Ammo shortages don't make sense in a free market economy,

This is a discussion on Ammo shortages don't make sense in a free market economy, within the Defensive Ammunition & Ballistics forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by Hopyard Keep in mind commodity shortages and prices. Having had the plumbing ripped out of property I own so the kiddos could ...

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Thread: Ammo shortages don't make sense in a free market economy,

  1. #31
    Senior Member Array Jmac00's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hopyard View Post
    Keep in mind commodity shortages and prices. Having had the plumbing ripped out of property I own so the kiddos could get a bucks for the copper, I know that commodity shortages (and black market) exist.

    Moreover, I am old enough to remember when price increases in sugar a flour
    made caused huge increases in things like cola and bread, even though the raw ingredient cost changes were a fraction of the retail price.

    It was gouging then, and there is gouging now, and there is a way to stop it.

    I do considerably less shooting than in the past. If everyone cut back a little and stocked a little less, things might get back into balance.

    While we as individuals no doubt consider our guns and ammo as necessities of life, most don't, and so I have no problem with letting market forces sort this one out. In the meantime, I "ain't" paying 8 bucks again for 100 rnds of min-mags, or 25 bucks for a box of 380. I have enough on hand for reasonable SD needs; and that it--- I won't do what Retsupt does, for example, and stockpile.

    In fact, I think buying now is doing exactly what too many home buyers and stock buyers did; buying into a bubble and perpetuating the bubble.

    Tulips anyone?
    excellent observation, except some of us are competition shooters and cutting back on shooting degrades my all ready poor scores even components are getting scarce, but i think I have enough to get me through the summer if I keep the shooting down to 60 to 70 rounds per week~~~~I hope
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  3. #32
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jmac00 View Post
    If the firearms manufacturers are not investing and with the NObama administration saying they want all kinds of new restrictions (whether credible or not, or simply rumor) NO MANUFACTURER is going to invest in infrastructure if the government even HINTS that they maybe out of business in 2 to 4 years.

    Purely simple economics. Infrastructure cost a LOT OF CAPITAL and the ROI (return on investment) is 5 to 7 years, why would you buy new equipment, I don't blame ammo and firearm manufacturers for not increasing production beyond what they are doing right now. There is simply no incentive to do so.
    Right, and I get that for guns and magazines. I don't get that for ammo. And most manufacturers have some headroom for increasing output without capital outlay -- open more lines, add more shifts, weekends, etc. Maybe they're all doing this already?

  4. #33
    Senior Member Array Jmac00's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgg9 View Post
    Right, and I get that for guns and magazines. I don't get that for ammo. And most manufacturers have some headroom for increasing output without capital outlay -- open more lines, add more shifts, weekends, etc. Maybe they're all doing this already?


    I believe most manufactures are at capacity, I think right now, demand is overwhelming production. it's that simple.

    I also think the only Ammo guys making any money, are they guys making .223cal and primers. Military ammo is probably running 24/7.

    especially if you realize the bullet to kill ratio is something like 10,000:1 (10,000 rounds fired for every one kill, at least thats the last stats I heard on that) so the military ammo is cranking.

    But I could be wrong about that, I'm just guessing on that
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  5. #34
    VIP Member Array edr9x23super's Avatar
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    I was driving back from Rockport, TX a couple of weeks ago, and fiddling with the AM radio dial, I came across of all things a show called "gun talk" with Tom Gresham, which helped pass the time. During the show, Tom had a call in from Federal ammunition; the guy on the other end was a production supervisor there and basically said that the shortages were being caused by the war and the president we just elected. He also went on to say that all of the manufacturers were at capacity and the only solution to this was to either add more capacity or quit buying ammo. Now adding capacity would mean purchasing and staging up tooling to produce more ammunition, an expensive proposition that is not likely to happen.

    And I seriously doubt any of us are going to stoop buying or shooting either. But I think all of this is a good thing, because now that the threat of loosing these precious freedoms is real, more people that were on the fence are suddenly joining us to get their guns and get them now. In fact, the last thing I heard Glenn Beck say as I type this, was that tghe government is coming ater our guns, and to get them now!

