Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight?

This is a discussion on Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight? within the Defensive Carry Guns forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by Rugergirl Shot Placement? NYPD's SOP-9 reports hit rates of 33%, and other similar studies report the same. Of the 5 shots in ...

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Thread: Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight?

  1. #16
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rugergirl View Post
    Shot Placement?
    NYPD's SOP-9 reports hit rates of 33%, and other similar studies report the same.

    Of the 5 shots in your J-frame, figure you are only going to be landing 2 of them.

    Suddenly a 15 round magazine isn't so much ammo, eh?

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  3. #17
    Distinguished Member Array Rugergirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCT View Post
    NYPD's SOP-9 reports hit rates of 33%, and other similar studies report the same.

    Of the 5 shots in your J-frame, figure you are only going to be landing 2 of them.

    Suddenly a 15 round magazine isn't so much ammo, eh?
    Maybe but my snubbie holds 7 rounds.
    Disclaimer: The posts made by this member are only the members opinion, not a reflection on anyone else, nor the group, and should not be cause for anyone to get their undergarments wedged in an uncomfortable position.

  4. #18
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    The only problem using the "average number of shots fired", is half the people involved used more than the average, and half used less. How do you know which half you're going to be in?
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  5. #19
    Member Array bowzette's Avatar
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    thanks for the responses. No guns left. Starting from scratch. Had a couple of snubbies, Glock 17, Sig 226, Springfield 1911 and so forth. Carried the sig as a duty weapon but too big for concealed carry. Comfortable with both auto and revolver. Like the idea of SP 101 for concealed carry but the more I think of only 5 rounds multi BGs and missing under stress the Glock 19 might be a better choice. By the way Mitchell I bear the same "mark of Cain" as you

  6. #20
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rugergirl View Post
    Maybe but my snubbie holds 7 rounds.
    Fine...

    Then statistically, only 3 rounds you have matter...:)

  7. #21
    Member Array CharlieP's Avatar
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    Ah yes - statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by Eagleks View Post
    The last one I knew of here..... 68 rounds fired just by 2 LEO's and not counting the BG. The whole thing was within 15 ft in the wide open, and the BG was only hit once in the leg. No LEO was hit. The Police car behind them had a bunch of holes in it.

    On the other side, many times there is more than one BG who's armed, so plan accordingly.
    Well, I guess the lesson here is that in modern times you need at least 68 rounds to put one hole in a Bad Guy's leg from 15 feet. I suspect that a Marshall from the old west would have only needed ONE round from his single action 6 shooter to put ONE in the BG's chest center. Its called progress.

    But 68 rounnds? Gosh, they must have both emptied 2 magazines. They stopped shooting when they ran out of ammo?

  8. #22
    VIP Member Array Stevew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCT View Post
    Statistics are cold comfort when you are the exception.

    Statistics also lie.

    I know about lying. I'm an attorney. (Insert joke here...)

    The "average rounds fired in a gunfight" is in and of itself obfuscatory because their are, in fact 3 ways to determine an average.

    The most common one, the arithmetic mean is determined by the sum of all of the list divided by the number of items in the list - 10 gunfights with rounds fired: 1, 5, 4, 8, 1, 2, 1, 18, 1, 2 has an arithmetic mean of 4.3 rounds fired.

    HOWEVER...

    The mode, the number which appears most frequently, is 1. This can be considered an average as well...

    The median, well, that's not really relevant to this conversation, so I'm going to ignore that...

    Using the arithmetic mean as a basis for determining how much capacity you need is insufficient for a number of reasons as well, among them:

    #1 The source of the statistics are usually law enforcement. Your actions are likely not going to be similar to their needs, nor are your circumstances going to be similar.

    You will not have a partner to support you or be able to call for support (you need more ammo than cops...); however, you will probably be not be conducting any sort of investigatory encounter requiring you to take people into custody (or you need less ammo than the cops...)

    #2 Your own personal situation. I carry a Glock 19 with 2 spare mags in my pocket, but then again, I can dress to conceal it, don't do a lot of heavy lifting were it would print...and while I'm not going to show it to people in the office, I really don't care if people I work with know I'm armed.

    If it would cost you your job to carry a gun...well. A mid size glock may not be the thing for you.

    Make an individual choice based on your circumstances and what you are comfortable with.

    Don't rely on other people's math for your carry choice.
    Send me a bill. Finally got good advice from a lawyer, even though it wasn't "legal" advice.
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  9. #23
    Member Array tracker 1's Avatar
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    i used to feel comfortable with my 5 shot j frame .357, but no more.
    i bought a glock 23 and a 27. the 27 is about the same size and weight as my .357 j frame both loaded. i like my j frame but sure feel better with 10 .40s plus extra mags. 5 shots go really fast and 5 divided 2 or 3 doesn't work for me.

