Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy

Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy

This is a discussion on Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy within the Defensive Ammunition & Ballistics forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Here is my story . . . Yesterday, I was “lucky” enough to find some 9mm ammo in stock and it occurred to me that ...

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  1. #1
    New Member Array FreedomAdv's Avatar
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    Ammunition Shortage = Self Fulfilling Prophecy

    Here is my story . . .
    Yesterday, I was “lucky” enough to find some 9mm ammo in stock and it occurred to me that the current shortage is really nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by irrational fear. The good news is that each and every one of us has the ability to stop this problem dead in its tracks, but only if we work together.

    The store where I purchased my ammunition had four boxes in stock. I only needed two boxes, but I almost bought all four. Why? Simply because I was momentarily being drawn into the mass panic that has caused the shortage in the first place. One year ago, people were buying the amount of ammunition that they needed. Now people are snatching up every available box for no other rational reason other than fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear of the changing legal landscape. Fear of [Fill in the Blank]. Fear is healthy when it is rational and drives productive decisions and ultimately makes you better off. Fear is irrational when we are reacting to events that we have no evidence of and it causes us to act in a way that makes every stakeholder worse off.

    I understand that there is more uncertainty in a gun owner’s future based on the results of the recent presidential election, but I do not intend this thread to be a political debate. If we simply deal with the facts and not the fear of the unknown, we are all in the exact same legal position that we were in one year ago. When people stockpile ammunition, it leaves me to wonder what their end game is. If we imagine an absolute worst case scenario, these small stockpiles of ammo will run out quickly, rendering them nearly worthless.

    So here is my solution. I am choosing only to buy the ammunition that I have a current NEED for and leave the rest on the shelf for other responsible gun owners to make the same decision. If every single person adopted this same philosophy, there would be plenty of ammunition to go around. Choose to stop the insanity and maybe we can all have a little fun. Think about it.


  2. #2
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    Welcome...

    from Central Florida!

    If you only needed two of the four boxes, you don't practice enough...OMOYMV

    ret

    Stay armed...you should have purchased all four boxes...stay safe!
    The last Blood Moon Tetrad for this millennium starts in April 2014 and ends in September 2015...according to NASA.

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    Distinguished Member Array JerryM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by retsupt99 View Post
    from Central Florida!

    If you only needed two of the four boxes, you don't practice enough...OMOYMV

    ret

    Stay armed...you should have purchased all four boxes...stay safe!
    Maybe, but my friend who teaches CHL classes has insurance which limits his class shooting to factory ammunition. Handloaded ammunition is not permitted.

    I handload, and all classes I have taken I have used handloads. With the restrictions on ammunition I bought some factory ammo today. I went to Walmart, and they had 8 boxes of 9mm Blaser brass, and I bought 3. They also had 4 boxes of .45 and I bought three. That should last me as I shoot handloads in all my practice, and want to make sure I don't fail to have the right ammunition when I take the next renewal.

    Regards,
    Jerry

  4. #4
    Member Array Reicher's Avatar
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    I shoot a lot, (almost every weekend and many calibers) and like to keep a par level. So when I was in Walmart the other day and saw 8 boxes of 100 of .45, I bought them all. Mainly because I will be shooting in competition next month, and I will need at least 300 rounds. But of course I will need to practice before the competition. If I wasn't shooting in the competition I would not have bought them all.

    Thanks
    "Manners are good when one may have to back up his actions with his life" Robert Heinlein"

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    Member Array KG4ZRC's Avatar
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    I don't 'need' the ammo any more than I 'needed' the gun...

    I buy ammo when I can afford it. If I can afford a single box, so be it. If I can afford 10 boxes, so be it. Some of it may not be shot right away, but I will have it for some time down the road...

  6. #6
    VIP Member Array miklcolt45's Avatar
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    ...it occurred to me that the current shortage is really nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by irrational fear.
    Read The Gift of Fear, by Gavin DeBecker. He makes it clear that fear is a gift, based on its ability to protect us from harm, some of which we are able to perceive by rational means, some of which we 'sense.'

