What has two thumbs and is a nerd...THIS GUY! (One-Shot-Stop Calculation) - Page 2

What has two thumbs and is a nerd...THIS GUY! (One-Shot-Stop Calculation)

This is a discussion on What has two thumbs and is a nerd...THIS GUY! (One-Shot-Stop Calculation) within the Defensive Ammunition & Ballistics forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; So does three good hits with a 75% one shot stop round, that in total equals 225%, gurantee a three shot stop?...

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Thread: What has two thumbs and is a nerd...THIS GUY! (One-Shot-Stop Calculation)

  1. #16
    VIP Member Array Guantes's Avatar
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    So does three good hits with a 75% one shot stop round, that in total equals 225%, gurantee a three shot stop?
    "I do what I do." Cpl 'coach' Bowden, "Southern Comfort".


  2. #17
    VIP Member Array Cuda66's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guantes View Post
    So does three good hits with a 75% one shot stop round, that in total equals 225%, gurantee a three shot stop?
    Nope; it's the other way around... .75 x .75 x .75 = 42%

    There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.--RAH

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    There is a reason they try and make small bullets act like big bullets--Glockmann10mm

  3. #18
    VIP Member Array Guantes's Avatar
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    Just my luck.
    "I do what I do." Cpl 'coach' Bowden, "Southern Comfort".

  4. #19
    Ex Member Array BikerRN's Avatar
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    The only math I do these days is, "A little bit of something, or a whole lot of nothing."

    Therefore, instead of making calculations of the sort that will confuse and confound all but the most dedicated among us, I will just stick to my new math. That's where the "little bit of something, or a whole lot of nothing" comes in. Turn me loose at the reloading press boys, and then stand waaaaaaay back. :)

    Calculations don't override results. Therefore I will consider and factor in to my considerations, the "statistical math result" but also look at and consider the morgue results. Then I will combine the two and make my selection. I'm of the opinion that if a load/bullet worked well in the past that it would continue to work well today. I'm not much on switching ammunition to the "bullet of the month" and place heavy emphasis on street proven results, knowing all the while that a true repeatable test cannot be accomplished.

    Biker

  5. #20
    VIP Member Array TedBeau's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuda66 View Post
    Nope; it's the other way around... .75 x .75 x .75 = 42%

    LOL talk about diminishing returns: .75 X .75 X .75 X .75 X .75. X .75 X .75 = .13 or 13%

    seriously, could the OP post the original spreadsheet, I would love to see it.

  6. #21
    VIP Member Array TedBeau's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtmoose View Post
    Perhaps it wasn't FBI, it may have been one of the others you mentioned. There was a link to it in a thread on here somewhere, not sure where. The numbers work out pretty close on most of them except the .357mag and the .40S&W not quite sure why though.
    Haven't you heard, the 357 Mag is a "Magic Bullet". The spreadsheet does not factor in the wand wave that all 357 Mag bullets receive just before being placed in the shipping carton.

  7. #22
    Ex Member Array jtmoose's Avatar
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    By no means do I think this is the answer but I thought it was a different/fun way to apporach it - not to mention, what else would I be doing at work. Here is a copy of the table (with color scale formatting because work is really slow during the holidays)BulletRegression.pdf

  8. #23
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    It always bothers me when Larry Potterfield of MidwayUSA evaluates personal protection handguns and one part of his 3 part "points evaluation scale" is the ability of a caliber/cartridge to stop a bad guy with "one well placed KNOCK DOWN FACTOR shot" which is always on a paper plate COM.

    Does that bother anybody else or is it just a personal quirk of mine?


  9. #24
    Member Array jcsftwre's Avatar
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    Thanks for taking the time to write this out for those of us that choose to use it. I love formulas like this (close to what I used in demolitions).

    People need to understand this is a visual point to start and one that can be changed to evaluate different combinations of factors.

    After all the math is done shot placement is plugged into the outcome by common sense.

    We all know a shot in the “Cerebellum” with the worse bullet (in performance) is better than a shot in the big toe with the best bullet.

    Thanks again and I’m sure I will run a lot of bullet statistics through this formula before I’m done with it.
    Europe Defense Veterans of America
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  10. #25
    Distinguished Member Array bladenbullet's Avatar
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    so...'numbers guys"...are you gonna use the optimum round and take one shot, assess success and decide whether multiple shots are necessary?...or are you gonna give em the whole 9 yards and live to see another day?....

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by bladenbullet View Post
    so...'numbers guys"...are you gonna use the optimum round and take one shot, assess success and decide whether multiple shots are necessary?...or are you gonna give em the whole 9 yards and live to see another day?....
    Not this numbers guy. The number-crunching is fun, and since I'm a career experimentalist it's interesting to see if a trend can be discerned by looking at historical data. But for saving my hide, I'm using rounds that have been proven effective in the real world.
    Smitty
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  12. #27
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    It is an interesting formula, and though the comparison of 200gr 45ACP to 130gr 357mag raises questions about its usefulness, it does say nice things about my SD ammo.

    Golden Sabre JHP 45ACP+P 185gr/1140fps

    (-61.82)+(17.519*1)+(286.119*.451)+(-.068*185)+(.022*1140) = 97.24%

    Though it doesn't make much difference, as I was pretty confident with my choice already...

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