Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight?

This is a discussion on Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight? within the Defensive Carry Guns forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; Originally Posted by cinsc Mitchell, Thanks for your post; I've been looking for something like it for months! I would be interested to hear any ...

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Thread: Number of Rounds fired in Gunfight?

  1. #31
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cinsc View Post
    Mitchell,
    Thanks for your post; I've been looking for something like it for months! I would be interested to hear any more you might have to say on the subject.
    Fine, here's more.

    Planning for the "best of worst case scenario" never appealed to me.

    Let me explain this mindset.

    I want to carry a gun to defend myself. I will carry a J-frame and a speed strip, or a pocket .380 and a spare mag because in the unlikely event I need a gun, it will probably be a minimally bad situation in which merely having a gun will be sufficient.

    The assailent will either flee from the sight of the gun, or if I need to fire, I will be facing an uncommitted opponent who is as conserned with being injured as I am, and I will be able to make sufficiently incapacitating hits on this assailent with a small, hard to shoot, low capacity handgun.


    As for me...HELL NO.

    Let me tell you about my client, "T".

    T is a little hispanic guy. 5'2", 125 pounds.

    He's been shot 4 times with service calibur handgun rounds to critical areas and he still isn't dead, and he is still able to get around. He's a tough little MF who's soaked up 2 car accidents (one were he was dragged) and has taken more punishment in his life than you or I have.

    He's done time, and while he doesn't want to go back...lets just say it's not going to phase him like it would you...

    He is, quite frankly, unremarkable when it comes to people you may encounter.

    His level of commitment, conditioning, mental toughness, skill level, agression and lack of consern for the consequences is about average for the people you don't want to meet.

    He is not an SF guy gone bad. He is just a guy from the projects who sell drugs and is trying to go straight.

    But don't mess with him, because he will kill you if he needs to, needs or wants what you have, or if you disrespect him in front of people that matter to him like his kids or family.

    He's the guy stocking shelves in the grocery store. The guy fixing your car. The guy doing construction on your building...whoever...

    Your J-frame isn't going to impress him. Hell - shooting him may not impress him.

    Oh, here's the best part...

    Just cause he's a street thug, don't mean he's stupid. He know about ruses, distraction, ambush, target evaluation, target intradiction and things like that.

    He can't put it into words...but he knows all about it.

    He's not going to attack you when you have time to react.

    He'll attack you when you are looking at his friends 30 feet away having a loud argument or loading your kid into the car...and the first thing you will know about the attack is a horrifyingly strong guy grabbing you, a knife in your side and the words "Be cool..." whispered in your ear.

    He's not going to stand their. He's going to move, shoot and move again.

    He's going to close with you, so you getting your hand on the gun is going to be a major acomplishment (did I mention he knows how to fight...oh...well. He does...) without getting KO'd or knocked down and stomped into stupidity.

    Even if you draw the gun, good luck in a gun grapple with him.

    That's my idea of how things are going to go and who you are going to meet.

    But I'm sure I'm completely off.

    Your J-frame should be fine...

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  3. #32
    Distinguished Member Array bladenbullet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zotter View Post
    Yup, more often than not.

    Factor of facing another breathing being instead of a piece of paper, plus it's a being that wants to do you harm AND has the means to accomplish that - there's a full metric butt load of psychology, reflex, instinct and other not so voluntary reactions and stresses to get through to put lead on target.

    All you can bank on is training, training - and then some more training. Even then, when it happens - it'll be very different.
    +1...check your accuracy when the paper starts firing back at you, you are under pressure and firing on the move or from behind cover with incoming fire...instead of shooting from the square box you are used to shooting from...

    if you are going to use averages to decide what to carry maybe you should save yourself some money...the odds of even needing a gun at all are pretty steep...so why bother?...

  4. #33
    Distinguished Member Array bladenbullet's Avatar
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    on this site there is a thread that involved 3 men exiting a truck with intent to harm a single individual in a car wash bay...had 2 decided to go around the other side of the car wash bay and start an attack from different directions and been armed with guns rather than only one guy with a knife how many rounds do you think would have needed to be fired to end the fight?...

    heres another curve...one or two bullets seldom stop a person dead in their tracks and they usually continue their attack even after being shot multiple times...the human body is an amazingly resiliant machine....at what point do you believe you will have time to reload if an attacker is continuing to fire at you or has reached you and is stabbing you after striking them with multiple shots?...

    and please...no "i carry a .45 so i dont have to worry about that stuff. there are plenty of people who have survived multiple .45 hits...and most hunters are aware of how long a deer can last even after multiple hits if not struck in a vital organ...even then a bleed out can take some time....

