"Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

"Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

This is a discussion on "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap! within the Defensive Carry & Tactical Training forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; John Farnam's Quips - 11May03.html 11 May 03 "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap! Both our lives and our craft are ruthlessly ...

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Thread: "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

  1. #1
    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

    John Farnam's Quips - 11May03.html

    11 May 03

    "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

    Both our lives and our craft are ruthlessly fact-oriented. Indeed, so ruthless and unfair does life often seem, that many of us unwisely surrender to beliefs in ESP and the like, in an effort to cushion the impact of stark reality. When we do, we are immersed in an ocean of self-deception and ultimately do ourselves no good service! In simplest terms, sincere belief in ESP is a form of mental illness.

    Casino games are literal manifestations of statical probability. However, gamblers love to talk about "lucky cards," "lucky dice," "winning streaks," "losing streaks," and the like. The casino business is profitable just because customers play "hunches," while the casino plays the odds! The fact is, low-probability events do occur. When they do, someone will always claim to have "seen it coming." Curiously, that claim always comes right after the event!

    If you really believe "streaks" have any predictive value, look at the roulette wheel. Most casinos post the last ten results on an electronic bulletin board that is conspicuously situated above the wheel. Naive players are forever looking for "patterns" on the display. Unhappily, the only "pattern" you'll ever see is a classic bell curve! Indeed, casinos often keep records for months even years, just to make sure the wheel is "regular." They track millions, indeed billions, of spins. Their data shows exactly what any intelligent and rational person would expect: if red has come up eight times in a row, the ninth spin will come up red exactly as often as after any other sequence. At the craps table, I've seen the dice come up seven, five times in a row. The chances that the sixth throw will be a seven is still one in six. There is no voodoo operating here, just statical probability in its purest form. If a seven is thrown when you have money on a number, you lose. You lose, no matter how "unfair" it seems, no matter what your "feelings" were, no matter how fervently you pray!

    The laws of randomness, like to law of gravity, apply to everyone equally. We all need to stop "feeling" and start thinking. Your can "feel" any way you want. It will change nothing. "Feeling" is for losers! You can't predict the cards you're going to be delt. Stop imagining that you can. Start concentrating on the one thing you can control: the way you play them. Victory dwells in the heart of the warrior, not in circumstances.

    /John


    This makes me think of several things:

    #1 Do not fall into the trap of "I'll only train for X because X is what I feel is likely to happen to me..."

    Evaluate your threat level based on facts, not feelings.
    Deliberate and respond in a fact driven, rational manner.

    #2 Just because you have evaluated your situation and determined Y to be outside your threat profile, still have a plan for dealing with it. Random stuff happens. Be prepared.

    I notice many people have a mindset that questions the need to be skilled with a handgun to be able to reach out and crush someone at obscene distance, then bring into it all sorts of arguments about why taking such a shot would land you in jail...

    Yet, terrorism and mass shooting happen. In those instances, impossible to pin down when the next will happen, you don't get a choice of situation, so you can only have your skill...and your tools.

    Deal with the problem or it will deal with you.


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    VIP Member Array Hiram25's Avatar
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    Makes sense to me!
    Hiram25
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    Ex Member Array Kerby's Avatar
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    This is life, it is what it is so I say ALL TRUE...

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    VIP Member Array First Sgt's Avatar
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    Folks need to read and heed! Train and prepare. MINDSET, TACTICS, SKILL, GEAR....Get in bed with the big four..JMO
    Sometimes in life you have to stand your ground. It's a hard lesson to learn and even most adults don't get it, but in the end only I can be responsible for my life. If faced with any type of adversity, only I can overcome it. Waiting for someone else to take responsibility is a long fruitless wait.

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    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by First Sgt View Post
    MINDSET, TACTICS, SKILL, GEAR....Get in bed with the big four..JMO
    That's the order James Yeager (tacticalresponse.com) teaches it.

    Gear...that's what most people focus on because it's easy to acquire, and it's comparatively cheap to get when held against the cost of training.

    It's also a trap. Don't fall for the glittery gold...or in this case, the flat black or earth green of the cool gear at the expense of learning.

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    VIP Member Array oakchas's Avatar
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    And, I agree... I'd add only one thing... "A man's got to know his limitations."

    And, if you haven't trained, you're likely to find out, rather painfully, that you are more limited than you thought.
    Rats!
    It could be worse!
    I suppose

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    No more green clovers or blue moons? Dang guess it's waffle house from now on.

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    Experience is the best but the most unforgiving of teachers, the wise man will learn from the experiences of others as well as their own.
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    "Don't forget, incoming fire has the right of way."

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    VIP Member Array JDE101's Avatar
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    "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

    ???????? Just what does statistical probability in relation to casino games and gambling have to do with defensive situations? NOTHING!!!!!

    I agree with all the comments about training, etc., but strongly disagree with the statement that "hunches, feelings, intuition" are "all crap"! How many of you out there have been in a situation where "something just didn't feel right"? How many have had their "spidey senses" go off in a situation? I'm quite certain combat soldiers, police officers, and numerous situationally aware civilians have all experienced an instance where a "hunch" or "feeling" that something just wasn't "right" saved their backsides!

    So extrapolating from gambling to defensive scenarios is bovine fecal matter!
    Live to ride, ride to live. Harley Road King And keep a .45 handy Kimber Custom TLE II

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    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDE101 View Post
    "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

    ???????? Just what does statistical probability in relation to casino games and gambling have to do with defensive situations? NOTHING!!!!!

