Heads up on what should be a very interesting article about a study about SD ammo

[CanuckQue]

One thing I like to watch for is regarding barriers. The study is (likely) only counting hits. But a barrier either prevents a hit or it does not. If your .45 acp goes through a door, and tumbles out with the kinetic energy of a .32, then it's still quite likely to stop the problem (or, at least, change the odds). But if the lesser round doesn't even make it through the barrier, it's not going to be a factor in these types of studies.

I'm a strong believer in the second shot, especially with handguns. I think they're likely to matter much more than caliber in 90% of scenarios.

[DefensiveCarry.com]

[Crowbait]

Guys, I have read the article thanks to a good friend.

It's interesting to me that some have already closed their minds to any new data that might be revealing. Some are already beginning to discredit any claims that don't agree with their position.

So let me ask, what do you base your beliefs about bullet effectiveness on? I mean if literally thousands of shootings are analyzed in very reasonable way, it's just all statistics? So we just discount it as nonsense? Again, what info/data do you go by and what do you believe and why?

Most can't even start to give a reasonable answer to that. Most will deny that if we see trends coming from literally hundreds of street shootings that it means anything.

Here are some details:
Hits are considered to be anywhere on the torso or head. That seems very reasonable. We know in a gunfight, we may not be able to get the placement we would hope to. But nonetheless, this study is about what really happened rather than internet hype. And what really happened, is there were a lot of stops with hits to the torso or head.

Fact- there is more data for the 9mm than any other round - well over twice as any other round in fact. There is enough 9mm data that it can be considered statistically significant. All this means is the data and trends of the 9mm will be the most accurate of all the data collected.

Now for something Glockman10mm said, "If it's the one I think they will do, just wait until it shows that the 9mm fmj is has only a 9% less stop rate as a ( gasp!) rifle... I think he read the .357 mag. as the 9mm; they're right beside each other. But, his point still stands strongly. The 9mm shows a failure to incapacitate in about 13% of the real-world actual shootings, and remember half of the 9mm hits were with ball ammo, and the results are still 13%. The rifle data shows a failure to incapacitate in about 9% of the real-world actual shootings. The difference is 4%, not 9%.

And, remember there is more data on the 9mm than any other round. That means the trends disclosed by the 9mm data is not likely to change much with further shootings. The rifle data is rather small statistically speaking - 126 people shot compared to 456 for the 9mm. So, it could be that further shootings with a rifle could make the failure to incapacitate percentage go down. What's the most it could go down? 9%! It actually can't go down that much, it can only approach a 9% change with huge numbers added to the data base.

Ok, that's all the spoiling I'm doing for now. We'll have to read the article and I can promise you there's another gem in it that may be surprising and is certainly significant. I can also promise that it will be vehemently denied even though real-world street shootings show it to be true.

I'm guessing it has something to do with the .45 ACP NOT being all it's cracked up to be??? Just a guess.

-Russell

[Tangle]

I'm guessing it has something to do with the .45 ACP NOT being all it's cracked up to be??? Just a guess.

-Russell

Sort of, perhaps more about the 9mm being under-rated and other rounds being over-rated.

[glockman10mm]

Thanks Tangle for correcting me on that. I was trying to go from memory, which, as I get older seems to be a more dangerous approach.

Of course, we are still only assuming that this article will be based upon the study you and I have seen. If so, you are correct, people will stand on their heads here. But some will understand and agree, while some will stay in denial.

As mentioned in conversation, it is reasonable to assume that a good punch in the belly or arm is enough to stop an aggression , especially one by even a 32 or even 25.

Sometimes we get in the mindset that stopping a fight only means a downed perp. In this we are wrong.

[shadow38]

is it fair to say that most sd shootings take place at 20-25 feet or less. i have set up a small airgun range in my garage,to practice close range point shooting,low light no light using a flashlight.and this has payed off when i went to the range with my 9 mm. practice,use ammo that runs 100% in your gun, and use a hollow point round for max wounding.just my 2cents...

[farronwolf]

Not to get into caliber debate before the actual article is available, but oh what the heck.

If you look at the big picture. A 180 lb man is about 1.26 million grains. A 230 grain 45 is less than 2 ten thousandths of that weight. A 124 gr 9mm is just shy of 1 ten thousandths.

If you look at the area of the average person, (sorry don't have the number right now), vs the cross section of a non expanded or even expanded round it is also going to be a relatively small fraction. So, no matter how you cut it, the differences in the ability of the projectile to disrupt the human body is going to be relatively minor across normal caliber ranges.

Now I feel much better about putting on the 9mm this morning and leaving the 45 in the safe. I can go back to condition yellow for a while.

[glockman10mm]

I think what the study may suggest, if not confirm, is that the shock and pain of being shot may very well determine that they decide they don't want anymore.

I believe that we can, with a certain amount of confidence agree that a certain caliber or bullet type may create more damage, but, in the real world, where precise shot placement may be difficult to almost impossible that the benefits of the bigger/badder caliber/ bullet may be greatly reduced.

