Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy - Page 2

Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy

This is a discussion on Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy within the Defensive Ammunition & Ballistics forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Unfortuntely the world is not the same anymore. There are a lot of good people out there, and they're being victimized all the time. Everyday ...

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Thread: Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy

  1. #16
    Member Array ventri's Avatar
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    I am partially being facetious, but at some point you have to decide that the world y

    Unfortuntely the world is not the same anymore. There are a lot of good people out there, and they're being victimized all the time. Everyday we move further and further from the constitution and any morals. There is no leadership in Washington, only corrupt pols with their own agendas. One day it will come to a head. You can be ready for it, or you can be mowed down. People don't ask what can they do for their country anymore, now it's just me me me. Can't go on forever like that.


  2. #17
    VIP Member Array sgtD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Rod View Post
    I'm ahead of you buying food and water at discount prices. Yes....more food and water than I need just so all those that are currently buying up the ammo won't get it! Nothing personal.
    Me too. I am fortunate enough to pretty much be unaffected by the ammo shortage madness thus far, other than the fact that I can't get any primers and can't get a set of reloading dies I want. I have not really bought much ammo at all in the past months, especially compared to my usual buying habits of a box or two every week, just for good measure.

    I am however doing as you are, and have been doing so for about the past 1 1/2 years. Slowly setting aside durable food items, like canned goods, rice, dried beans, and water. Just in case. It saves money if nothing else. I have 48 cent cans of corn that I bought last year that are now 56 to 75 cents. As for the rice, I was able to use what I had on hand last year during the rice rationing panic, and didn't need to pay $20 for the same 25lb bag of rice I had bought two months earlier for just over $8. What I don't use, I rotate out by donating it to charity when it gets close to expiration. It doesn't cost much to do that. I have about 30lbs of rice that is close to 1 yr old, and will be going to the homeless shelter soon, and I will replace it now that the prices are back down. Everything else I buy has a long enough shelf life that I can use it up and replace it before it gets old, but the nutritional value of rice begins to decrease after it's a year old, or so I have read.

    I figure, if there is a shortage of those items in the future, I can sit out that panic just like I'm doing with the ammo panic. That's also why I keep kerosene, gas, and propane on hand BEFORE THE STORM COMES. As many of you on here know, I am from Florida and have seen firsthand the utter chaos that comes before and after major events. Last year's ice storm up here was the same scene as Florida in a hurricanne situation. The shelves wer emptied fast and stayed that way for days. I would rather be an observer to these things rather than being a participant, therefore I will continue to stay well stocked if possible.

    Full disclosure: I did buy two boxes of Federal 30-06 ammo this week for my new (used) rifle. But there is plenty of that around here and my choice to buy the rifle and ammo for it had nothing to do with any of this stuff. I just came across a good deal and was completing my hunting rifle battery.

    To each his own, I just hope this all settles down soon, and that the profitering that is going on stops when it does. I was in the gun shop today and a box of Remington 158gr lswchp was priced at $32. I almost fainted. I bought that same stuff last year for $15 at Cabelas, which is not known for their low prices. If anything, I am annoyed and wish that everyone would just hurry up and get stocked up with what they want so things will get back to normal.
    When you've got 'em by the balls, their hearts & minds will follow. Semper Fi.

  3. #18
    VIP Member Array AllAmerican's Avatar
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    Yeah, the shelves will be full of cheap ammo while everyone is paying for rice and beans if they can even get it.

    I love it! Ive been stocking up myself. I think my 45 gal tote is full of beans and rice right now. Im gonna transfer them into buckets with Gamma lids so the stuff will keep forever.
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  4. #19
    Senior Member Array CR2008's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ventri View Post
    Unfortuntely the world is not the same anymore. There are a lot of good people out there, and they're being victimized all the time. Everyday we move further and further from the constitution and any morals. There is no leadership in Washington, only corrupt pols with their own agendas. One day it will come to a head. You can be ready for it, or you can be mowed down. People don't ask what can they do for their country anymore, now it's just me me me. Can't go on forever like that.
    The lest someone can do is instead of taking the ENTIRE SHELF of ammo, is to leave just a LITTLE... just a LITTLE... that's not asking much now is it?

    I could be doing the same, and it's a free country so other people could do that if they wish, but I don't think it's the right thing to do IMHO... if someone says "be prepared" to others and tells others to get armed etc yet does not leave even a single 9mm box at walmart for the poor sap that just purchased a handgun yesterday, what kina thing is that now?
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  5. #20
    Senior Member Array TucAzRider's Avatar
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    Great thinking,.. You stick to that method,.. .

