This is a discussion on Self-defense expectations: "normal" vs. abnormal within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by ken45 I feel that I have a reliable gun and magazine. There is a very low probability that I will need to ...
Strap in, this is gonna be a long one...
My take is this: We as CCW'ers/students of self-defense are already pessimistic people...we arm ourselves and [hopefully] train to deal with a situation that is statistically unlikely to ever occur.
For example, according to the FBI UCR's, in 2006 there were an estimated 1,417,745 violent crimes (Murder, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault). Roughly, that means that there is 1 violent crime per year for every 211 people. In other words, overall, you have about a 1/2% chance of being the victim of a violent crime (obviously this is the overall average, living in a major metro-area vs. a rural area will affect this).
Now obviously, I'm not saying that we don't need to be prepared, far from it. The problem as I see it is that oftentimes, many people choose to assume that if they're the targeted as the victim of a violent crime, that they will still be able to prevail with sub-optimal equipment (or I guess sub-sub-optimal since pistols are anemic little weapons). and training. That is, if they're involved in a statistically unlikely event, the event will play out in the "average" fashion. To me this doesn't make a whole lot of sense...anyone ever hear of Murphy's Law?
In this thread I've already seen comments like "the average incident is resolved with only 2 or 3 rounds being fired." Well, maybe so, but what if you're involved in one of the incidents where 2 or 3, or even 6 or 7 rounds doesn't do the job. It is not really that uncommon to hear of incidents where the BG had to be hit with 10 rounds or more. If all you're carrying is a 5-shot snubbie, you're S.O.L. at that point.
Many (probably most) people that train for self-defense, whether it's with a firearm or in some form of martial-arts, are guilty of training for the "Lowest Common Denominator" or the "average" attacker. As a martial-arts student and instructor, I've seen many people that want to assume that their training is adequate. Furthermore, it seems that most train with the idea that their attacker is going to be less skilled than they are and thay their super-duper kung-foo moves are going to allow them to prevail against just about anybody. The same flawed mindset is found with "gun people" (or, to borrow a phrase from Brownie, "guncentric" people) Many CCW'ers assume (notice my repeated use of that word ) that the BG is not going to be as skilled and/or that 5-shot snubby is going to be adequate to handle any situation.
What these two groups have in common is this: they have constructed their own mental picture of what "the fight" is going to look like and they are allowing that picture to dictate their equipment choices and training. The fact that "the fight" may, in reality, bear no resemblance whatsoever to their mental picture is just an inconvienance to be ignored.
With martial-artists specifically, many times it's also that they just don't want to get in there and do the work (real, effective training is going to require some sweat)...they want a cute technique that will "stop the BG in his tracks" with a minimum of effort on their part.
Among the "guncentric" crowd, I think it's often a matter of convienance. They carry a J-frame or Kel-tec as their primary because they're comfortable and easy to carry even though neither weapon is really ideal. To quote one instructor: "small guns are great to carry but they suck to fight with." Now if you're one of those that carry such a weapon because their situation dictates such a choice (i.e. the need for absolute concealment), so be it...you do what you gotta do.
---here's where I get in trouble and stomp on people's toes---
On the other hand there are those, as I mentioned above, that carry such a weapon as a matter of convienance because carrying a decent-sized auto (for example, a compact with 10-15 round capacity) with a spare mag is "uncomfortable." Then make statements like "gunfights end with 2 or 3 shots," or "if ya can't do it with 5/6, you shouldn't be carrying a gun." IMO, these people are oftentimes just trying to rationalize and justify their poor equipment choice by quoting statistics that should, AFAIC, have no real bearing on our equipment and training choices.
Okay, I'm shutting up now...By all means, prepare to defend yourself, but don't waste your time preparing for the "average incident" or the lowest common denominator.
"Being a predator isn't always comfortable but the only other option is to be prey. That is not an acceptable option." ~Phil Messina
If you carry in Condition 3, you have two empty chambers. One in the weapon...the other between your ears.
Good post Kenpotex.
Someone said something about they would not fire 12 rounds into a crowded environment to stop a gunman. Well kids that is EXACTLY what Jean Assam did to stop the guy in the Colorado church shooting and the only person she hit was the BG. From what I understand her first shots were fired at him from about 35 yards away.
