NYPD 2006 Hit ratio in Gunfights

NYPD 2006 Hit ratio in Gunfights

This is a discussion on NYPD 2006 Hit ratio in Gunfights within the Defensive Carry & Tactical Training forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; In both of my articles Combat Mindset & Handgun Stopping Power I used the 20% Hit Rate in a Gunfight math for COPS and had ...

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  1. #1
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    NYPD 2006 Hit ratio in Gunfights

    In both of my articles Combat Mindset & Handgun Stopping Power I used the 20% Hit Rate in a Gunfight math for COPS and had a lot of people tell me I was full of crap! So here is some current data.

    As a Law Enforcement Firearms Instructor / Instructor Trainer I attribute this to poor training.

    “In a crisis, you will not rise to the occasion, but merely default to your level of training.” How good was your training?

    I am now the Training Director for Golden Seal Enterprises in Winchester & Fredericksburg, Va. www.goldensealenterprises.com Please check out our Firearms Training for Law Enforcement, Private Security, Military Spec Op's and Civilian's where you can take training with Law Enforcement & (former) SEAL Instructors.

    Excerpt from an interesting piece in today's New York Times.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/we...w/09baker.html

    Quote:
    New York City police statistics show that simply hitting a target, let alone hitting it in a specific spot, is a difficult challenge. In 2006, in cases where police officers intentionally fired a gun at a person, they discharged 364 bullets and hit their target 103 times, for a hit rate of 28.3 percent, according to the department’s Firearms Discharge Report. The police shot and killed 13 people last year.

    In 2005, officers fired 472 times in the same circumstances, hitting their mark 82 times, for a 17.4 percent hit rate. They shot and killed nine people that year.

    In all shootings — including those against people, animals and in suicides and other situations — New York City officers achieved a 34 percent accuracy rate (182 out of 540), and a 43 percent accuracy rate when the target ranged from zero to six feet away. Nearly half the shots they fired last year were within that distance. In Los Angeles, where there are far fewer shots discharged, the police fired 67 times in 2006 and had 27 hits, a 40 percent hit rate, which, while better than New York’s, still shows that they miss targets more often they hit them.

    Bad marksmanship? Police officials and law enforcement experts say no, contending that the number of misses underscores the tense and unpredictable nature of these situations. For example, a 43 percent hit rate for shots fired from zero to six feet might seem low, but at that range it is very likely that something has already gone wrong: perhaps an officer got surprised, or had no cover, or was wrestling with the suspect.

    “When you factor in all of the other elements that are involved in shooting at an adversary, that’s a high hit rate,” said Raymond W. Kelly, the New York police commissioner. “The adrenaline flow, the movement of the target, the movement of the shooter, the officer, the lighting conditions, the weather ... I think it is a high rate when you consider all of the variables.”

    John C. Cerar, a retired commander of the New York Police Department’s firearms training section, was more tempered in his assessment of the hit rates. “They’re acceptable,” he said. “In pristine conditions, you are going to get better hit ratios.” He said handguns were an imperfect weapon. “As long as the handgun is the main tool for the police officers to use, you are going to have misses,’’ he said.

    Tom Perroni
    Lead Instructor /Training Director
    www.perronitactical.com
    www.goldensealenterprise.com


  2. #2
    VIP Member Array tns0038's Avatar
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    Excellent… post

    Thanks

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    VIP Member Array Cupcake's Avatar
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    I've always believed you. Being an efficient paper-killer does not translate to being a good gunfighter.
    Spend few minutes learning about my journey from Zero to Athlete in this
    Then check out my blog! www.BodyByMcDonalds.com

    Cupcake - 100 pound loser, adventurer, Ironman Triathlete.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cupcake View Post
    Being an efficient paper-killer does not translate to being a good gunfighter.
    I would say a high percentage of LEO and CCW holders are guilty of being a paper puncher and not having dynamic real world handgun skills. Going shooting at a static range is not true firearms training. I am the Lead Firearms instructor for my PD and it is a full time job and very expensive to ensure that all 110 Officers maintain a level of proficiency in tactical handgun skills.

    Good post - thanks for passing it on.
    Training means learning the rules. Experience means learning the exceptions.

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    VIP Member Array Tubby45's Avatar
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    Combat Tactics latest had an in depth article about the NYPD's shooting stats.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tubby45 View Post
    Combat Tactics latest had an in depth article about the NYPD's shooting stats.
    If the NYPD had used Surefire...
    Training means learning the rules. Experience means learning the exceptions.

