference to the population as a whole, not until there are substantially more individuals with permits.

    Mods, please move if needed. Thanks.
    Just remember that shot placement is much more important with what you carry than how big a bang you get with each trigger pull.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Array walvord's Avatar
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    I think we ought to try it and find out - but unfortunately that probably won't happen.
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  3. #3
    Distinguished Member Array Gunnutty's Avatar
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    It made a difference in the mall shooting in the Northwest a while back with an off duty cop there that was armed and willing.
    We will be much better off when we learn to deal with things as they really are, instead of how we wish them to be!

  4. #4
    Member Array phaed's Avatar
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    Would eliminating gun free zones be able to make an dissernable difference in the number of people that die in situations like this?
    how many "success" stories do you read here and other places that don't get as much media attention as the bad stuff? probably quite a few. i know i was suprised to learn how many there are every day when i first started reading up on them.

    how many of those success stories are in no carry zones? not many, if any...because we obey the law. it follows logically, that the number of success stories could increase if the amount of no carry zones were decreased.

    i'm not saying that it will solve all the issues with criminals, but i think it would help. any increase in success should be welcome, no matter the amount.
    War is not the ugliest of things. Worse is the decayed state of moral feeling which thinks nothing is worth a war. A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which he cares for more than his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free. -J.S. Mill

  5. #5
    VIP Member Array havegunjoe's Avatar
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    I agree. I think that real change comes about in states or areas when CC rises above a certain percent of the population. What that percent is I don't know. I would guess it would have to be over say 5%. That being said I think most of us carry for our and our families protection, not society as a whole. I also think that it would increase the odds by having CC permit holders potentially in those gun free zones as opposed to LE which we know is not there. In TX that would be potentially 260,000 more chances.
    DEMOCRACY IS TWO WOLVES AND A LAMB VOTING ON WHAT TO HAVE FOR LUNCH. LIBERTY IS A WELL ARMED LAMB CONtestING THE VOTE.

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  6. #6
    VIP Member Array farronwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunnutty View Post
    It made a difference in the mall shooting in the Northwest a while back with an off duty cop there that was armed and willing.
    I didn't include the numbers of law enforcement, because in Texas and I am sure most other states, gun free zones do not apply to them when they are off duty. I may be wrong on that, surely someone will correct me.
    Just remember that shot placement is much more important with what you carry than how big a bang you get with each trigger pull.
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  7. #7
    Member Array Puppy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by farronwolf View Post
    Over the past few months with the VA Tech, and the Omaha mall shootings, the forum has been full of scenarios and what if's regarding gun free zones.

    My question is, how much of a differnence would it make if those areas where not restricted to concealed carry of firearms, or would it make a difference at all?

    I am going to use Texas as an example. In Texas only about 260,000 out of 23,000,000 people have concealed carry permits. That is only a bit over 1% of the population. From the information on this forum which by no means is scientific, I am saying that about 1/2 of the concealed carry holders would, (if, the opportunity presented itself, no rambo's here), attempt to stop the threat of a person on a shooting rampage.

    So out of 200 people in a given enviroment, 1 would be willing and able, if the situation presented itself to attempt to stop the killing. Given that the areas of VA Tech and malls and the like are large, the probability of a person with a CCL being in the immediate area of the shootings goes down substantially lower than the 1%.

    Would eliminating gun free zones be able to make an dissernable difference in the number of people that die in situations like this? For the person that has the permit, it is a given, I think we all can agree on that, but for the population as a whole would there be any difference in the numbers of deaths during the few minutes these things play out?

    Based on the numbers, my answer is no, it won't make any difference to the population as a whole, not until there are substantially more individuals with permits.

    Mods, please move if needed. Thanks.
    It also made a difference in a law school near Va Tech a few years before.

  8. #8
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    PA with IIRC 6.75% CCW uptake gives better odds ......... but then so many folks who could carry - don't

    Other thing here is there are not fortunately many gun-free zones re shopping establishments so perhaps - were this kinda thing to go down here, there might be a CCW in the vicinity.

    Higher numbers of CCW folks and actually carrying - certainly could help these situations but even here right now - it'd be a matter of luck for ''one of us'' to be there just at the time and place to be able to intervene.