Who here is confident about making a 35 yard shot with their Kel tec P32? And reload it under fire?
And as far as the "if I can't do it in 5 or 6 then I have no business being there". Well guess what. YOU don't always determine the circumstances of the fight. Mark Allen Wilson didn't EXPECT to be confronted with a body armor wearing AK wielding psycho the morning of Feb 24, 2005 in Tyler Texas. This is one where it took more than "5 or 6" and Wilson was in fact killed while trying to reload his pistol after hitting David Arroyo several times.
And before we say "well he didn't HAVE to get involved" remember he made a good samaritan decision to try and stop someone who was KILLING PEOPLE. Would you prefer that everyone be docile sheep and just wait for the police to handle everything? How long does that take? In many places a pizza will get there before the cops will. So IF you find yourself in this type situation and you decidde to do something other than cower in the corner I'll bet you'd prefer to have a serious caliber pistol with a bunch of ammo on board.
Someone else mentioned that a lot of ammo leads to spray and pray. That is really more a training issue though. Hi cap guns do not MAKE you spray and pray. That is a CHOICE. When Deputy Kyle Dinkheller was killed during a traffic stop in Jan 12 1998 he fired 31 shots at the BG and scored ONE grazing hit. Why? You still need to look at the front sight even if you do carry a 15 shot pistol.On the other hand Jason Philipelli of Memphis was confronted with 2 BG in his home and scored 7 hits out of 8 shots fired.He hit BG #1 five times and BG #2 twice (7 shots to stop them? So much for a J frame ALWAYS being enough). So you CAN hit what you aim at...if that is what you trained to do.
Deputy Dinkheller was hit 11 times with rounds from Andrew Brannan's .30 carbine, but only the FINAL shot was fatal. So MAYBE even with a rifle it could take more than "2 or 3" to stop someone. In fact, my good friend Tom Givens tells me that Memphis TN emergency room statistics show that out of every 11 people admitted with handgun gunshot wounds 7 of the 11 are treated and released the SAME DAY. Two of the 11 are held overnight for observation, One of 11 stays in hospital 2 weeks or more and #11 is a fatality. Not exactly what we see in movies huh?
And as far as # and quality of badguys go, the numbers are trending toward multiple assailants 50% of the time and the talk now is about gang members who join the military to get combat training to use when they come home. Not exactly a comforting thought as you go about your day with you .22 pocket pistol is it?
So while trite little sayings and gunshop commando truisms make us feel better about our "ballistic passifier" we carry, there are no guarantees and the fight you find yourself in may NOT be able to be solved with 2 or 3 shots, no matter what caliber they are.
I, personally, find it to be to my family and my benefit to carry for the worst and run in to the best rather than the other way around. There is a reason that cops carry two reloads, I'm studying to become a Police Officer, and it makes perfect sense to me. Besides, this way the pistol is balanced better on my belt.
A few of you have noted the dangers of "shooting in a crowded place" e.g. a mall, for example. I'm not a tactical trainer, I don't play one on TV and I haven't stayed at Holiday Inn Express for a while. I suspect there are those who read these lists who DO have some significant tactical background. My completely uneducated hunch is, that the moment anybody starts popping rounds, the natural human response is to scoot! I can imagine that a shooter would find themselves rapidly isolated, even if he/she/they began in a crowd. It's a bit of a tangent, but seems a part of this discussion.
Any insights from those of you who know such things?
I took the NRA Personal Protection Outside the Home class last weekend. One of the sections of the book is dealing with multiple assailants and different distances.
The picture they uses in one part said it all. One female with a snubby -vs- 5 "BGs" advancing on her. She couldn't miss once, and every hit would have to stop one BG. Those odds suck.
I'll stick with a 1911 with two spare mags. I'd rather carry too much zombie gear and not need it.
"If I was an extremist, our founding fathers would all be extremists," he said. "Without them, we wouldn't have our independence. We'd be a disarmed British system of feudal subjectivity."
The vast majority of criminals are cowards looking for easy pickings. Do you really think that if she shot ONE of them, the others are going to keep coming and find out who is #2?
As Kleck maintains, for the vast majority of times that a firearm is used in self defense, it isn't even fired. Just the mere presence of a gun and someone ready to defend themselves will end the confrontation most of the time.
