This is a discussion on This is ridiculous!!!!!!! within the Defensive Ammunition & Ballistics forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by Tubby45 If they could they would. Read my post above. The supply lines are stressed all the way back to the beginning ...
I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods but my local Walmart (near Columbia SC) puts its ammo out at 7am when the clerk arrives to the sporting goods section for the day. I am now on a first name basis with her. I basically call every AM around 7:10 and ask what they got in the night before. 70% of the time they have either 9,45,40,22lr in from the last night. Not much usually, but a few boxes. I swing by around 7:20 AM if they have something I need and usually have no problem. They did recently impose a 6 item limit per person/per day.
This AM I called and they had 2 boxes of Remington 45 cal, a case of 9mm Blazer, and 1 box of 38 special. I bought both of the 45 cal boxes and 4 boxes of blazer. I have found that 7am works the best. If you wait till 9am all is gone.
I absolutely love the conspiracy guys.
So you really think the government secretly orchestrated this shortage involving the thousands of raw materials suppliers, shipping companies, ammunition manufacturers, and you seriously thing those that were behind and involved of all of this mess kept their mouth shut until the final plans were put into action? Millions of people keeping a secret? The government leaning on ammunition manufacturers. Absolutely ridiculous. As a licensed ammunition manufacturer, I must have missed the memo.
Remember there have been 3 million guns sold since the election. Did you ever stop and think some of those guns might need ammunition in the future so their owners are buying now? How much ammunition do you think each owner bought for the gun, maybe 500-1000rds or so? That's 3 trillion rounds of ammunition. The average year in America the manufacturers make 8 billion rounds. If your production capacity is 8 billion per year and demand is 3 trillion in 6 months, you do the math.
07/02 FFL/SOT since 2006
I was fortunate enough the other day to actually hit my local Wal-Mart when they actually had .45ACP in stock. I could only afford 2 boxes of 100 rounds each at the time (may swing by tomorrow and pick up 1-2 more, if it's still there).
But after about a month and a half of hitting up the local Academy sports store, and wally world, and always walking away with -nothing- when the friendly lady behind the counter said
"What are you looking for?" I replied .45ACP...She countered with how many boxes would you like, the limit is 6..I could almost tell by the look I got that she knew I was totally taken aback. 200 Rounds of .45acp target loads(Winchester white box) for roundabout $60.00(I believe the Remington UMC packs of 250 at Academy were about $80, the last time I saw a box there)....the local Academy charges about $12 more per box of 100 than wally world does. And my XD has had no trouble whatsoever feeding the WWB loads.. I haven't seen any .45ACP at Academy in....about 2 months. When Wally World had it, like I said, my jaw dropped and I might have just drooled a little bit.
Keep at it, over on the XDTalk forums everyone across the country seems to think they are finally catching up. And seeing as I could buy 3 boxes at Wal-Mart for the price of 2 at Academy...there's no contest there.
Tubby is correct. Supply simply cannot meet current demand.
Everything to do with guns and ammo has been overwhelmed. Look at most states that have concealed weapons licenses/permits. They have all experienced record numbers of license/permit applications.
Since November of 2008 there have probably been more new gun owners to arrive on scene than one could count from four or five years combined from years past.
As Tubby said, ammo sales had been very predictable year to year up until now. The supply of every component of ammunition has become stressed under the current demand and it will take a while to stabilize.
Part of the stabilization will come from people to stop panic buying, some will simply get tired of shooting, others will sell their guns and ammo to pay their credit card bills that they ran up buying guns and ammo and the supply chain will also eventually increase production somewhat.
This is no different than the "gas crisis" during the late part of last year when everyone, because of one stupid email, freaked out and started filling up their cars, trucks, boats and every gas can they could find. It took weeks for the situation to stabilize when people finally figured out there was no reason to have freaked out.
“I am consistently on record and will continue to be on record as opposing concealed carry.”
- Barack Obama Chicago Tribune, April 27, 2004
Nice posting Tubby. Thanks for your insight and reasonable explanation. Some of the conspiracy theorists are funny, and scary at the same time.
M&P 9 and 9c
Remington 810 20 gauge
"I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution, which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents." -1792, James Madison
There are always too many Democratic, Republican and never enough U.S. congressmen.