In that view, and it's a highly tangible outlook, a couple of rounds of hot lead entering a persons body seems to bring about a sudden desire to stop ones aggressive behavior regardless of caliber.
Whether they are down and dead, or turning tail and running off, is of little interest to the intended victim, as long as the act stops.

I have always liked big bullets. And I always will. But I take heart with this report and have to agree with the results.
I think it also helps to put things into perspective on what CC or Defensive carry is all about. It gives real credibility to the use of a pocket gun.

[Crowbait]

I think what the study may suggest, if not confirm, is that the shock and pain of being shot may very well determine that they decide they don't want anymore.

I believe that we can, with a certain amount of confidence agree that a certain caliber or bullet type may create more damage, but, in the real world, where precise shot placement may be difficult to almost impossible that the benefits of the bigger/badder caliber/ bullet may be greatly reduced.

In that view, and it's a highly tangible outlook, a couple of rounds of hot lead entering a persons body seems to bring about a sudden desire to stop ones aggressive behavior regardless of caliber.
Whether they are down and dead, or turning tail and running off, is of little interest to the intended victim, as long as the act stops.

I have always liked big bullets. And I always will. But I take heart with this report and have to agree with the results.
I think it also helps to put things into perspective on what CC or Defensive carry is all about. It gives real credibility to the use of a pocket gun.

Couldnt agree more. Like you, I have always liked a big, fast moving bullet; but the fact remains that if I was hit with even a .22LR it would have a decided effect on whether or not I wanted to continue doing doing what I was doing or not.

[kerberos]

If it's the one I think they will do, just wait until it shows that the 9mm fmj is has only a 9% less stop rate as a ( gasp!) rifle. And that everything from a 32 up to the 45Acp are very very close in the shot to stop ratio for hits on the body.

Yeah, gonna be alot of buzz here on ol DC.

Gonna be alot of buzz? Why what on earth would ever make you think that?

Only 3 pages of comments so far on an article no one has read!!!

[C hawk Glock]

Tangle,

I think the reason people have their opinions and will most likely keep them is because we have heard and seen these types of disputes and articles for years.

[Tangle]

I'm not sure what 'articles' based on large numbers of shootings we have seen in the past. The only one I know of is the Evan and Sanow works, which is suspect for several reasons. One, they only consider one-shot stops which really skews the data, i.e. what if the one shot stops were only 10% and three to five shot stops were more likely. Second, they won't let anyone see the raw data. Third, in some updates, some very credentialed statisticians looked at the changes and determined that it would be all but an impossible outcome.

Other than that, I don't know of any articles where this kind of research and effort has gone into the effort.

I think people have their opinions primarily because it's what they want to believe. I mean just think how intensely the attempt would be to discredit a report that said the .45 ACP wasn't any better than the 9mm. The board would probably explode.

I'm like Gman, "But I take heart with this report and have to agree with the results.".

[kerberos]

Being fairly new to CC, I would just like to say that opinions can be swayed.

I was in the "I'm gonna carry a full size .45 and nothing else" camp.

The more I read and thought about it, I realized if ever in a life or death situation, there will be NO one-shot-stop data attached to my case.

I will fire until the threat no longer remains... I cannot see this being anything less than 3 to 5 shots and most likely 16.

I chose to go with a caliber that provided 2 things (mainly)

1. Capacity with respect to overall concealability

2. Recoil with respect to the ability to get back on target for follow-up shots

There are other reasons I chose the 9mm, but these were the main ones.

I'm a fairly black and white kind of guy most of the time, but I try to keep an open mind and always consider others thoughts that get me off my own "one track"

Looking forward to this article.

[Crowbait]

Sort of, perhaps more about the 9mm being under-rated and other rounds being over-rated.

Yeah, that was worded poorly...The .45 ACP is an excellent and capable cartridge; I just meant that it is not the "be all, end all" of SD rounds. And from what you are eluding to it MAY not even be the "best". Man! I can't wait for this article now! I kinda wish you hadn't said anything Tangle. :)

-Russell

[Hulley]

Any mention of the 5.7x28mm round?

[High Altitude]

Sort of, perhaps more about the 9mm being under-rated and other rounds being over-rated.

This is what I have always thought.

We are poking holes in people, not hitting them with RPGs.

CNS hit, they go down right now.

Anything else, either the person is eventually forced to stop, sometimes happens quick (heart shot), sometimes happens very slow (they bleed out) or the person decides to fall down (oh my god I have been shot!!!), give up or runs away.

You have to have a round that will consistently penetrate deep enough to hit its target even if it has to go through soft barriers (someones arm etc.... hard barriers matter more to LE IMHO) then you have to place that round in the right spot. 9mm, .40, .45acp, it isn't going to matter that much. Put any of those rounds in someones head, heart, lung, arm or foot and you are going to get about the same reaction from the same person etc....