    Now for me,. I went to Wally world last week and they had 5 boxes,. I bought them.. I went to wally world last Saturday and they had 10 boxes,. I bought them.. I went there this morning and they had 8 boxes,... I bought them.. MANY times I've gone there and there completely out, so ya,. All in all it is like I'm getting a box here and a box there, most stops I walk out empty handed, and when I hit gold, I get all I can.. :-) Bear in mind, this is just handgun ammo,.. Not including the long gun stuff I buy too,.

  6. #21
    Distinguished Member Array Squawker's Avatar
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    I don't buy ammunition due to the shortage. I buy to reach levels that I have planned for SHTF scenarios. I buy in case lots, with a goal of 5000 rounds per caliber. I'm getting close in .223, but I still have a way to go in 9mm, and 45ACP. Ive recently added a Socom II in .308, and also an AK 47 in 7.62 X 39. I've started buying those calibers as well, but I've had to put ammo on hold since I've been laid off. I'll resume as soon as I'm working again.

  7. #22
    Senior Member Array Frogbones's Avatar
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    Wally, now only lets me buy 2 boxes...that's it. Only two boxes of ammo can be purchased at a time @ all the Wally's around my parts WWB 29.97 for the 100 count and 17.97 for 50 count.

    So I'm either limited where the price is cheapest....or pay 39.97 of LAWMAN 230g .45acp box of 50 from CTD. Looks like I need a larger can of vasoline cause my hiney hole is getting chaffed....again.... I was healed from the gas prices.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomAdv View Post
    Here is my story . . .
    Yesterday, I was “lucky” enough to find some 9mm ammo in stock and it occurred to me that the current shortage is really nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by irrational fear. The good news is that each and every one of us has the ability to stop this problem dead in its tracks, but only if we work together.

    The store where I purchased my ammunition had four boxes in stock. I only needed two boxes, but I almost bought all four. Why? Simply because I was momentarily being drawn into the mass panic that has caused the shortage in the first place. One year ago, people were buying the amount of ammunition that they needed. Now people are snatching up every available box for no other rational reason other than fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear of the changing legal landscape. Fear of [Fill in the Blank]. Fear is healthy when it is rational and drives productive decisions and ultimately makes you better off. Fear is irrational when we are reacting to events that we have no evidence of and it causes us to act in a way that makes every stakeholder worse off.

    I understand that there is more uncertainty in a gun owner’s future based on the results of the recent presidential election, but I do not intend this thread to be a political debate. If we simply deal with the facts and not the fear of the unknown, we are all in the exact same legal position that we were in one year ago. When people stockpile ammunition, it leaves me to wonder what their end game is. If we imagine an absolute worst case scenario, these small stockpiles of ammo will run out quickly, rendering them nearly worthless.

    So here is my solution. I am choosing only to buy the ammunition that I have a current NEED for and leave the rest on the shelf for other responsible gun owners to make the same decision. If every single person adopted this same philosophy, there would be plenty of ammunition to go around. Choose to stop the insanity and maybe we can all have a little fun. Think about it.
    I'm with you, but I think we're alone.

  9. #24
    New Member Array battlebug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Squawker View Post
    I don't buy ammunition due to the shortage. I buy to reach levels that I have planned for SHTF scenarios. I buy in case lots, with a goal of 5000 rounds per caliber. I'm getting close in .223, but I still have a way to go in 9mm, and 45ACP. Ive recently added a Socom II in .308, and also an AK 47 in 7.62 X 39. I've started buying those calibers as well, but I've had to put ammo on hold since I've been laid off. I'll resume as soon as I'm working again.
    Congrats on your "preparation". That's a lot of zombies. You plan on shootin' all of 'em yourself? sheesh...

  10. #25
    Senior Member Array Tom357's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomAdv View Post
    ...it occurred to me that the current shortage is really nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by irrational fear. The good news is that each and every one of us has the ability to stop this problem dead in its tracks, but only if we work together...One year ago, people were buying the amount of ammunition that they needed. Now people are snatching up every available box for no other rational reason other than fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear of the changing legal landscape. Fear of [Fill in the Blank]. Fear is healthy when it is rational and drives productive decisions and ultimately makes you better off. Fear is irrational when we are reacting to events we have no evidence of and it causes us to act in a way that makes every stakeholder worse off...If we simply deal with the facts and not the fear of the unknown, we are all in the exact same legal position that we were in one year ago. When people stockpile ammunition, it leaves me to wonder what their end game is. If we imagine an absolute worst case scenario, these small stockpiles of ammo will run out quickly, rendering them nearly worthless...Choose to stop the insanity and maybe we can all have a little fun.
    I apologize in advance for the length of this reply, but I've been reading, on this and other forums, post after post by people asking everyone else to stop buying so much so that person can buy some, too, and this time, I felt the need to reply. I've been stuck in California for six months on a contract that was only supposed to last six to eight weeks. I've got a few more weeks, yet, before I'll be able to go home. It has been very frustrating to read about increasingly short supplies, knowing that I can't stock up, here, and can't order on-line because there is no one I would rely on to receive it at home, if I were to have orders shipped. But that certainly doesn't mean everyone else should buy less until I get home! It just means I had the unfortunate circumstance of not being able to stock up in advance of coming out here. My problem. No one else's.