And recall there are actually very few powders made in the US. Hodgdon does not make powder, they are a reseller. Most powder is made in Australia, Canada, Belgium and a tiny percentage is made in Florida by St Marks Powder Company.
Varget is made in Australia. Now you have overseas shipping, customs, etc to deal with and that's why you are seeing a shortage of Varget. That stuff takes time.
07/02 FFL/SOT since 2006
But back to the original poster, that is the Aluminum cased 9mm Blazer rounds, which is usually a couple dollars less a box than the CCI brass cased rounds, because the Al is that much cheaper than brass. You can say the price of the other components went up (like powder and primers) but the price of metals has gone down in the past 12 months. And CCI makes the Al cases themselves. And Walmart prices the brass Blazer at the ~$10.00 a box price.
So yeah, Natchez is (in my opinion) price gouging.
Tubby: I am a retired Quality Mgr. that had issues with JIT. It was a real hassle to raise contracted quantity. The PPM rejects would go thru the roof because of the increased pressure on the supplier. Are you running into this problem? Your explanation was right on about the components. My guess would be printing of the boxes. THANK YOU!!!! for an excellent dissertation.
the crazy thing is .40 cal is cheaper than 9mm
When the election hit, instead of buying guns I bought primers and powder. I'm getting down to my last few thousand of each and have another 100,000 primers on order direct from CCI. I was given a 12 week lead time.
The way the domestic supply line works is this. There are a few primer manufacturers, CCI, Federal, Winchester, Lake City, and maybe one more. LC only makes primers for their ammunition. Occasionally they will release primed brass to nationwide distributors, but not often. They are also ammunition manufactures. To pay their bills they need to sell so many rounds of ammo that month and they hold back that much plus a percentage for increased orders. The rest get allocated to OEM manufacturers such as my company and reloaders and their suppliers like Grafs, Midway, Midsouth, etc. So ATK (Alliant Tech Systems) makes the primers for CCI and the ATK family who distributes it to them, they take their cut, send the rest to their clients. OEM manufacturers like myself are in line before the distributors, so when CCI has another batch of primers available to pass along down the distribution channels, I'm taken care of before Powder Valley, Wideners, etc because I'm an OEM manufacturer.
Same thing with powder although most powder is made overseas, gets boated over to Hodgdon, et al and then distributed through the same lines except the ATK families are taken care of first, then the smaller OEMs like me, then distributors, etc.
By far the number one consumer group of small arms and ammunition is the American civilian market. I've heard the figure of 9:1 tossed around a lot. For every round of small arms ammunition sold to the US military or any other group or country of the world, the US civilian will buy 9 rounds to that single round. Now couple that
the aforementioned figure of a domestic production capacity of 8 billion rounds a year for the big 4 manufacturers, then triple the demand and you can see how the supply lines choke and the ever present supply and demand economics takes a turn for the extreme end of the spectrum and it's reality is apparent.
In this current market the wave was nice, I kept my prices the same and just sold more and quicker. I have enough on hand as far as components to last about a month and a half so I will be buying at full retail or wont' have stock on hand for several weeks until my CCI order ships.
Well, I gotta go out in the shop and load up 1500 rds of .40 ammo for my local LE's training ammo order. I'll be back later to check the thread and offer any more insight as to this whirlwind of chaos.
07/02 FFL/SOT since 2006
IF it's true that there's no conspiracy to limit the production and sale of handgun ammo, and I'm not so sure it is, than what about importing ammo? Why aren't they importing ammo from China and elsewhere ? Almost everything else is imported from China. If people here can't figure out how to make more of such a simple item to satisfy supply and demand then I'm sure China could, and the importers could make a ton of money in the bargain.
I'd like to hear from people who are actually working in the factories where ammo is made. I don't know if it's true but I read a post by one guy who said he did and he said that they were slowing down the production lines and reducing their hours, not the opposite.
Tubby/Adam - You own something called "Freakshow Manufacturing" and your slogan is "You can kill it. We can help."? That all sounds more like something antigunners might dream up to make pro 2nd ammendment people look bad. Is that some kind of sting operation you're running there?