    I say that is well placed advice. The more money the gun industry has at its disposal, the better able we are to fight the Antis......
    "Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect everyone who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are inevitably ruined". - Patrick Henry

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    VIP Member Array mcp1810's Avatar
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    I understand Black Hills is in the process of expanding production with a larger facility, but for other companies it probably does not make sense. As I understand it Black Hills started off not so long ago as a small family operation and has grown steadily over the last several years. They also have contracts to supply the military with some specialized (sniper) ammunition. I don't know the length of the contract, but that means they have guaranteed income from Uncle Sam they can use to finance that expansion. With the credit situation what it is today and an administration that is perceived as anti gun, what bank is going to loan a couple million dollars to an ammo manufacturer?

    Also, if you think about the big guys like Remington and Winchester, their production capacity has pretty much met demand for the last hundred years. This hyper demand is not going to go on forever. Sooner or later people will figure out that they have enough. They might even start emptying their ammo lockers. If that happens, you not only have reverted to "normal" demand, but now there will be an ammo glut because of people selling off their surplus.
    If you were on the board of directors of one of these companies how would you convince your stockholders that now is a good time to invest millions of dollars ( that you could be paying them in dividends) into building and equipping a new plant?
    Infowars- Proving David Hannum right on a daily basis

  7. #36
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edr9x23super View Post
    And I seriously doubt any of us are going to stoop buying or shooting either.
    No, but a LOT of people are discovering the practice virtues of the .22LR recently.

  8. #37
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcp1810 View Post
    This hyper demand is not going to go on forever. Sooner or later people will figure out that they have enough. They might even start emptying their ammo lockers. If that happens, you not only have reverted to "normal" demand, but now there will be an ammo glut because of people selling off their surplus.
    In my neck of the woods, there is no sign at all of reduction of buyer demand. Quite the opposite. In fact, we've already gone through that phase of people selling their private caches.

    6 months ago, you saw ads of people selling cases of ammo.

    3 months ago, you didn't see cases anymore, but you saw ads for 200 rds of this, 300 rds of that.

    1 month ago, you see people scraping the bottom of the gun safe, selling 2 boxes of this, 3 boxes of that.

    Then all that went dry: no unsold ammo in private hands; no decent amount of ammo at the retailers; little in gun shows. And now I'm seeing something I never saw before: not only are there few if any "WTS ammo" ads, I'm actually seeing more and more "WTB ammo" ads. I also see WTB ads for commonplace guns like ARs. When someone finds a case or two of ammo at a Walmart, threads open up in gun boards and people rush there to buy it up.

    For now, and for the forseeable future, supply is stripped bare across the board.

  9. #38
    VIP Member Array mcp1810's Avatar
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    Well does anyone have a definition of "enough"? Is there a point where you will stop buying?
    Infowars- Proving David Hannum right on a daily basis

  10. #39
    Senior Member Array Jmac00's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcp1810 View Post
    Well does anyone have a definition of "enough"? Is there a point where you will stop buying?
    yep, I have enough to get me through to September or October ( for practice and competition) and defense ammo is good for at least another year..........

    or until some nut job in Washington pulls the plug on the 2nd Amendment


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  11. #40
    Senior Member Array dgg9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcp1810 View Post
    Well does anyone have a definition of "enough"? Is there a point where you will stop buying?
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't get the impression the big buyers are the handful of people who already had big stockpiles. I would think most of them would be less likely to overpay, seeing as they don't need to buy now. For example, I have close to a lifetime supply of rifle ammo. Having many cases of milsurp .308 I got for $150/case, I have no desire at all to pad my stash with the $700+ cases out there today. And while I have nowhere near a lifetime's supply of pistol range ammo, I still have several years on tap, so my instinct now is to hunker down, shoot more conservatively and wait it out.

    I get the impression that the frantic buyers are: a) run of the mill shooters who buy a case when their current one runs out, and now are caught out in the cold, and -- intriguingly -- b) a lot of new shooters just getting into it, perhaps prompted by this election.