    One year ago, people were buying the amount of ammunition that they needed. Now people are snatching up every available box for no other rational reason other than fear. Fear of the unknown. Fear of the changing legal landscape. Fear of [Fill in the Blank]. Fear is healthy when it is rational and drives productive decisions and ultimately makes you better off. Fear is irrational when we are reacting to events that we have no evidence of and it causes us to act in a way that makes every stakeholder worse off.
    Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation. Best I can tell, those who are prepared are the paranoid people whose fears came to pass. The paranoid are those whose fears have NOT come to pass, either because they were wrong or their timing is off and the fears have not come true YET.

    I understand that there is more uncertainty in a gun owner’s future based on the results of the recent presidential election, but I do not intend this thread to be a political debate. If we simply deal with the facts and not the fear of the unknown, we are all in the exact same legal position that we were in one year ago. When people stockpile ammunition, it leaves me to wonder what their end game is. If we imagine an absolute worst case scenario, these small stockpiles of ammo will run out quickly, rendering them nearly worthless.
    Fact: Current President and Administration have a long, consistent track record of wanting to disarm all of those who aren't among the elite, smart group-them.

    Fact: There are many groups out there who would love to stop the acquisition, possession and use of all firearms by anyone other than the military or LE. and are currently searching for any way to do just that. Frontal assaults have not worked. Now, they are seeking back ways in to achieve their desires (microstamping, 'green' ammo, higher prices, etc.).

    Fact: The world is a dangerous place. Not just the BG who may want your billfold or your Buick. Some LE will take your weapon when the SHTF (remember Katrina). Some terrorist out there is more than glad to attack the U.S., likely to be in a way that will be different from 9/11 and may well involve more of us. Russia and China could well have the ability to shut down our power grid. How long will our civilization remain civilized when food, water, fuel are no longer available and the rule of law is enforced by whoever has the guns?

    Fact: Our government, and our population are woefully unprepared should something catastrophic happen. EMP would shut down most of our power, disable most of our transportation, shut off the flow of food to many parts of the country. Nuclear attack. Massive fuel shortage leading to lack of food. All lead to similar scenarios.

    Fact: Some of the paranoid among us will survive. Some of the rational among us will die.

    I am NOT one who is stockpiling food and ammo YET. I am thinking long and hard about the situation we find ourselves in.

    I have been through mini-catastrophes and watched how people function. I have watched life-saving supplies fly off the shelves and leave little to nothing for those who chose not to prepare. I listened to people say, "We have been fine for all these years," and then have to pick up the pieces when that-which-could-not-happen happened. I have watched as people stood in lines for hours in the August and September sun waiting for potable water and ice. It took a couple of days in some cases and weeks in others to get back to something resembling 'normal.'

    Will it happen here? I don't know the answer to that.
    Could it happen here? The answer is, yes, it could. We are not invincible. Once upon a time, maybe our nation was invincible. Not now.
    Last edited by miklcolt45; April 14th, 2009 at 05:24 PM. Reason: didn't get my quotes right
    He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose. - Jim Elliott

    The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by miklcolt45 View Post
    Read The Gift of Fear, by Gavin DeBecker. He makes it clear that fear is a gift, based on its ability to protect us from harm, some of which we are able to perceive by rational means, some of which we 'sense.'



    Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation. Best I can tell, those who are prepared are the paranoid people whose fears came to pass. The paranoid are those whose fears have NOT come to pass, either because they were wrong or their timing is off and the fears have not come true YET.

    I understand that there is more uncertainty in a gun owner’s future based on the results of the recent presidential election, but I do not intend this thread to be a political debate. If we simply deal with the facts and not the fear of the unknown, we are all in the exact same legal position that we were in one year ago. When people stockpile ammunition, it leaves me to wonder what their end game is. If we imagine an absolute worst case scenario, these small stockpiles of ammo will run out quickly, rendering them nearly worthless.

    Fact: Current President and Administration have a long, consistent track record of wanting to disarm all of those who aren't among the elite, smart group-them.

    Fact: There are many groups out there who would love to stop the acquisition, possession and use of all firearms by anyone other than the military or LE. and are currently searching for any way to do just that. Frontal assaults have not worked. Now, they are seeking back ways in to achieve their desires (microstamping, 'green' ammo, higher prices, etc.).

