Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality

This is a discussion on Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality within the General Firearm Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; Interesting. I haven't finished reading this, but figured I'd post it here so others could read through it as well. Study links gun laws and ...

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Thread: Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality

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    VIP Member Array packinnova's Avatar
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    Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality

    Interesting. I haven't finished reading this, but figured I'd post it here so others could read through it as well.

    Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality
    By Tom Watkins, CNN
    updated 1:30 AM EST, Thu March 7, 2013
    Study links gun laws and lower gun mortality - CNN.com

    snippet:
    "States that have the most laws have a 42% decreased rate of firearm fatalities compared to those with the least laws," said Dr. Eric W. Fleegler, an attending physician in pediatric emergency medicine at Boston Children's Hospital and an assistant professor of pediatrics at Harvard Medical School.
    Those states with the most gun laws saw a 40% reduction in firearm-related homicides and a 37% reduction in firearm-related suicides, he said in a telephone interview.
    Fleegler, the lead author in the study published online in JAMA Internal Medicine, reached that conclusion by analyzing data reported to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2007 through 2010 and then correlating those figures with state-level firearm legislation aggregated by the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
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    Distinguished Member Array pipedream's Avatar
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    "The authors cautioned that their methods did not prove any cause and effect connection between firearms laws and deaths, and that factors including how effectively the laws were enforced could undermine their conclusions."


    States with strict gun laws found to have fewer shooting deaths - Yahoo! News

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    Member Array Goat_Herder's Avatar
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    When compared with the quartile of states with the fewest laws, the quartile of states that had the most laws had a lower firearm suicide rate and a lower firearm homicide rate, Fleegler said. The absolute difference in the suicide rates was 6.25 deaths per 100,000; in the homicide rates it was 0.40 deaths per 100,000.
    What a waste of time and money on this study. So the conclusion is - If there are more guns readily available, the suicide by gun goes up while homicide rate is statistically the same. That comes as no surprised since people will find the easiest way to kill themselves. If they have a gun, they will use a gun. If not, they will jump off a building.

    News flash, States with tall buildings and bridges, suicide by leaping off tall structures increases; Iowa remains the lowest with 0.01 per 100,000 suicide by jumping

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    This isn't science!
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    Senior Member Array Dandyone's Avatar
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    There is a positive correlation b/w gun ownership rates and gun death rates... but it is not strong (and correlation does not prove causation)

    That said, at the state level, there is zero correlation between gun control (Brady scores) and any of the following: violent crime rate, gun violent crime rate, homicide rate, gun homicide rate. To see for yourself, click on the scatterplots below. Pearson's R (a measure of correlation) is zero for all but the gun violent crime stats... but they don't include Illinois or D.C.... and if they did, the very slight correlation would melt away to zero.

    violence brady score twin graphics.jpg

    Gun violence brady score twin graphics.jpg
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    Violence is violence. England proves that removing the gun allows more room for human creativity. Their violent crime rate is 4X the U.S. England has a murder rate of about 1.35/100000 (2011). Very few by gun. Minnesota, with "shall issue" and about 100000 carry permits, with modern rifles and high capacity ammo thingies, has a murder rate of 1.38/100000. Violent people are going to be violent. Cricket bat, golf club, fist, rock. There was murder and other violent acts before guns were invented. Removing the gun just creates a larger pool of victims.

    Studies also show that population density is a big factor, strongly effected by the ability of the individual to protect himself or be protected. Wealthy seem to do better in high density housing, with paid guards and lots of police protection. Minneapolis, home of many poor in high density housing, had a murder rate of 8/100000. NYC vs NYS looks the same, Chicago vs Illinois also.

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    VIP Member Array BugDude's Avatar
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    And states with more cars have more car deaths. States with more pools have more pool drownings.
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    I think somebody forgot to tell Chicago and Detroit.
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    Very flawed study, first, they looked at total deaths, including suicide. That made states such as Alaska seem like it had a gun violence problem, it doesn't, it has a suicide problem. Unless somehow the guns are making people kill them selves, they aren't, it isn't a very relevant comparison. Alaska's suicide problem has been linked to long harsh winters with little to no sun light. Second problem, the study looked at gun homicides, not total homicides. It makes states such as Hawaii that has move non-firearm homicides than firearm homicides look better with its multiple laws. Third problem, in the conclusion the author states that firearm homicides were statistically higher in states with less laws, but if you review the actual data, this difference is only found after some serious manipulation of the stats, adjusting for some of the variables the author recognized, but not all of them. Huge red flag while reviewing a study. Fourth problem, the authors grouped states in a odd manner. Somehow Vermont with the loosest gun laws got in the second group, remember the aurthur only says there is difference between the 2 most extreme groups. Vermont is the original constitutional carry state, since the 1700's, and gets one of the worst scores from the Brady bunch. But somehow Vermont with its extremely low gun homicide rate is not included in the lowest gun laws group, most likely because it would have ruined the authors desired result. Fifth problem, states grouped in the most gun laws group vary widely in their laws. Putting California, Illionois and New York with my home state of RI doesn't make sense. I know RI doesn't have the best laws, but doesn't limit magazines, nor have an "assault weapons" ban, nor limits 50 cal, nor has a registry(at least for now, don't get me started) and does have a path for concealed carry, although not a great one. RI is much less restrictive than those other states, but gets grouped with them, and RI just happens to have a much lower firearm homicide rate. Sixth problem, no break downs by county, making states like Illinois seem like they don't have a gun violence problem. Due to Illinios have a large number of rural communities with low violence levels and its low suicide rate, the authors would have you believe that somehow Illinois has less gun violence that Vermont. Chicago has about 500 murders a year, in 2009 Vermont had 4. In the whole state. 3 stabbings. 1 blunt instrument. Zero with a firearm. I repeat, Vermont had zero firearm homicides in 2009. If any one can say with a straight face that Illinois doesn't have a issue and Vermont does, well, they are either lying or crazy or both. Seventh problem, why isn't DC included? I'll tell you, it would have been in the strictest group and would have ruined the results. Eighth problem, study doesn't look at rate of change or which laws made a difference and which didn't. Author basic conclusion is that states with more guns laws have less gun deaths but that they don't know if the laws made a difference and if the laws did make a difference, they aren't sure which ones do make a difference. Very strong conclusion. Sorry, I just realized you guys can't see me roll my eyes as I type that. Ninth problem, the study has paid for by the Joyce Foundation!!! A notoriously anti-gun group paid for the study, what a shocker, the author uses unproven methodology and makes curious groupings of the states to steer the results towards the conclusion the group that paid for the study wanted. Sorry if this is long winded, and for typos and grammar(I'm on my phone) but I'm a health care professional and learned how to read and interpret studies in school and bs "research" like this makes me furious.

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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slugger6 View Post
    This isn't science!
    And they relied upon data compiled by one of the most rabid anti-gun advocacy groups in the country ...

    ... and then correlating those figures with state-level firearm legislation aggregated by the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence.


    They keyword being: correlating. One would think in a JAMA publication they'd opt to pursue causation, if they were able. Apparently they weren't.
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    Correlation does not imply causation.
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    Look who the authors were and who sponsored the "study."

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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arktos View Post
    Correlation does not imply causation.
    Exactly so. Yet the tone of the write-up strongly suggests there's some worthwhile implications in the "study," despite lack of concrete findings.
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    Too bad we cannot do a decent study on what would happen if the cartels had to compete with a legal supply chain. They are the ones fueling most of the non-suicide “gun violence” after all.
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