  5. #34
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    If a 5.56mm with hunting style ammo (not FMJ...) is light for hunting nonagressive herbivors, then why is a .45ACP considered so great for defending against agressive people?

  6. #35
    Member Array richgp100z's Avatar
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    I carry a Ruger SP101 with 4 5 shot speedloaders from HKS. I always point for the eyes when I have to defend myself. !58 grain SJSPs for defense. 5 shot revolver is all I really need. richgp100z

  7. #36
    Member Array Fenris's Avatar
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    I personally think the average is completely meaningless. If one joker fired a million rounds in a single encounter it would throw off the average. What about all the people who are unarmed victims, or armed but taken by surprise? Should we average in all the 0's for the shots they never fired?

    More useful would be the median. But that only tells you that half used more, and half used fewer. Cold comfort if you happen to be in the half that ends up needing more rounds. What you probably really want is the confidence interval. At a 90% confidence interval, 90% of the time you would have enough. Is that good enough for you? Maybe 95% would be better.

    Of course the entire exercise is academic since I doubt any of these statistics are available. So you have to either take a SWAG or look at how the people most likely to be in a SD situation carry. Cops maybe? I think most carry hi-cap pistols with two reloads. Sounds good to me.

    Of course maybe you'll be in the lucky half if you ever are really unlucky. Me? When I'm unlucky, I'm very unlucky. I plan accordingly.

  8. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellCT View Post
    If a 5.56mm with hunting style ammo (not FMJ...) is light for hunting nonagressive herbivors, then why is a .45ACP considered so great for defending against agressive people?
    .223 hunting rounds tend to disintegrate easily, whereas the .45 doesn't.
    Shot a coyote in the back of the head once with a 55 grn .223 and the bullet didn't even exit. It did stop the critter though, as most head shots would.
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  9. #38
    Senior Member Array imthduke's Avatar
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    Statistics are cold comfort when you are the exception.

    Statistics also lie.

    I know about lying. I'm an attorney. (Insert joke here...)

    The "average rounds fired in a gunfight" is in and of itself obfuscatory because their are, in fact 3 ways to determine an average.
    I'm still trying to figure out what obfuscatory means.
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  10. #39
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by imthduke View Post
    I'm still trying to figure out what obfuscatory means.
    Evasive or confusing.

  11. #40
    VIP Member Array old grunt's Avatar
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    Without sounding like an "arm chair commando"...you could never be wrong by having too much ammo!
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  12. #41
    Senior Member Array ZX9RCAM's Avatar
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    Pardon the threadjack.....


    Michelle,

    Would you happen to be a member of Rennlist?


    - Cam
    If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.

    -Will Rogers

    Im a big fan of the .22LR for bear defense.
    Just shoot the guy next to you in the knee and run like heck.

  13. #42
    Senior Member Array imthduke's Avatar
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    Evasive or confusing

    Oh well, just say so.
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  14. #43
    VIP Member Array gottabkiddin's Avatar
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    My take on it's like this. The BGs are gonna go for the high capacity pistolas in most cases. I can imagine um now, spray and prey and hope for the best. Just how are you gonna defend against a borage of rounds coming from all around with no apparent aim, except for the general direction. I've seen enough vids to know that, as soon as the perp sees your pistol he starts to flinch and duck as he fires his mag. IMO, about the only thing you can do is point shoot the heck outa there. Personally, I'd rather have more rounds then less. I'd say in this day and age way more than five or six are gonna be spent on average. I could be wrong, and I'm sure it depends on the level of crime in any particular area at any given time.

    In ah era of gangs and packs; I don't think the minimum works any more. There's just to many offense's on the books involving more then one assailant to discount faster reloads and higher capacity for defense.

    JSGOTI

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  15. #44
    VIP Member Array searcher 45's Avatar
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    Having never being in a gun fight however I would think that every BG is different and every situation is different.

    As to the number of rounds needed in a gunfight, who knows.
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  16. #45
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    What is really needed here is some measure such as the mean and some measure similar to variance; No doubt none of this sort of information we are discussing is normally distributed, as the statisticians would say.

    It would be nice to see a plain old graph. Number of incidents on one axis, number of rounds fired on another.

    Then, at one quick look, you could see that unless you are having a really bad day, you don't need more than 5 or 6.

    Now, the question is always, how bad could your day get? Do you walk around with 10? With 15? With 45?

    No one can predict how bad the day will be. But we can reliably say what a typical not so nice day looks like, and that for these you don't need to be carrying around an ammo dump. Run out of luck, and you need an ammo dump. Run out of luck, and Mitchel's client will cold-cock and stab you before you know what happened. Your gun will be useless.

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