Yep just as died but it all so much more about first shot placement followed buy how well the bullet you choice works in tissue then the round. Even how well the firearm you choice works for accuracy and follow up shots. A full sized 1911 9mm would be easier to control over a 11oz 9mm that you can just hold with 2 fingers. Practice, pratice, practice with what ever you carry.
Is anyone ready to give up their large caliber handgun and replace it with a 22? Maybe a 32? You believe it or you don't. Who's first?
The thing that stuck out most to me was the fatality percentage, being the highest with .357 and .22 at 34% The highest of all the handgun calibers.
I understand that stopping power is what is important not being fatal. It just seemed strange.
Outstanding work JD. :35:
This is VERY interesting reading! Thank you for your very hard work. I'll add my $.02 worth just for consideration. Your study may indicate that the psychological effect may be the single most important factor in determining One Stop Shots (OSS). A wide spectrum of confounding factors is left out of the study. Bullet Type was not taken into account. Offender Type was also not factored in. A Type 1 offender would be sent fleeing by the mere presence of an capable guardian. A Type 2 offender would be stopped by a threat of force or minimal use of force. A Type 3 offender who is drugged, psychotic or mission focused would have to be physically incapacitated. If you could sort your data to filter out all but Type 3 offenders who were OSS/Incapaciated with Multiple shots or Failed to Stop and what type of caliber/pressure level/projectileconfiguration/bullet mass was used, I think you may have the most realistice and useful study ever done!
Again, I have to reiterate that I did not do this study, all credit goes to Greg Ellifritz of TDI.
The Buckeye Firearms Assoc. reposted it and did up some nice graphics.
For those that look at the study and think better of of their mouse guns or for those that think the author of the article is advocating the .22 etc. look at this nice little chart...
This is what it boils down to:
The author suggests that there is not a lot of difference in stopping power by caliber when you look at "% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)." Since the size of the sample used to compile the stats varies so greatly by caliber, I ran some stats to compute the error ranges (at 95% confidence) for each type. The results show that there is simply insufficient observations in some cases to make claims between calibers. For example, the chart shows that if we look at 49% "% incapacitated" for the .25 ACP that the actual "% incapacitated" would be expected to be between 61% (light blue bar) and 37% (yellow bar) at 95% confidence. The error ranges coupled with other differences such as the type of ammunition used (FMJ vs. Hollow Point) etc., make it difficult to come to any conclusion another than the difference by caliber is not that great.
69% is still a FAILING grade in my gradebook if you have to actually shoot someone. All of the other factors that you have come up with in your equation to reach your percentage of 96.9% are simply "Voodoo Ballistics."
Originally Posted by adric22
.22LR beats a .25 ACP and a sharp pointy stick but just barely. If you are going to carry a mouse gun then it should be no lower on the totem pole than a .380 ACP.
Stopping power with service caliber handguns according to Mitchell:
#1 Professional Training that is relevant, recent and realistic.
#2 Proper practice which is relevant, recent and realistic.
#3 Realistic expectations of your gear and of yourself. You aren't as good as you think you are. If you were, you wouldn't be talking about stopping power...
#4 FBI or IWBA Compliant ammo.
#5 Hitting what you shoot at - the brain, spine or heart.
#6 Don't be a fat guy who can't move fast because you will need to move explosively so you don't get shot.
#7 Shoot people before they can shoot you, so see #1, #2, #3, #5 & #6.
Sure why not. U might want to add:
1.1 Practice with the arm that u carry or will be using the most.
n.n Practice where u can do some combat shooting. You WILL be moving (or better be).
#8 there is NO fair in a fight.
I think the data is what it is. You can massage statistics to come out any way u desire.
EVERY gunfight (violent situatioin) is different from every other. IF the situations were all the same, probably extremely accurate.
A note on CC (handgun) in your car. If your piece is not accessible within .5 sec, why do u have it under your seat, holster (hip/back/ankle?) or glove box (you're dead)?
Wow!! it's a great post, and great work!!
but I did'nt see in the chart, other parameters in my opinion very important necessary to establish the correct stopping power : the number of yard of hit, the kind of bullet (RN, FMJ, hollow point etc..etc..) inches of barrell of the handgun etc..etc..
IMHO my opinion
I can't believe I never posted this back when this was first published, as it's something I say any time statistics are used to justify something.
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain
Like I said before, thanks for sharing this with us, but I had to post this. ^ :image035:
I must agree with you
Great post, and I am glad you posted this instead of me too! AS I don't need the flack.
I worked with Marshal & Sanow indirectly to do the DVD of their book Handgun Stopping Power' for Paladin Press. I had good understanding of terminal ballistics as well as having seen them up close and personal.
I did weeks of ballistic gelatin test and got the same basic results they did testing all calibers they included. The TSC, PCS were almost the same and the error could be attributed to human measurement error on statistical basis as it was 2.7%. Thta is dam near the same results with the test they reported.
Also I interviewed 37 people who had been shot or shot someone else to death. I knew the caliber and bbl length and ammo type (FMJ or JHP etc.) as well as hit placement. Not big sample space true, not even statistically enough to make a call in a hard science way of speaking.But my gut cvounts for lot with me and my conclusion is the same as yours with some small qualifiers.