    FreedomAdv, I'm sorry, but for me, this isn't about "fun". My concern is the possible further erosion of my right to keep and bear arms, and the availability of ammunition for training and self-defense. I don't begrudge anyone taking the opportunities to stock up with however much they want or need. I don't resent people buying up weapons and ammo as speculative investments. Investment in scarce resources with the hope of making a profit is a hallmark of our free market system. In fact, the idea of getting "everybody" to forego opportunities to stock up in order to equitably distribute what remains to those who haven't bought previously, is only a few steps from the concept of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need". I, for one, don't want to go there.

    You must be young, since your view on this topic is limited to the past year, you see and offer a simplistic, idealistic solution to a very complex problem, and you dismiss the valid concerns of millions of Americans as "irrational fear" - concerns that are grounded in solid evidence and so, by your own definition, not irrational.

    The current shortage got its start several years ago, and slowly grew into what it is, now. Reloaders were concerned about diminishing stocks of ammunition components, particularly primers, by mid-2007, which means stockpiles had been decreasing before that. There were also scattered reports, since the beginning of the last presidential primary campaigns and before (so, over two years ago), of difficulty finding common ammunition from generally reliable vendors. The reasons are many and varied, some political, some socioeconomic, some logistical, some operational, some military, and some as individual as they are varied. People were stocking up.

    A year ago, people were already stockpiling ammo and components, and stocks in some popular calibers were already in unusually high demand. In fact, the current shortage really started to pick up steam during the primary campaigns, once people had a chance to assess the field of would-be candidates and to sample the political winds. People were already disenchanted with the previous administration, not particularly impressed with the traditionally pro-gun replacements, and to anyone who was paying attention, it was painfully clear that the anti-gun crowd was in the ascendancy. AR stockpiles started to shrink as people started to consider reinstatement of the AWB as more than a theoretical possibility. People were stocking up.

    A year ago, we didn't have the Heller decision, yet, and the future of individual gun rights in this country wasn't certain. The slim and narrowly-defined Heller decision left both sides claiming strategic victories, and we were left with a cloudy crystal ball for predicting how Heller would or would not be applied in the future. The Heller decision left us relieved on one hand, and unsettled on the other, and the reaction of some was to go out and buy. People were stocking up.

    A year ago, those of us in the middle classes were already feeling the pinch and uncertainty of that elephant of a recession that no one in power wanted to admit was in the room. As our President so aptly and graciously put it during his campaign, in times of economic and social uncertainty, those of us not in the President's elite company cling to our guns and our faith. People were stocking up, in the face of socioeconomic uncertainty, and sociopolitical realities.
    Fear is irrational when we are reacting to events we have no evidence of...
    No evidence....let's see
    - outrageous expansions of the original AWB proposed by the usual suspects in both the House and the Senate;
    - a President who campaigned, in part, on reinstituting and making permanent an expansion of the original AWB, who supports weapons bans for the citizens of Illinois, who supports D.C.'s draconian handgun ban and gun control laws that made it illegal to carry within one's own home as "reasonable";
    - a Vice President who was a principal author of the original AWB;
    - a Chief of Staff vocally supportive of strong gun control laws, also of the Illinois political mindset;
    - State being run by a vocal supporter of the original AWB and gun control, the UN push to confiscate small arms, and other treaties that infringe on our rights to keep and bear arms;
    - Justice being run by someone with a long track record of support for strong gun control and an expressed desire to see an expansion of the original AWB made permanent;
    - a House dominated and led by Representatives whose expressed goal is to completely disarm "Mr. and Mrs. America", who have co-signed previous attempts to reinstate expanded forms of the AWB, who repeatedly make contradictory public statements about gun control that only (and I think purposefully) feed the anxiety, and who now have the numbers to pass legislation with 0% participation/consent of the opposition;
    - a Senate only one or two seats shy of being able to break a fillibuster, led by proponents of an expanded AWB, who have already threatened to force legislation through without the consent of nearly half the Senate;
    - and a Heller decision that leaves the door open to "reasonable" restrictions without defining the term "reasonable".

    There are other reasons, but these should suffice. These aren't vapor or illusory shadows. These are solid reasons that people are concerned about their natural right to self-defense, their right to keep and bear arms, their fundamental freedoms, and the future availability of guns, ammo and reloading components.