  7. #7
    VIP Member Array Tubby45's Avatar
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    Equipment doesn't always mean the difference. I know of a few departments that have all the tacticool weaponry but their accuracy in training is laughable.

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    VIP Member Array Janq's Avatar
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    Tom,

    Last summer I posted a trio of threads toward this _fact_ which you may find of direct use;

    'NYPD 2005 Firearms Discharge Report'
    Posted on June 16th, 2007, 07:44 PM
    http://www.defensivecarry.com/vbulle...ad.php?t=27336

    ---

    'Dept. That Can't Shoot Straight..Documents Show Officers Struggle To Hit Live Targets'
    Posted on June 16th, 2007, 07:48 PM
    http://www.defensivecarry.com/vbulle...ad.php?t=27337
    ...On the firing range, New York City police officers are required to put 80 percent of their shots on target. In the field, they are considerably less accurate even as they shoot more bullets per incident.

    A confidential NYPD report indicates an increase in every category of shots fired on the job, accompanied by a disturbing drop in accuracy.

    Of 276 police bullets fired in gunfights in 2005 only 23 found their target -- an 8 percent accuracy rate. Comparing the trend to the year before we see gunfight bullet volume up 200 percent, while the accuracy has deteriorated significantly...
    ---

    'CBS 2 Exclusive: Secrets Of The NYPD'
    Posted on June 16th, 2007, 07:41 PM
    http://www.defensivecarry.com/vbulle...ad.php?t=27335

    ...New York City police officers are required to go to the range twice a year to be qualified with their weapons, but only specialized units get regular tactical training. Privately, experts wonder if training problems could be at the root of the controversial large volume shootings like Amadou Diallo, or more recently Sean Bell. The department has called these cases of "contagious gunfire." Critics told CBS 2 HD that the incidents look more like poor training: a phenomenon some call "pray and spray."

    Whatever the issue, it isn't limited to the NYPD. Eugene O'Donnell, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice said the 2005 Firearms Discharge Report is not surprising.

    "My reaction is that cops don't hit people a lot," O'Donnell said. "But that's not an NYPD problem, that's a country problem. We had a shooting in Florida where they fired 288 shots and missed the guy 282 times. It's a big issue...
    - Janq actively tracks this kind of information
    "Killers who are not deterred by laws against murder are not going to be deterred by laws against guns. " - Robert A. Levy

    "A license to carry a concealed weapon does not make you a free-lance policeman." - Florida Div. of Licensing

  9. #9
    VIP Member Array Janq's Avatar
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    Here is another that I had posted last winter at a different gunfu site...

    The following is an article oriented toward LEOs featuring combat statistics specific to them.
    Now for those of us who are non-LEO CCW there are lessons and information that is dierectly applicable to us even as we are not law enforcement.

    The source of this article is The Virginia Coalition of Police & Deputy Sherrifs.

    Quote Originally Posted by VCOPS
    The article below has interesting statistics and information relating to police shootouts. The studies were made by the NYPD. The results are very interesting and are important enough for review by membership of VCOPS and all law enforcement officers in Virginia. We offer you this article for your information and advise that the information contained in it be evaluated as a part of your entire firearms training program.

    NYPD SOP 9 - ANALYSIS OF POLICE COMBAT

    In 1969, the Firearms and Tactics Section of the New York City Police
    Department instituted a procedure for the in-depth documentation and study of
    police combat situations. It was designated Department Order SOP 9 (s. 69).


    Data gathering began in January 1970, and over 6000 cases were studied during the 1970s. The study results and findings were released in 1981. The following sets out many of those that focus on shooting situations and shooting techniques.

    Since the results became available, pistols have replaced revolvers in most
    agencies, and the results are dated. However, based what one reads in the
    literature, and sees in police videos, the elements and conditions of
    shooting situations have changed little over time. As such, the results can
    be expected to prevail today. At a minimum, they form a solid and scientific
    basis for self defense training and action until new study results and
    findings come along.

    Also, it is likely that the results are applicable most anywhere, as New York
    City, in addition to tall buildings, has numerous suburban communities,
    beaches, large parks, remote areas, highways, rivers, ocean fronts, etc.

    All of the results and findings applicable to police combat situations, are
    not provided here. Hopefully, the snippets below, will serve as a spur to
    those in need of that information, to get, study, and act on it.

    Shooting Distances

    From Sept 1854 to Dec 1979, 254 officers died from wounds received in an
    armed encounter. The shooting distance in 90% of those cases was less than
    15 feet.