    Fact: The world is a dangerous place. Not just the BG who may want your billfold or your Buick. Some LE will take your weapon when the SHTF (remember Katrina). Some terrorist out there is more than glad to attack the U.S., likely to be in a way that will be different from 9/11 and may well involve more of us. Russia and China could well have the ability to shut down our power grid. How long will our civilization remain civilized when food, water, fuel are no longer available and the rule of law is enforced by whoever has the guns?

    Fact: Our government, and our population are woefully unprepared should something catastrophic happen. EMP would shut down most of our power, disable most of our transportation, shut off the flow of food to many parts of the country. Nuclear attack. Massive fuel shortage leading to lack of food. All lead to similar scenarios.

    Fact: Some of the paranoid among us will survive. Some of the rational among us will die.

    I am NOT one who is stockpiling food and ammo YET. I am thinking long and hard about the situation we find ourselves in.

    I have been through mini-catastrophes and watched how people function. I have watched life-saving supplies fly off the shelves and leave little to nothing for those who chose not to prepare. I listened to people say, "We have been fine for all these years," and then have to pick up the pieces when that-which-could-not-happen happened. I have watched as people stood in lines for hours in the August and September sun waiting for potable water and ice. It took a couple of days in some cases and weeks in others to get back to something resembling 'normal.'

    Will it happen here? I don't know the answer to that.
    Could it happen here? The answer is, yes, it could. We are not invincible. Once upon a time, maybe our nation was invincible. Not now.
    Excellent post !!!
    I wish I had written it ... my thoughts exactly !!!
    The first rule of a gunfight: "Don't be there !"
    The second rule: "Bring enough gun"

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  8. #8
    VIP Member Array edr9x23super's Avatar
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    Here is my definition of the word FEAR:

    Our current President has so far done everything economically all the right -wing nutcases (us conservatives) thought he would do if elected. He has spent more money in less than 100 days than all of our previous presidents have in the history of our country combined.

    And he hasn't even gotten to the social engineering (gun control, abortion, illegal immigration) parts of his administration yet. If he follows current form, we are in for one rough ride, folks.....
    "Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect everyone who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are inevitably ruined". - Patrick Henry

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    New Member Array FreedomAdv's Avatar
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    "Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation."

    I would say that preparation is a reasonable and rational response to a perceived threat that is in proportion to the both the gravity and likelihood of that event occurring.

    Paranoia on the other hand is defined as a thought process characterized by excessive anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. I also think one hallmark of paranoia is when this irrational fear becomes your dominant thought and colors every aspect of your existence.

    Where do you draw the line? What type of world do you want to create for yourself in your mind?

    For Example
    Preparation: Wearing a seatbelt and using a hands free headset.
    Paranoia: Wearing a fire retardant NASCAR suit and a full face helmet in an armored car with a roll cage and two fire extinguishers to go to work.

    Preparation: Acquiring a CCW permit and carrying a concealed firearm for protection.
    Paranoia: Wearing a bullet proof vest and a riot shield with three backup firearms every time you go to the grocery store.

    I am partially being facetious, but at some point you have to decide that the world you live in is not just one horrible scary battlefield in which everyone is out to get you. There are some good people out there too. Oftentimes if we focus on our fear to the exclusion of much else, we actually increase the likelihood that those events will occur.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Array The Fish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomAdv View Post
    "Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation."

    I would say that preparation is a reasonable and rational response to a perceived threat that is in proportion to the both the gravity and likelihood of that event occurring.

    Paranoia on the other hand is defined as a thought process characterized by excessive anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. I also think one hallmark of paranoia is when this irrational fear becomes your dominant thought and colors every aspect of your existence.

    Where do you draw the line? What type of world do you want to create for yourself in your mind?

    For Example
    Preparation: Wearing a seatbelt and using a hands free headset.
    Paranoia: Wearing a fire retardant NASCAR suit and a full face helmet in an armored car with a roll cage and two fire extinguishers to go to work.

    Preparation: Acquiring a CCW permit and carrying a concealed firearm for protection.
    Paranoia: Wearing a bullet proof vest and a riot shield with three backup firearms every time you go to the grocery store.