Incidentally, I interviewed four people shot point blank right between the eyes or in the forehead with .45 ACP from a distance of 3 to 5 feet, all with no ill affects. It did not even slow them down and two were unaware they had been hit. One jumped across the table at the guy who just shot him, took his 1911 and began pistol whipping him with it until some friends jumped on him to stop him from killing the shooter and his then going back to prison.
In all 4 cases the .45 ACP did not enter the brain case it spun around the outside of the skull, but dam I would think that alone would knock somebody unconscious at least. Yes any pisotlis a rather light wepon for an animal as large as a human being.
But if the bullet, regardless of caliber enters the brain case (penetrates the skull) then it seems you get an immediate kill or collapse. If the bullet hits the left chamber of the heart, then it’s the same story.
Anywhere else though, the surgeon who was the chief of trump surgery in the Newark NJ “gun and knife club’ as he referred to it, and who had operated on hundreds of gunshot victims, told me that the bullet entering the ‘brain case’ or the ‘left ventricle’ or ‘severing the spinal cord’ were the only medical reasons why a bullet would stop a person such that the person shot was prevented from then drawing and firing back with his own weapon.
He also said he had seen high caliber pistol bullets spin around the skull and not enter the brain case and thus not stop the person shot.
However, I do have pretty decent reason to believe though that the .357 Magnum in a 158 grain JHP (fired from 4 or 6 inch bbl) is the best we can do in stopping power from a handgun. The .41 and .44 Magnum actually have less stopping power as they are simply ‘overpowered’ for most sized people. I estimate a person would have to be maybe 6 ft tall and weight over 325 lbs for the .41 or .44 magnum to be a better stopper than a .357 magnum.
Actually, the .45 ACP at 850 fps and 230 grains is not even in the running here with any of these three calibers though. Further a .45 ACP JHP never expanded to form a very decent TSC for us at 850 fps either. But as you suggest so clearly I would not feel under armed with my 1911 (which I liberated from the government 39 years ago).
But also, I would rather have the shotgun or rifle too.
Yet I saw police video (far to graphic to air too) of a man shot repeatedly by 6 officers from behind their police cars with 12 gauge buck and not go down right away at all. And when he did fall down, and the police came from behind their cars, he amazingly got back up, the police showing good sense ran back behind their cars and began firing again.
The man was armed and had picked his pistol up again too! In the last scene the man shoot was being taken away and still yelling profanities at the police! He did die though before getting to the hospital were they discovered he was full of PCP.
Even a 22LR if it goes into the brain case will do the job. I had to decide that a lot of people being ‘stopped immediately’ by being shot with a handgun was more psychological than physiological.
I have to throw up my B.S. flag here, and I have the laws of physics on my side.
Originally Posted by Peyton
There is no possible way someone can be hit in the head by an object with ~ 400 ft-lbs of kinetic energy and not realize that it happened.
Ever seen someone hit in the head with a baseball traveling at speeds over 100 mph? I have, and I've seen it happen three different times. (One hit the third base coach in the temple, one hit a pitcher directly in the forehead, and the last one hit an on deck batter in the eye. Hell, I took one on the inside of my left shin three years ago, and I still have the freaking bruise, and it still hurts...)
Before I tell you what happened to each of these people, I must tell you how these two scenarios are relevant. Obviously, getting hit with a baseball is an example of blunt force trauma, and gunshots are considered penetrating or perforating trauma depending on whether the bullet exited the body or not. In the situation you've described, the .45 ACP bullet did not penetrate the skull and can therefore can be considered an example of blunt force trauma.
Now, the kinetic energy of a baseball traveling at 100 mph is 109 ft-lbs KE. The kinetic energy of a 230gr Speer Gold Dot .45 ACP traveling at 890 fps is 400 ft-lbs KE. Thanks to Newton we know that any action has an equal an opposite reaction.
So, what happened to the three people I mentioned above who were hit by baseballs traveling somewhere around 100 mph?
The third base coach was instantly knocked unconscious and remained so for approximately 15 minutes. The pitcher was dropped like a sack of potatoes and was out cold. I'm not sure how long he was out. The on deck batter was incredibly lucky that the ball didn't strike two inches lower or he would have shattered his cheekbone and a bunch of other bones of which I cannot name. However, he was also instantly dropped, but he was not concussed.
Remember that all of these people were struck by baseballs with KE from 109 ft-lbs to 150 ft-lbs, and all were instantly dropped.
You expect me to believe that these men were struck in the forehead by .45 ACP rounds with KE of ~ 400 ft-lbs and suffered "no ill effects?" (Remember, all actions have an equal and opposite reaction).
AZ Hawk - If the bullet gets deflected around the (hard, curved, specifically designed to protect the brain) skull, then, by definition, most of the momentum of the bullet is NOT absorbed by the skull. Note this quote - "In all 4 cases the .45 ACP did not enter the brain case it spun around the outside of the skull."
Peyton - First, welcome. Second - what leads you to the conclusion that the .357 Mag with 158 gr JHPs out of a 4-6" barrel is the best bet? Just curious. Thanks.
Evan has his own discussion forum, could ask him there; StoppingPower.net Forums
Originally Posted by AZ Hawk