Any statisticians on the forum?
This is a discussion on I'm curious.... within the Concealed Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; I read what seemed to be a reliable stat the other day on a firearms web page that said in the 48 states where CC ...
I read what seemed to be a reliable stat the other day on a firearms web page that said in the 48 states where CC is legal; approx 1.3% of the population had CC licenses. If my gazintas are right; that's 13 people per 1,000. We all know lots of folks with CC licenses who don't carry regularly....seldom if ever.
Now to the I'm curious....
What are the chances of a scumbag like the one who shot up the southeastern US a few days ago running into one of us who will shoot back?
Thanks to all,
Any statisticians on the forum?
I carry as often as the NC Law permits.
I hope I never have to use my side arm for anything other then target shooting.
BUT, if it came down to it, I will not hesitate.
"Without fear there can be no Courage!"
Keep in mind that some of those states are may issue where large segments of the population may not be able to get a CC that normally would, that could skew the stats a bit. LA and NY come to mind, I believe nearly 20 million people in each city but good luck getting a CC there. Granted not all of those are people that would qualify for a CC permit but it should be in the same proportion as the other states as far as age and such are concerned.
Unfortunately, this is the reason that many people don't think that IT will ever happen to them.
I, on the other hand, always assume that I could be a target.
Stay armed...stay alert...stay safe!
The last Blood Moon Tetrad for this millennium starts in April 2014 and ends in September 2015...according to NASA.
Certified Glock Armorer
NRA Life Member
A rough estimate for NC is that 3% of the population has a CCW permit. NC publishes permit stats but they aren't real accurate. It is probably somewhere in the 220,000-240,000 range. The states population is around 8,000,000.
A while back it was in a news about a guy who was headed to court to finalize a divorce. He took a semi-auto AK-47. When his wife arrived he walked to the front of the court, gun in hand, and shot her and several others. He hit his own sone once. The guards inside returned fire. He shot down the guards (all injured save one). There happened to be a non-LEO CC holder who was there. CC hold pulled (I think a .45 ACP). Hit the shooter. Shooter turned and gunned down the guy. CC holder dead.
Now injured, the guy returns to his truck. Drives off and a mile down the road, shooting at LEO, his gun jams. Injured, trying to fix a jam, he crashes his truck. Come out of truck with a pistol. LEO shot him. The CC holder died. It did save the shooter's son (who had only been hit in the arm).
I'm not sure on all the details, but I'm close.
In the end, there are going to be those rare situations, where access to firearms are going to allow those type of people to do something like this, and armed citizens will not make much of a difference.
I believe there are many situations, far more common, when an armed citizen does make a very positive difference. As you point out, it is far to few. However, I'm not sure an armed citizen can change (much) the outcome of that type of shooter.
Another example would be a nut in building with a hunting rifle shooting at people. Now much a CC holder can do but duck and cover.
I don't know if the 3% that you state is accurate, but you have to remember, there are DA's, judges, retired officers, etc who do not have to get a permit, so the percentage of people who carry could be quite a bit higher.
There are two sides to every issue: one side is right and the other is wrong, but the middle is always evil.
Who is John Galt?
While this does not answer your question directly, it will lend some insight on the armed citizen. Click here
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups"
Personally I take offense to even being catagorized with the "may issue states". 9 states are "may issue". Good luck getting a permit in these states. I think people refering to states like Illinois say "48 states cant be wrong" is bogus. Think how these stats would be different if 48 states were" shall issue".
Prepare for the worst and hope it never happens
It's not just the hard stats of the likelihood of a CCW encountering a would-be mass murderer that matter, but also the perception that there are some CCW folk who might be around. This alone, I think, tends to reduce the willingness of the bad guys to risk it. That's why the UK has many times the rate of home break-ins than the US.
My wife says because we're in a small town we don't need to carry. I still do but she frowns on it. Now I bet she's rethinking it a bit.
The odds in my state are high btw. 1 in 14 have a LTCH here. (ccw oc for those outside of our state) We've got the second highest permit rate in the US followed by New York of all places.
They can't take your right to own a firearm. They can ask with force and you can answer any way you choose.
you'ld have to calculate for the CCL's in that area, if it was a "gun free zone", and any other factors such as how often CCL's go to that type of location, etc.
Otherwise .... it's 1.3%.
The key is..... they don't know which one's we are , or aren't... as we're concealed. So, it plants some doubt in their minds. IT only takes ONE.
An armed populace are called citizens.
An unarmed populace are called subjects.
Looks like 3% of the state of FL has permits. Of those, I'd imagine considerably less carry regularly. That figure is based on ~554,000 permits. I doubt that figure includes a good majority, if any, of the 187,162 concealed-weapon permit applications over the last six months.
As for whether I'd pull the trigger, I'm going to say yes. The Mrs has asked me the same question a few times, and I tell her the same. I'll let you know what happens, if and when the time comes.