    Contact to 3 feet ... 34%
    3 feet to 6 feet ...... 47%
    6 feet to 15 feet ..... 9%

    The shooting distances where officers survived, remained almost the same
    during the SOP years (1970-1979), and for a random sampling of cases going
    back as far as 1929. 4,000 cases were reviewed. The shooting distance in
    75% of those cases was less than 20 feet.

    Contact to 10 feet ... 51%
    10 feet to 20 feet .... 24%

    Lighting Conditions

    The majority of incidents occurred in poor lighting conditions. None
    occurred in what could be called total darkness. It was noted that
    flashlights were not used as a marksmanship aid. Also, dim light firing
    involves another element which is different from full light firing, muzzle
    flash.

    Weapons

    Firearms accounted for only 60% of the attacks on police. However, in the
    254 cases of officers killed in an armed encounter, firearms were used in 90%
    (230) of them, and knives in 5% (11).

    The service revolver was used in 60% of the cases. The authorized smaller
    frame civilian clothes revolver was used in 35% of them.

    In all cases reviewed, an unauthorized or gimmick holster (ankle, shoulder,
    skeleton, fast draw, clip-on etc.) was involved when the revolver was lost,
    accidentally discharged, or the officer was disarmed.

    Unintentional discharges averaged about 40 per year. This number is
    relatively small given: the size of the force (28,000), that all officers are
    required to be armed at all times when they are in the city, and that 4,000
    non-police firearms are processed each year.

    Sight Alignment

    In 70% of the cases reviewed, sight alignment was not used. Officers
    reported that they used instinctive or point shooting.

    As the distance between the officer and his opponent increased, some type of
    aiming was reported in 20% of the cases. This aiming or sighting ran from
    using the barrel as an aiming reference to picking up the front sight and
    utilizing fine sight alignment.

    The remaining 10% could not remember whether they had aimed or pointed and fired the weapon instinctively.

    Quick Draw

    65% of the officers who had knowledge of impending danger, had their
    revolvers drawn and ready.

    This is proper tactically for several reasons, the first being that holsters
    which are designed with the proper element of security in mind, do not lend
    themselves to quick draw. The old bromide, "Don't draw your gun and point it
    at anyone unless you intend to shoot" is a tactical blunder.

    Situations in which rapid escalation occurred, were most often activities
    considered routine, such as car stops, guarding, transporting or
    fingerprinting prisoners or handling people with mental problems.

    Family disputes did not prove to be high on the police danger list. Sniper
    and ambush incidents represented less than 1% of the cases reported.

    Reports on incidents involving police death revealed that the officer was
    alone more often than not and that he was confronted by at least two people.

    Cover

    The element reported as the single most important factor in the officer's
    survival during an armed confrontation was cover.

    In a stress situation an officer is likely to react as he was trained to
    react. There is almost always some type of cover available, but it may not
    be recognized as such without training.

    Positions

    In 84% of the cases reviewed, the officer was in a standing or crouch
    position (supported and unsupported) when he fired.

    (The training doctrine developed for use in an exposed condition involves use
    of the crouch/point shoulder stance. The feet are spread for balance and the
    arms locked at shoulder, elbow and wrist. The body becomes the gun platform,
    swiveling at the knees. Multiple targets can be fired on with speed and
    accuracy through an arc of 140 degrees without moving the feet.)

    Strong Hand or Weak Hand

    Officers, with an occasional exception, fired with the strong hand. That was
    the case even when it appeared advantageous to use the weak hand. The value of placing heavy emphasis on weak hand shooting during training and
    qualification is subject to question.

    Single and Double Action

    The double action technique was used in 90% of the situations and used almost without exceptions in close range, surprise, or immediate danger situations.


    Warning Shots

    A warning shot may set off chain reaction firing.

    Accurate fire from handheld weapons from a fast-moving vehicle is almost
    impossible, even by a highly trained officer.

    Firing while running changes the situation from one where skill has a bearing
    into one in which the outcome depends on pure chance. It endangers the
    officer unnecessarily by depleting his ammunition supply, and increases the
    chance of shooting innocent persons who may be present.

    Rapid Reloading

    The average number of shots fired by individual officers in an armed
    confrontation was between two and three rounds. The two to three rounds per
    incident remained constant over the years covered by the report. It also
    substantiates an earlier study by the L.A.P.D. (1967) which found that 2.6
    rounds per encounter were discharged.

