Question for the Engineers & Scientists ?

This is a discussion on Question for the Engineers & Scientists ? within the Defensive Carry Guns forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by AutoFan I actually spent a few years working in the fields of probability, failure and reliability. Statistics can only be applied to ...

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  1. #46
    Member Array merlin82plus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AutoFan View Post
    I actually spent a few years working in the fields of probability, failure and reliability. Statistics can only be applied to large numbers of items or events, not individuals. Reliability of mechanical devices (such as handguns) follows a Weibull curve, that kind of looks like a bathtub. You have a larger number of failures at the beginning of life of a product ("infant mortality") when all the individual items that have inherent flaws (be they material, assembly or design) fail. Then you have a flat section of the curve that represents the normal failure rate of the item. Finally you have the end of life section of the curve, when the collective wear and tear starts causing frequent failures. The curve can be reset to the flat section by restoring worn or broken parts to new condition. You can establish Mean Time To Failure of an individual handgun by firing a lot of rounds and tracking how often the gun malfs per x number of rounds, and how that number is trending. When you have the malf, you need to clean, lube, replace springs, etc., that return the gun to normal operating condition. Then start over again. You'll need to do multiple runs. A good rule of thumb for the minimum sample size is the square root of the total number of rounds that is the actual normal lifespan of the handgun (as opposed to the designed lifespan) Now all this will only work if you use the same ammo throughout, and don't have any significant change in conditions. See how simple this is?
    ^ this

    Quote Originally Posted by AutoFan View Post
    The good thing is a kind of meta-experiment is going on all the time with a number of gun owners shooting a number of handguns of the same manufacturer and design with a variety of ammo, reporting it over the internet, that gives you a general idea of how reliable a gun of that model by that manufacturer may be.
    ^ This, too. I bought my XD45 based on positive experiences reported by others online.

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  3. #47
    Member Array merlin82plus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by C hawk Glock View Post


    That was good! Hence another reason I have been liking revolvers and 1911's more these days. They make great pistol whippers! Plastic does not have the umph!
    I gotta disagree. My XD with a full load of 45 acp weighs enough that you wouldn't want to get whacked with it !!!

  4. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by merlin82plus View Post
    I gotta disagree. My XD with a full load of 45 acp weighs enough that you wouldn't want to get whacked with it !!!
    You want to trade whacks with my full size Colt 1911?
    Ccccccc what? Ccccccccccc Hawks!

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