    I agree with all the comments about training, etc., but strongly disagree with the statement that "hunches, feelings, intuition" are "all crap"! How many of you out there have been in a situation where "something just didn't feel right"? How many have had their "spidey senses" go off in a situation? I'm quite certain combat soldiers, police officers, and numerous situationally aware civilians have all experienced an instance where a "hunch" or "feeling" that something just wasn't "right" saved their backsides!

    So extrapolating from gambling to defensive scenarios is bovine fecal matter!
    People need to understand what their hunches are telling them. They need to be able to understand WHY they feel something is wrong, because if they don't, the will ignore them and get hurt.

    A hunch is something you see that is out of place, and may not know why - so learn.

    Learn to read situations better than you do. Learn more about personal interaction, body language and so forth.

    Be the superior gunman with superior situational awareness and a recgonition of what your subconcious it saying to you.

    Otherwise, you dither or react inappropriately. Either of those has consequences - injury or running afoul of the law. Both can be equally bad.

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    VIP Member Array JDE101's Avatar
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    I totally agree with you, MitchellCT.
    Live to ride, ride to live. Harley Road King And keep a .45 handy Kimber Custom TLE II

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    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Then how can you disagree with Farnam's statement?

    Life, especially when it yours on the line, is a ruthlessly fact driven thing.

    I'll even go further than extrapolating from luck & gambling to defensive scenarios right into the holy grain - someone's carry gun!

    Many people get opinions from others without even knowing the qualifications of those offering opinions, barely assure the weapon is assembled correctly from the factory ("I shot a 20 round box of my chosen ammo in it, and if did fine!") then never fully test the weapon's carry system or support gear (Does that extra magazine you got actually work with that gun and ammo? Is that spare mag actually accessable when you need it?)

    That's relying on luck. That's relying on hope. Not fact. Not hard data.

    That's what needs to be purged...but that is what people do because it's easier to rely on that than hard data.

    Back to defensive situations - people rely on feelings and all that intangible BS rather than learning how to filter it and evaluate sensory input correctly, efficiently and quickly...when it's the speed of your decission making process that actually makes the difference between your success or mere survivial.

    Someone who can't make that decission fast enough is left to make future choices based on a negative - "Something is wrong here...but what?" rather than a positive - "This person's demeanor is inconsistant with his language, and his body positioning in relation to me and the exit is not that of a friendly approach, but cutting the line between me and my car or the exit...time to go to General Quarters, put shields on standby and power up the phasers...while smiling pretty and relaxing my shoulders to lure him into my killzone...

    Luck is nothing but the person's ability to correctly interpret subconcious clues more efficiently than the other person.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDE101 View Post
    "Hunches," "Feelings," "Lucky Charms," "Intuition," "ESP"? It's all crap!

    ???????? Just what does statistical probability in relation to casino games and gambling have to do with defensive situations? NOTHING!!!!!

    I agree with all the comments about training, etc., but strongly disagree with the statement that "hunches, feelings, intuition" are "all crap"! How many of you out there have been in a situation where "something just didn't feel right"? How many have had their "spidey senses" go off in a situation? I'm quite certain combat soldiers, police officers, and numerous situationally aware civilians have all experienced an instance where a "hunch" or "feeling" that something just wasn't "right" saved their backsides!

    So extrapolating from gambling to defensive scenarios is bovine fecal matter!
    +100.

    To compare the real world to a casino game is folly.

    I believe in training as much as possible and learning as much as possible. With that said, the reality of our world is that we know almost nothing about it. Also, we know almost nothing about how our super duper complex brains work.

    We do know plenty about math, probability and statistics though and this is why casinos make money. In the real world there IS scientifically proven results that hunches and feelings about situations do have merit*. Don't believe me? Do just like JDE101 said and ask a detective about hunches or about "his gut". It doesn't always work but it's right more often than not.

    *The US Navy has used hunches in the past to find lost submarines and other lost items. Dr. John Craven, a Navy mathematician, helped to pioneer a new search technique using hunches. All of the Navy's experts involved compiled the data available to them to factor in where a missing submarine might be. When the sub was not found were it "should" be Dr. Craven then had all the experts indicate where they thought the sub might be based on any hunches or gut feelings. He factored in the additional "hunch" data into the existing data and POW they found the lost submarine. He then went on to use this model at least three more times to find additional lost wrecks and a lost missile.

    In the real world hunches, feelings or "intuition" are the products of your subconscious brain processing information faster than your conscious brain. A hunch is your subconscious trying to alert you to something unusual or "off". It's real, it's true and it happens all the time.
    It is surely true that you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. Nor can you make them grateful for your efforts.

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    VIP Member Array JDE101's Avatar
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    I agree that you need to know how to interpret your "feelings" and "hunches" and be aware of your surroundings, and take the appropriate actions, etc. I agree you need to train. I do NOT agree that "intuition", "feelings", "hunches" are a "bunch of crap".

    Some people believe in the afterlife, some don't; some people believe in ESP, some don't; some believe in spirits/ghosts and some don't. Some things can NOT be definitively proven or disproven. To simply call "beliefs" a "bunch of crap" is in itself a "bunch of crap".
    Live to ride, ride to live. Harley Road King And keep a .45 handy Kimber Custom TLE II

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    VIP Member Array MitchellCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by atctimmy View Post
    In the real world hunches, feelings or "intuition" are the products of your subconscious brain processing information faster than your conscious brain. A hunch is your subconscious trying to alert you to something unusual or "off". It's real, it's true and it happens all the time.
    The person who can corelate that 'off' feeling with the data they conciously recieve more quickly is the one with the advantage.

    And THAT...is luck.

    Can we all agree that hunches, absent the ability to interpret them into actionable information, are crap?

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