    The necessity for rapid reloading to prevent death or serious injury was not
    a factor in any of the cases examined.

    In close range encounters, under 15 feet, it was never reported as necessary
    to continue the action.

    In 6% of the total cases the officer reported reloading. These involved
    cases of pursuit, barricaded persons, and other incidents where the action
    was prolonged and the distance exceeded the 25 foot death zone.

    Bullet Efficiency

    During the period 1970 through 1979, the police inflicted 10 casualties for
    every one suffered at the hands of their assailants.

    In all of the cases investigated, one factor stood out as a proper measure of
    bullet efficiency. It was not the size, shape, configuration, composition,
    caliber, or velocity of the bullet.

    Bullet placement was the cause of death or an injury that was serious enough
    to end the confrontation.

    Hit Potential In Gun Fights

    The police officer's potential for hitting his adversary during armed
    confrontation has increased over the years and stands at slightly over 25% of
    the rounds fired. An assailant's skill was 11% in 1979.

    In 1990 the overall police hit potential was 19%. Where distances could be
    determined, the hit percentages at distances under 15 yards were:

    Less than 3 yards ..... 38%
    3 yards to 7 yards .. 11.5%
    7 yards to 15 yards .. 9.4%

    In 1992 the overall police hit potential was 17%. Where distances could be
    determined, the hit percentages at distances under 15 yards were:

    Less than 3 yards ..... 28%
    3 yards to 7 yards .... 11%
    7 yards to 15 yards . 4.2%

    The Disconnect Between Range Marksmanship & Combat Hitsmanship

    It has been assumed that if a man can hit a target at 50 yards he can
    certainly do the same at three feet. That assumption is not borne out by the
    reports.

    An attempt was made to relate an officer's ability to strike a target in a
    combat situation to his range qualification scores. After making over 200
    such comparisons, no firm conclusion was reached. To this writer's mind,
    the study result establishes that there is indeed a disconnect between the
    two.

    If there was a connection between range marksmanship and combat hitsmanship, one would expect the combat hit potential percentages, to be well above the
    dismal ones reported. That is because the shooting distance was less than 20
    feet in 75 percent of the 4000 encounters studied.

    The US Army recognizes that there is a disconnect. Its training manual, FM
    23-35 Combat Training With Pistols & Revolvers (1988), calls for the use of
    Point Shooting for combat at less than 15 feet, and when firing at night. It
    does not call for using standard and traditional range marksmanship
    techniques.

    "The weapon should be held in a two-hand grip and brought up close to the
    body until it reaches chin level. It is then thrust forward until both arms
    are straight. As the weapon is thrust forward, the trigger is smoothly
    squeezed to the rear. The arms and body form a triangle which can be aimed
    as a unit." For shooting at 5 to 10 yards, a modified version of the
    technique is used.

    Various Point Shooting techniques are available for use. They are simple,
    direct, easy and quick to learn, and effective. With appropriate emphasis
    and training time allotted to them, one can expect a better future than the
    past.

    Target Focused shooting is taught to the CHP. It is similar to the shooting
    methods of Fairbairn, Sykes, and Applegate, in that the sights are not used
    in close quarters aiming.

    There was an extensive write up of the system in the Oct, 2001 issue of Guns
    & Weapons For Law Enforcement. Louis Chiodo is the developer of the method.
    His site is Gunfighters Ltd., and the URL is:
    http://www.gunfightersltd.com/home.html

    Another innovative approach to Point Shooting is the C.A.R. or the Center
    Axis Relock Method of Gunfighting. C.A.R. is a strong, stable, and flexible
    platform that allows for quick target acquisition and rapid fire bursts of 4
    shots to COM in under 1 second with standard pistols. It also can be used
    effectively in small spaces and vehicles. It provides maximum weapon
    retention, and also serves as a practical and effective base for contact
    fighting.

    An article on the C.A.R. system was published in the Summer 2002 issue of The Deputy Sheriff Magazine which is published by the United States Deputy
    Sheriffs' Association. Paul Castle is the developer of the system. His site
    is Sabre Inc., and the URL is: http://www.sabretactical.com

    The author is a fan of AIMED Point Shooting or P&S as he calls it. He has
    patented a very simple, cheap, and practical aiming aid that has proven to be
    very effective in recent test shoots. Information on it with pics is
    available at http://www.pointshooting.com/guntests.htm

    Anyone who wishes to make and add the aiming aid to their own personal
    firearm/s, is welcome to do so, if done at their own risk and expense and if
    they accept full responsibility for any and all results. This also applies
    to police agencies who may wish to make and add them to various agency
    weapons, and gunsmiths who may be needed to do the work.