  12. #41
    VIP Member Array sgtD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgg9 View Post
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't get the impression the big buyers are the handful of people who already had big stockpiles. I would think most of them would be less likely to overpay, seeing as they don't need to buy now. For example, I have close to a lifetime supply of rifle ammo. And while I have nowhere near a lifetime's supply of pistol range ammo, I still have several years on tap, so my instinct now is to hunker down, shoot more conservatively and wait it out.

    .
    Same here. I think the panic buyers are those late to the game.

    I realistically have had enough ammo on hand for years to outlast anything short of a full scale zombie apocalypse. Hence, for the time being I shoot rifles once a month, burning up some old (I mean old like 1960s) ammo and then reloading the cases with new components. (20-40 rounds a month, just to keep the basic skills alive)

    As far as handgunning, I was doing the same, but components are now getting scarce. So if I want to go shooting now, I wait until I can pick up a box or two of new ammo or get more components, and then shoot my old stuff. (sort of a no net loss policy) If I can find neither, then I just don't go shooting that week. I have definately cut back on handgun shooting as of late, because I don't like my component count to get below being able to reload 500 rnds. So , I just wait and will keep doing so until the hysteria ends.

    Hopefully, the majority of current buyers will reach a threshold point where they too figure that they have enough on hand for a rainy day, and they will then cease buying at this pace, and we can all get back to normal.

    The way I built my "stockpile" was that when I go shooting, I used to buy twice what I'd shoot. If I planned to shoot a box of 50, I'd buy 2 boxes and tuck one away. Over time, I built up a nice nest egg. Then I just buy what I intended to shoot that day and rotate out the old stuff. I only ever bought in bulk twice that I can remember. I once bought a case of 9mm and once a case of 7.62x39. The rest I aquired through the slow and steady method. Now people fear that if they don't get it today, it won't be available tomorrow, so they are buying it up like a banker at a stimulis handout meeting. Can't say I blame them though. I would probably be doing the same if I didn't already have a bit set aside.
    When you've got 'em by the balls, their hearts & minds will follow. Semper Fi.

  13. #42
    EW3
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    This ammo shortage is getting a little scary.

    I went to the range today; the first visit in about a month. The range is an indoor type within a gun shop. (The one in PA Lima used to work at).

    They normally have range ammo available to purchase if you want to rent a gun or just didn't bring your own, and always had plenty of it.

    Today, there was:

    0 boxes of .380
    0 boxes of .38
    0 boxes of .45
    3 boxes of 9mm
    5 boxes of .40


    Holy smokes!
    "Naked and Starving as They are We Cannot Enough Admire the Incomparable Patience and Fidelity of the Soldiery" George Washington, Valley Forge, 1777.

  14. #43
    VIP Member Array sgtD's Avatar
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    Here is an article in which the manufacturers claim they are running 24/7 and still can't keep up with demand.

    Demand for ammo is causing supply shortages - ESPN
    When you've got 'em by the balls, their hearts & minds will follow. Semper Fi.

  15. #44
    Senior Member Array Jmac00's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgtD View Post
    Here is an article in which the manufacturers claim they are running 24/7 and still can't keep up with demand.

    Demand for ammo is causing supply shortages - ESPN

    that's interesting! For me it's just frustrating to see people buying up ammo that I KNOW is going to sit in a closet or on a shelf for the next 5 years. I shoot every week, so for me I have to keep going to my supply house and checking for primers and projectiles? If I just call and they do have what I need, they won't put it on hold. They sell it as fast as they can get it

    But I understand the fear, even if it is misguided. I say that because from what I have seen and heard if the government does "encode" ammo, we will have a time limit in which to either use up what we have or it will be confiscated.

    Now! how the government is going to run around the country and confiscate ammo, I got no clue. Otherwise the government is going to turn millions of Americans into criminals
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  16. #45
    VIP Member Array edr9x23super's Avatar
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    +1 on the .22LR for practice ammo. I have been buying a brick of it every paycheck just to have it laying around. Just the other day I bought 4 100 packs of CCI mini-mag and 6 boxes of stingers......
    "Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect everyone who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are inevitably ruined". - Patrick Henry

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