Study of Gun Deaths and Possible Influences That May Affect It:

This is a discussion on Study of Gun Deaths and Possible Influences That May Affect It: within the General Firearm Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; Pause, take a deep breath... Clue for the day: Correlation does not equal causation . For example: High vitamin D levels are correlated with skin ...

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Thread: Study of Gun Deaths and Possible Influences That May Affect It:

  1. #16
    Senior Member Array DoctorBob's Avatar
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    Pause, take a deep breath...

    Clue for the day: Correlation does not equal causation. For example: High vitamin D levels are correlated with skin cancer. But, one doesn't cause the other; both are caused by exposure to ultra violet light.

    It is a common error to assume that a correlation is a sign that one variable 'causes' the other. You will never find a perfect 1.0 correlation between two social variables. If that's what you are looking for, you will be eternally disappointed. Correlations about 0.7 are really pretty good and account for half the variability in the associated variables. The other half can be due to measurement error, or some other factor.

    A statistically significant correlation is one that has a less than 5% chance of being erroneous or equal to zero. The larger the size of your sample (e.g. 1000 observations vs. 100) the lower the correlation can be and still be statistically significant. That is, a correlation of 0.2 might be 'significant' if you studied 1000 people but not if there were only 100 in the study. Even then, it would only account for 4% of the variation (leaving 96% unexplained). Before you go legislating or making other decisions on data, you really need to know what the data say.
    Brass63 and First Sgt like this.
    'Guerir quelquefois, soulager souvent, consoler toujours.'

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  3. #17
    Senior Member Array wjh2657's Avatar
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    Statistics are never complete. They never consider ALL factors. Certain areas (states) also attract certain types of people. The demographics of the state population would probably show more than the geographics of a state. On our side of the game (I am a ccw and hunter) we also skew our data. All of our one shot stop data is based only on one stop incidents. Based on this we have built a culture of "Caliber Religion" and dependence on certain calibers of handguns. None of those statistics included how many times the one shot didn't stop the target or the shooting wasn't even reported. It also did not include multiple shot stops by caliber, which is actually much closer to SD reality. Even though the basic method may have been sound, the data is still speculative because all pertinent data was not included. Statistics give us a "ball park" assumption to start from, but they do not prove anything.

    Nothing irritates a true student of science more than to hear the phrase "Scientists have proven......" because nothing is proven, not even by experiment. The best we can say is" it appears that ...... occurs in relationship to ......"

    Statistics are not facts. They are just numbers and you need to know on what data they were based.

    The study is valid, but it cannot be used to make any positive remarks or negative remarks about gun control. It again just shows a mathematical correlation of some data, not proofs of anything. In true science this data would be expanded to include more types of data, and then it would still only be a mathematical correlation, a bit more sound, but still not conclusive.
    Retired Marine, Retired School Teacher, Independent voter, Goldwater Conservative.

  4. #18
    Senior Member Array GeorgiaDawg's Avatar
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    If all gun-related deaths are lumped together, the "study" doesn't really tell us anything of importance. It would need to be broken out by category to glean anything of significance from it.
    "For by grace you have been saved through faith. And this is not your own doing; it is the gift of God, not a result of works, so that no one may boast." - Ephesians 2:8-9

    “The purpose of the law is not to prevent a future offense, but to punish the one actually committed” - Ayn Rand

  5. #19
    Senior Member Array DoctorBob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgiaDawg View Post
    If all gun-related deaths are lumped together, the "study" doesn't really tell us anything of importance. It would need to be broken out by category to glean anything of significance from it.
    Good point. One recent report showed that justifiable shootings were up in states with SYG. That was true.
    Another study showed that Romneycare increased the number of visits to emergency Departments. Also true.

    Interesting to note, however, that although romneycare ED visits went up, the number of ED visits in adjoining states that DID NOT have Romneycare also went up by the same amount. I guess Romneycare didn't cause the change.

    And, with regard to justifiable homicides, civilian and LEO rates BOTH went up by the same amount.... I guess it wasn't SYG...
    'Guerir quelquefois, soulager souvent, consoler toujours.'

    "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." (John Steinbeck)

    Good health actually just means dying at the slowest possible rate.

  6. #20
    Senior Member Array SFury's Avatar
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    Lumping in suicides really makes no sense. Suicides are not pertinent to the data set. People who are willing to shoot themselves would be likely to use some other method to kill themselves. People who actually commit suicide are willing to do whatever it takes because they truly don't believe they can live in this world.

    Let's face it, when someone commits suicide by hanging no one says we should ban whatever was used to hang the person. If someone commits suicide by gun, the same view should be held in regards to the tool used.

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