    To use the aid, one just grabs the gun, points the index finger at a target,
    and pulls the trigger with the middle or left index finger. That is all
    there is to it. Just point-n-pull, point-n-pull. No more, no less. It is
    instinctive, and it works. The photos of the targets used in tests, show
    that to be fact. One does not need to learn a special technique, grip,
    stance, or dance. The full details on P&S are available for free at
    http://www.pointshooting.com

    The author has had several articles on Point Shooting and related topics
    published over the past few years in a variety of Police publications. A
    recent article titled: Is Front Sight Press, Front Sight Folly?, and one on
    the C.A.R. system, can be reviewed on his site. He is not a professional, or
    a gunslinger. He just objects to shooting methods that don't work when they
    should.

    The US Army's Combat Training manual is free on the web at:
    http://www.adtdl.army.mil/cgi-bin/at...35/fm23-35.htm

    finis..........

    A final note:

    I have recently completed another article titled "Is Front Sight Press, Front
    Sight Folly?" I have not included it here as it would make this long e-mail,
    much longer. I will send it to you if you wish, or you can review it on my
    site. The URL is www.pointshooting.com/folly.htm

    I wrote the Front Sight Press article after I happened upon the US Army's
    combat pistol training manual a month or two ago. It describes in great
    detail, the requirements that "must be met" to use the Front Sight Press
    technique successfully.

    If those requirements are looked at closely, and considered in the light of
    what is known about real life and death pistol gunfights, serious questions
    come up about the use of FSP in gunfights. That is so, because some of the
    requirements are patently unrealistic, and plainly impractical for
    application in those situations. Even the US Army doesn't call for the use
    of FSP at under five yards.

    One article compliments the other.

    .....................End

    http://www.virginiacops.org/Articles...ing/Combat.htm
    - Janq
    "Killers who are not deterred by laws against murder are not going to be deterred by laws against guns. " - Robert A. Levy

    "A license to carry a concealed weapon does not make you a free-lance policeman." - Florida Div. of Licensing

  10. #10
    VIP Member Array Supertac45's Avatar
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    Sounds like they use the spray and pray technique. Practice, than practice some more, and than some more, etc.
    Les Baer 45
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    Senior Member Array jualdeaux's Avatar
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    Two things. To most police officers it seems as if their firearm is regarded about as highly as their can of pepper spray and they have as much or less practice with it. Two, does the NYPD still issue Glocks with that 12+ pound trigger?

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    8lb trigger

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    Quote Originally Posted by Supertac45 View Post
    Sounds like they use the spray and pray technique. Practice, than practice some more, and than some more, etc.
    Unfortunately most LEO are just like the rest of the sheeple walking around, they have very little interest in fire arms and just consider there gun to be a heavy burden on there hip that they wish they didn't have to carry all day. I would venture to say, that in most Police and Sheriff departments that the number of LEO that train with and shoot there weapon on a regular basis is probably less then 5%. the other 95% are the ones that don't touch there weapon more then the once a year when they have to, to qualify with it. They have no incentive. They put there butts on the line everyday for a just over minimum wage job. Most of there on duty time consist of baby sitting drunks, dealing with druggies and marriage counselor for domestic disputes and giving tickets to people that hate them for it.
    there not going to spend there money on gas or ammo if the department they work for is small and doesn't' give out practice ammo. Unfortunately this is the reality of the situation.
    "Planning to draw and chamber a round after TSHTF is like planning to fasten your seatbelt after you see the other guy run a stopsign..."

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    Member Array blueridge's Avatar
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    Twice a year does not sound like enough practice. Once or twice a month would be a lot better.

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    VIP Member Array semperfi.45's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longbow View Post
    Unfortunately most LEO are just like the rest of the sheeple walking around, they have very little interest in fire arms and just consider there gun to be a heavy burden on there hip that they wish they didn't have to carry all day.
    Ouch, that's a hard hit. Mainly because it's true. Scratch me off that list since I live fire train once a week and do dry fire, airsoft and/or sim just about everyday (except weekends). I am the lead firearms instructor for my agency and this is how I got it - do more, know more, want more than everyone else and shoot a hell of a lot better than them too. I actually have co-workers who are surprised that I carry a gun all of the time - go figure!
    Training means learning the rules. Experience means learning the exceptions.

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