    Add to this governnment and military orders for ammunition and components, an economic crisis that has unstable people killing innocents in their despair, and an unprecedented number of people who have never owned guns buying what they can get out of concerns about their personal safety, and it becomes clear that hoarding is only part of this complex problem - a real part, but only part.

    When do you start preparing for a storm? As soon as you perceive the threat, not after it arrives. Some perceived these threats years ago, and began preparing, then. Most began preparing more recently. As with any storm, there will always be those who, for many reasons, wait until the last second to prepare, and then panic. That, too, is happening. When a hurricane is approaching, the actual location of landfall cannot be predicted until the last minute; but, that doesn't and shouldn't prevent people from preparing for the storm ahead of time, all the while hoping their preparations will have been unnecessary. In the case of a severe storm, sometimes it is necessary to evacuate in advance of the storm, so one's preparations need to be complete before the storm arrives, not after it is overhead.
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  11. #26
    VIP Member Array Pikachu711's Avatar
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    I firmly believe that we are creating our own "artificial" ammunition shortage. I'll repost my observation that I posted on another thread.

    This is a "self fulfilling prophecy." The more ammo we buy, the less ammo there is available. The less ammo there is available, the more ammo we buy." I truly believe we are creating our own artificial ammunition shortage.

    I've stopped looking for ammunition until things start getting better. I'm down to my last 800 rounds of range ammo. I now go to the range once a month. I can easily use 100 plus rounds without any difficultly at all.

    I'll keep looking for 9mm ammo, but I'll be buying a little at a time. It's not buy choice either. The local WM's are limiting the amount of ammo you can buy any given day.

    What else do you expect under the circumstances?
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  12. #27
    Senior Member Array LeCalsey's Avatar
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    This ammo shortage is a DIRECT result of the political climate. When it becomes hostile toward gun owners like it seems to be heading, people will stock-up. It is human nature just like a hurricane event.

    I keep sufficient quantities of ammo for ALL my guns. I live in Florida and have evacuated once in the 15 years I have lived here. It's not fun but I won't hesitate to do it again. Nothing bad happened while on the road with all my valuables in our family jeep for the world to see but I was prepared with a .357 under the seat and a shotgun behind me. I do stock-up on ammo and gasoline for just such an occasion. Try to but gas or ammo with a named storm heading toward your residence. I own a RV stocked with dry-goods so we can getout of dodge at a moment notice. Am I paranoid for being prepared? I think not.

    You are paranoid UNTIL the SHTF
    You are prepared ONCE the SHTF
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  13. #28
    Senior Member Array Tom357's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pikachu711 View Post
    ...This is a "self fulfilling prophecy." The more ammo we buy, the less ammo there is available. The less ammo there is available, the more ammo we buy." I truly believe we are creating our own artificial ammunition shortage....
    Are you sure it is artificial, though? I see a number of legitimate sources of demand, besides the element of hoarding, if the industry is to be believed and this isn't all just an excuse for election-cycle profiteering. The across-the-board nature of the shortage, and anecdotal evidence from the forums suggests that hoarding is a real factor, but the industry is also telling us that demand from first-time gun buyers is at unprecedented levels, and that demand has been sustained at these levels from much earlier in, and for longer than in previous election cycles. All these new entrants to the market need ammo, too, and that is new demand over and above existing demand and normal growth.

    I'm having to wait, too, and wondering what I'll find, when I finally get back to Virginia. I spoke with my gun shop in the Richmond area, and they indicated the only thing they are having no luck getting is primers. I'm not sure I understand the explanations of the primer shortage, or the statements that they won't be able to fulfill backorders for 12-18 months, even operating around-the-clock. I can't imagine that manufacturers could mismanage their production lines as thoroughly as the explanations suggest. It's also hard to imagine that the ammo/powder/primer manufacturers didn't foresee an election-cycle run-up in sales, either, since it always happens. I'd hate to think that the "artificial" nature of the shortage was due to manufacturer incompetence or deliberate supply-side profiteering.
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  14. #29
    Member Array GLOCK23FAN's Avatar
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    Good news...I called the Walmart that is on my Wife's way home from work. He said they had some .40 Blazer Brass ammo in stock. He said there is a 4 box limit per person per day. She stopped to pick up 4 boxes. He told her the reason they are limiting is because gun shop owners were coming in and buying them out. Don't know if that's true or not, but I'll be happy with the 4 boxes we just scored!
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  15. #30
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    I have 2500 rounds of 9mm and 1500 rounds of 223 and I'm still looking.
    Just today, I bought another 1,000 rounds of 9mm which is back ordered and will be available in July! I figure I might as well get in line so when it is available it will roll in.

    When I go to the range, I shoot about 250 rounds and so that is only 4 trips to the range. It is not so much that I am hording it as I will actually be shooting it to keep my skills up!

    Two boxes just wouldn't do for me!
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