  10. #24
    Senior Member Array mr surveyor's Avatar
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    I don't think that comparing to leo misses is a fair analogy. Most of us put far more rounds down range in a month than most police officers do in a year. If one can deal with the situational stress, then marksmanship and training can be the edge. The LEO's do have the edge on training, initially, but in most departments, live fire is reduced to once...maybe twice a year. Some of the LEO's I know and talk to haven't fired their "duty gun" in months. But, dealing with the stress of the situation, in my opinion, would be the deciding factor.


    surv

  11. #25
    Member Array merischino's Avatar
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    Did they even aim?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eagleks View Post
    The last one I knew of here..... 68 rounds fired just by 2 LEO's and not counting the BG. The whole thing was within 15 ft in the wide open, and the BG was only hit once in the leg. No LEO was hit. The Police car behind them had a bunch of holes in it.

    On the other side, many times there is more than one BG who's armed, so plan accordingly.
    This sounds like a real-life scenario close to the ones we've all been carping about on the movie thread.... where magazine after magazine after magazine gets shot and no one is ever hit until the magic dramatic last bullet.

    I'm not being a smart alec, I'm just asking. 68 bullets, one hit and a poor one at that. With 68 shots I would bet they weren't aiming for the leg. 15 feet distance?

    Now I am being a smart alec. I've been shooting 2 weeks, I've got 700 rounds under my belt, and granted I'm aiming at a piece of paper 15 feet away, not a BG with a gun aimed at me, I'm able to hit the "cardiovascular triangle" in "Center Mass" with almost tiresome regularity.

    Seems to me like it would be awfully hard to shoot a box and a half and only hit your target once. But... I am a newbie, I have only shot holes in paper, I'm not operating under an adrenaline rush, and I'm not a trained professional, yadda yadda yadda.

    Does this kind of thing happen often?
    People who like this sort of thing will find this the sort of thing they like.
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  12. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCT View Post
    NYPD's SOP-9 reports hit rates of 33%, and other similar studies report the same.

    Of the 5 shots in your J-frame, figure you are only going to be landing 2 of them.

    Suddenly a 15 round magazine isn't so much ammo, eh?
    Landing two in the boiler room should do the trick.
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    I took the one less traveled by,
    And that has made all the difference.

  13. #27
    New Member Array Zotter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by merischino View Post
    Does this kind of thing happen often?
    Yup, more often than not.

    Factor of facing another breathing being instead of a piece of paper, plus it's a being that wants to do you harm AND has the means to accomplish that - there's a full metric butt load of psychology, reflex, instinct and other not so voluntary reactions and stresses to get through to put lead on target.

    All you can bank on is training, training - and then some more training. Even then, when it happens - it'll be very different.
    "You see, wire telegraphy is a kind of a very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? Radio operates exactly the same way, except there is no cat."
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  14. #28
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    Mitchell,
    Thanks for your post; I've been looking for something like it for months! I would be interested to hear any more you might have to say on the subject.

    Bowzette,
    I'm looking at an SP101 as well. I plan to carry two speed strips in addition to the loaded gun. Hopefully, I will never need any of it!

  15. #29
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    I think the BGs these days tend to travel more in groups (thus, gangs - they learned there is safety in numbers) so the old 5-6 shot revolver may have a disadvantage.

    However, you sound experienced, if a bit rusty (which can be cured). There are many hi-cap pistols available these days in the same size and weight as the revolvers, so why not take advantage of technology?

    As to how many rounds are needed? Sure, there are those who feel you can't carry enough, but maybe they should travel in better places. I think any 10-12+ capacity is more than enough for 95+% cases, and a 7-8 cap is probably okay. I don't see the shoot, reload, shoot, reload again situation very realistic for someone who's walking across the Wally world parking lot and gets robbed.

    Do I think I could take down armed 3-4 BGs and walk away untouched? No, but if it came to that, I hope I can get a couple of them off the streets before I go.
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  16. #30
    Ex Member Array maddyfish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr surveyor View Post
    I don't think that comparing to leo misses is a fair analogy. Most of us put far more rounds down range in a month than most police officers do in a year.
    surv
    Agreed. Cops are not a good comparison. They take shots that any reasonable person would never even consider. Plus significantly less worry on their part about criminal and civil concerns lead to the old spray and pray approach.

    Witnessed it in person once. I was almost arrested for dressing down the cop on the spot. The idiot shot at a fleeing bank robber who was carrying an obvious airsoft gun, with his 40 cal from 1. a moving police car, 2. through his own windshield, 3. at a running suspect on a crowed sidewalk, 4. from approx 75 yards, 5. accross a busy city intersection.

    Don't compare cop shootings to those that a reasonable citizen in self defense mode might take.

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