    I hear reports even recently of muggings or home invasion in my approx area ... even small store holdups. In recent times no reports of BG's being answered with lethal force. Makes me wonder sometimes how many people (who should be) are serious about their defense.
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  9. #9
    Senior Member Array Herknav's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by P95Carry View Post
    PA with IIRC 6.75% CCW uptake gives better odds ......... but then so many folks who could carry - don't
    And a lot of folks are licensed, but can't carry at work.

  10. #10
    New Member Array McCarry's Avatar
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    Pardon my simplistic take on the mathematical probabilities, but, it only takes one person to make a difference in these situations. So, in response to the original question posed, I believe the right person in the right place (or wrong place depending upon how you interpret it cosmically) could prevent such tragedies from occurring, or continuing to the level of death and destruction they most often inflict. So, if malls, schools, and other defenseless zones were eliminated, and CCW permit holders were not coerced into disarming themselves, the probability of an armed intervention (as an obvious last resort)would increase beyond the current near nil level.
    Live in the "NOW" and deal with what "Is."

  11. #11
    VIP Member Array havegunjoe's Avatar
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    Absolutely correct!

    Quote Originally Posted by McCarry View Post
    Pardon my simplistic take on the mathematical probabilities, but, it only takes one person to make a difference in these situations. So, in response to the original question posed, I believe the right person in the right place (or wrong place depending upon how you interpret it cosmically) could prevent such tragedies from occurring, or continuing to the level of death and destruction they most often inflict. So, if malls, schools, and other defenseless zones were eliminated, and CCW permit holders were not coerced into disarming themselves, the probability of an armed intervention (as an obvious last resort)would increase beyond the current near nil level.
    Any increase is a positive overall and I say why not use all the resources that are available to you?
    DEMOCRACY IS TWO WOLVES AND A LAMB VOTING ON WHAT TO HAVE FOR LUNCH. LIBERTY IS A WELL ARMED LAMB CONtestING THE VOTE.

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  12. #12
    VIP Member Array Supertac45's Avatar
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    We can't possibly know where someone with a CCW and gun would be; so, it could have made a differance. We'll never know in this case.
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  13. #13
    Distinguished Member Array kazzaerexys's Avatar
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    Well, I brought this up in another thread where the general consensus towards an Omaha like situation was to take cover and protect one's own family rather than 'go after' the shooter. With maybe 2--3% of people having CCW licenses most places, and some of them not even carrying, figure that maybe 1% could be carrying. Pick a random whacko at the mall and place the nearest 100 people. That gets spread out to the point that it makes stopping the whacko very tough.

    On the other hand, I think we do need to note that the deterrent effect of guns being allowed likely prevents the whacko from going there at all. Suicide by cop is one thing, but getting mowed down by granny just doesn't do much for your blaze of glory! So, yeah, the statistical breakdown may stop an occasional rampage, but the bigger advantage is in avoiding the rampage in the first place...

  14. #14
    VIP Member Array peacefuljeffrey's Avatar
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    It's long past time that we at least let people have the OPTION.

    It's madness that we keep seeing these things happen at places where the antis are telling us that safety is enhanced by the banning of guns, and no people in real power are standing up and saying, "Wait a minute. If ...THIS is something that can happen in a place with a gun ban, what good is the damned gun ban?"

    We need to be LOUD about this. Gun bans have shown themselves to be 100% USELESS against real evil, several times in very recent memory! How much is it gonna take before this lesson is beat into the head of the antis and more importantly the fence-sitters?

  15. #15
    New Member Array McCarry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peacefuljeffrey View Post
    It's long past time that we at least let people have the OPTION.

    It's madness that we keep seeing these things happen at places where the antis are telling us that safety is enhanced by the banning of guns, and no people in real power are standing up and saying, "Wait a minute. If ...THIS is something that can happen in a place with a gun ban, what good is the damned gun ban?"

    We need to be LOUD about this. Gun bans have shown themselves to be 100% USELESS against real evil, several times in very recent memory! How much is it gonna take before this lesson is beat into the head of the antis and more importantly the fence-sitters?
    Exactly!
    Live in the "NOW" and deal with what "Is."

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