    I am partially being facetious, but at some point you have to decide that the world you live in is not just one horrible scary battlefield in which everyone is out to get you. There are some good people out there too.
    EXCELLENT EXPLANATION OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FEAR LEADING TO INTELLIGENT PREPARATION AND....PARANOIA.
    " Keep On Packin' On The Bimah"

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomAdv View Post
    "Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation."

    I would say that preparation is a reasonable and rational response to a perceived threat that is in proportion to the both the gravity and likelihood of that event occurring.

    Paranoia on the other hand is defined as a thought process characterized by excessive anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. I also think one hallmark of paranoia is when this irrational fear becomes your dominant thought and colors every aspect of your existence.

    Where do you draw the line? What type of world do you want to create for yourself in your mind?

    For Example
    Preparation: Wearing a seatbelt and using a hands free headset.
    Paranoia: Wearing a fire retardant NASCAR suit and a full face helmet in an armored car with a roll cage and two fire extinguishers to go to work.

    Preparation: Acquiring a CCW permit and carrying a concealed firearm for protection.
    Paranoia: Wearing a bullet proof vest and a riot shield with three backup firearms every time you go to the grocery store.

    I am partially being facetious, but at some point you have to decide that the world you live in is not just one horrible scary battlefield in which everyone is out to get you. There are some good people out there too.
    Preparation: Buying a couple thousand rounds of ammo for SD/HD use. Also allowing enough ammo stockpiles for taking classes...approx. 800-1200 rounds per class.
    A box or two isn't going to do...

    Paranoia: Having multiple "K" rounds of various calibers all stored in and around a 'stable' collection of both pistols and long guns.
    Wait a minute...I'm both prepared and paranoid!

    Please let it be understood that I respect each individual's right to buy weapons and ammo in as large or small a quanity as he/she decides upon.
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  12. #12
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    Spot on FeedomAdv

    Quote Originally Posted by FreedomAdv View Post
    "Delineate for me, please, the difference between paranoia and preparation."

    I would say that preparation is a reasonable and rational response to a perceived threat that is in proportion to the both the gravity and likelihood of that event occurring.

    Paranoia on the other hand is defined as a thought process characterized by excessive anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. I also think one hallmark of paranoia is when this irrational fear becomes your dominant thought and colors every aspect of your existence.

    Where do you draw the line? What type of world do you want to create for yourself in your mind?

    For Example
    Preparation: Wearing a seatbelt and using a hands free headset.
    Paranoia: Wearing a fire retardant NASCAR suit and a full face helmet in an armored car with a roll cage and two fire extinguishers to go to work.

    Preparation: Acquiring a CCW permit and carrying a concealed firearm for protection.
    Paranoia: Wearing a bullet proof vest and a riot shield with three backup firearms every time you go to the grocery store.

    I am partially being facetious, but at some point you have to decide that the world you live in is not just one horrible scary battlefield in which everyone is out to get you. There are some good people out there too. Oftentimes if we focus on our fear to the exclusion of much else, we actually increase the likelihood that those events will occur.
    Spot on.

  13. #13
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    FreedomAdv- agreed, and well said. I think some people take it to far, and the world does have good people too!
    funwitHK
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    Look....if people worked together for a common goal in this country, we wouldn't be in this sad state of affairs to start with. How many times have you heard about boycott gasoline day? Folks just don't care about anyone but themselves now. Sometimes I think some folks would rather take it and not need it rather than let you get it. Do I have a poor outlook? Sure...tell me why I shouldn't...(look around you). Personally, I'm leaving ammo on the shelves right now and letting everyone else have their share and more. Nothing is fair in this world, and once you get rid of the notion that things should be fair, you'll feel better and be healthier. If you're looking for teamwork, join the military. Don't feel bad when you go to buy all the boxes of ammo you see on the shelves even if you don't need it, because while you are spending all that money on ammo, I'm ahead of you buying food and water at discount prices. Yes....more food and water than I need just so all those that are currently buying up the ammo won't get it! Nothing personal.

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    LOL at the OP...

    Silly new guy. You should have bought all four boxes.

    Welcome to DC from SC. Enjoy!!!
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