The problem with that logic is that if they ALL rush her they will cover the distance before she gets BG #2 .Unless she knows what to do to make things more difficult for them then they will be on her before she can shoot again. Then it is a 4 on 1 weapon retention issue. Who do we think will win that??? And she'll likely be shooting #1 about the time he gets to her. They'll be on top of her by the time they even realize she has shot one of them. At that point they will be much more likely to do really nasty things to her than to turn and run.
Many folks have no idea of how fast these things actually happen. It is not like TV where they stand 10 yards away and talk for 2 minutes before they act.
So ASSUMING that the mere presence of a gun will cause them to run or even shooting one of them will cause them to run is NOT something I would bank on......
I still think that the people that are carrying 30+ rounds and 2-3 guns are going to eventually put themselves in the hero situation they are preparing for and find that they are outclassed, outgunned, and probably dead. The mentality of multiple attackers, for instance dunn's post with a woman with 5 BG's advancing on her...I don't care how many reloads you have. In that case 5 shots is just as good as 100. Only exception being an automatic. That's absurd to plan on such things. It's not going to happen, and if it does, no preparation, training, carry options on your part is going to save you. It will come down to luck. And you having a gun in as bad a situation as you are painting, will probably only ensure you end up dead instead of just losing your wallet. This isn't a video game. Grow up. Nobody here, nobody in SWAT, nobody in the Navy Seals, nobody in Recon, and nobody in LEO should ever engange multiple targets in a crowded area where the targets are aided by superior weaponry and armor. Some of you are saying you are preparing for the absolute worst. Well, I think the 'preparation' as you call it, is 1. inadequate, and 2. will probably end up giving you a false sense of security if a situation like that ever comes up.
Sheepdog: "Well, I know there are 5 attackers wearing body armor with automatic rifles, but, what the heck, I have 3 extra magazines...That should even things out..."
20 minutes later
Coroner: "Hey, help me pick this guy up."
And once again, This isn't a video game.
A shot from concealment to end a BG's day...Absolutely, in a heart beat.
Engaging multiple shooters in a crowded area(with any amount of rounds). Get real.
I don't think (maybe I'm wrong) anyone here is advocating charging in to a situation with multiple visibly armed and armored attackers. That would be crazy.
But the other end of the spectrum, carrying a .22 derringer because bad things hapening is statisticly unlikely is just as foolish.
What I am advocating is carry the most efficient tools your wardrobe and lifestyle allows and get professional training. I'm not a 3 gun 6 magazine guy. I don't know any SERIOUS gunmen that are. I carry Glock 34 and 1 spare mag and a J frame. If I'm wearing something that I just cannot hide the big gun in I carry either 2 J frames or a G26 and the J frame.
When I talk about not preparing for least common denominator problem I mean training for more than 1 DEDICATED attacker and training from a initiative deficiency "not seeing it coming" standpoint.
Not zombie invasion........
I wasn't the one who started with the extremes..."One female with a snubby -vs- 5 "BGs" advancing on her." To prepare for things like that are idiotic. I play poker a lot. If I spent the entire time worrying if some guy was going to pull out a Royal Flush or Four of a Kind, I would lose a lot of money. To me, preparing for these extremes, and outlandish 'what ifs' is a waste of time and we all know that time could be better spent at the range...
With that said, I'm off to the range.
As one of the people that carry 30+ rounds and a 2nd gun, I can tell you the last thing I want to do is play hero. I've got 4 kids I'm raising by myself. At the end of the day, I'll do what I have to do to get home to them. Like I stated before, I'm comfortable with what I carry. If some want to think I'm looking to be a hero, Rambo type, so be it. Personally, I believe that anyone that thinks their quality handgun with their single quality magazine will work everytime, all the time, in all situations, hasn't spent enough time on a range. Another misconception is that the boogeyman is always alone, nope. He ain't always a coward, either. Even less so when they are in multiples. Yeah, I know that for a fact.
"Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must." - The Duke of Wellington
my main concern for higher cap is the possibility of running into more than one person. folks in gangs like to travel "deep". more and more of the home invasions you read about involve multiple targets.
War is not the ugliest of things. Worse is the decayed state of moral feeling which thinks nothing is worth a war. A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which he cares for more than his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free. -J.S. Mill