Crime Migrates to Easier Targets

Crime Migrates to Easier Targets

This is a discussion on Crime Migrates to Easier Targets within the Home (And Away From Home) Defense Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; As we have discussed here many times, crime is opportunistic and seeks out victims: Crime Migrates to the Suburbs - WSJ.com Statistics............I'd like to see ...

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Thread: Crime Migrates to Easier Targets

  1. #1
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    Post Crime Migrates to Easier Targets

    As we have discussed here many times, crime is opportunistic and seeks out victims:

    Crime Migrates to the Suburbs - WSJ.com

    Statistics............I'd like to see detailed statistics rather than macro as noted:

    The decline in homicides nationally has overshadowed a countertrend: rising murders in the suburbs, the communities that ring cities and have long been promoted as havens from violent crime. U.S. homicides fell sharply from 2001 to 2010, including a 16.7% drop in big cities, according to a federal Bureau of Justice Statistics study of the most recent, reported data. That is because of a host of factors, including better medical treatment for victims of violent injury and aggressive police measures in megacities like New York and Los Angeles.
    The article does focus, unfortunately, on predominantly "Southern" cities (where one might argue gun controls are "lax" - not my opinion, folks, merely an observation), I would like to see analysis of Detroit, Oakland, Portland, Chicago and Newark, for instance............However they did include Pittsburg...........

    Today, suburban murders, from domestic violence to robberies gone bad to massacres like the Newtown, Conn., school shootings, make up about a quarter of all homicides in the U.S., up from 20.7% in 2001, according to the BJS. The sharpest increases in violent crime appear to be in suburbs of cities, including those of Houston, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. The violent-crime rate in Atlanta's suburbs rose 23% between 2000 and 2008, while the city of Atlanta's violent-crime rate dropped 49%, according to federal crime data in a May 2011 study by the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington.
    Another classic:

    The patterns have hardly been uniform. While New York (See my End Note) last week said there had been 414 homicides in the city for 2012, the lowest since the city started recording such data in 1963, Chicago saw homicides go above 500 this year for the first time since 2008, reversing a three-year downward trend.
    Houston can state the same I bet.......

    In 2005, "when the Katrina people came, then it all went down fast," she said.
    And.........

    "It's not safe outside the city," he said.
    The interactive is also interesting. I'll add that link in a minute. I hope this works for ya'll. Per capita would be nice too.

    http://projects.wsj.com/murderdata/?...t-wsj#view=all

    We have all noted, based on informal observations, that suburban crime appears to be increasing. Not this this is the end-all-be-all, but it certainly argues that an appropriate level of SA is needed everywhere........

    End Notes:


    Some states, including New York, reported no justifiable homicides at all for some years.
    Imagine that, NY without a single justifiable homicide in some years! Does that mean they define "justifiable" very narrowly, or is that where Cuomo and Bloomberg hide the real bodies to massage their statistics?


    By Rob Barry, Madeline Farbman, Jon Keegan, and Palani Kumanan. Source: FBI

    Methodology

    The FBI collects this data from the states, except for Florida. Florida doesn't use the FBI's guidelines when reporting additional information about homicides. The FBI data don't capture all homicides. The states' reporting is voluntary, and the country's thousands of police agencies aren't consistent in how they report.
    As in all statistical analysis, consider the sources, the motives and the like before picking fights
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  2. #2
    VIP Member Array Smitty901's Avatar
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    FBI and the like put out numbers that fit their current agenda should be taken with a beer and a good laugh . They make most of it up.
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    There's not a lot of research money going to study the effects of private gun ownership, and anyone who is willing to put money into it already has a dog in the fight. In order to get a good handle on how crime migrates to the suburbs you'd need to control for the effectiveness of policing (manpower, protocols, prosecution), the penalties for being caught, the number of and restrictions on privately carried weapons, and the level of competition among criminals, to name a few.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rock and Glock/
    The article does focus, unfortunately, on predominantly "Southern" cities (where one might argue gun controls are "lax" - not my opinion, folks, merely an observation), I would like to see analysis of Detroit, Oakland, Portland, Chicago and Newark, for instance............However they did include Pittsburg...........

    Detroit, Flint and Saginaw are among the most violent places in the United States. What's happening here is that the crime is indeed moving out of these cities and into the suburbs but with over 320,000 carry permits in the state, criminals are engaging in more crimes of stealth and less street violence, and when they are violent it is likely to be on their home turf against one another or the unlucky who are caught in the crossfire. This follows John Lott's general conclusions in "More Guns, Less Crime"
    Rock and Glock likes this.
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    Senior Member Array Darrow75's Avatar
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    The increase could also partly be due to the fact that "suburbs" are not what they used to be and poverty levels in these suburbs are increasing both due to our lousy economy and the dismantling of large scale housing projects in urban areas and increase in section 8 housing in the suburbs.

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    The problem with Pittsburgh is three fold. 1, There really is no "downtown" where people live. Pittsburgh's downtown area is almost all business and has very few residents. Probably less than 10,00 people actually live in the city proper. So it's easy to claim that most murders are in the suburbs because all of Pittsburgh is suburbs.

    2. I know this is how it worked in Pittsburgh and I'll bet it is going this way all over the country as well. Better transportation routes and more public transportation has made it easier for the criminals to move out into the suburbs to work. In the early 90s Pittsburgh completed a major cross town parkway system that turned a 35 minute drive to the North Hills into a 10 minute drive. Almost immediately the city buses were making runs out to my neck of the woods four or five times a day. The crime immediately followed.

    3. HUD vouchers. In the 90s and the 2000s the Government wanted to move inner city folks out to nicer places so they started getting rid of projects and buying properties in nicer areas for these folks to live. The problem was that they didn't change from a ghetto lifestyle when the moved to the burbs. Instead of "doing in Rome" they brought their predatory lifestyles and violence with them to once nice neighborhoods that were now mostly populated by older folks who make easy targets for young, hard, project educated criminals.

    So the cause isn't criminals getting smarter, the cause is failed Government policies allowing hardened thugs easy access to nicer areas/easy victims.
    Last edited by atctimmy; January 1st, 2013 at 09:00 PM. Reason: kittens
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    Quote Originally Posted by atctimmy View Post
    The problem with Pittsburgh is three fold. 1, There really is no "downtown" where people live. Pittsburgh's downtown area is almost all business and has very few residents. Probably less than 10,00 people actually live in the city proper. So it's easy to claim that most murders are in the suburbs because all of Pittsburgh is suburbs.

    2. I know this is how it worked in Pittsburgh and I'll bet it is going this way all over the country as well. Better transportation routes and more public transportation has made it easier for the criminals to move out into the suburbs to work. In the early 90s Pittsburgh completed a major cross town parkway system that turned a 35 minute drive to the North Hills into a 10 minute drive. Almost immediately the city buses were making runs out to my neck of the woods four or five times a day. The crime immediately followed.

    3. HUD vouchers. In the 90s and the 2000s the Government wanted to move inner city folks out to nicer places so they started getting rid of projects and buying properties in nicer areas for these folks to live. The problem was that they didn't change from a ghetto lifestyle when the moved to the burbs. Instead of "doing in Rome" they brought their predatory lifestyles and violence with them to once nice neighborhoods that were now mostly populated by older folks who make easy targets for young, hard, project educated criminals.

    So the cause isn't criminals getting smarter, the cause is failed Government policies allowing hardened thugs easy access to nicer areas/easy victims.
    You said it perfectly. My parents purchased a brand new house in 1995. It was on the edge of town and we were told there would be apartments going up within the next few years. Well they didn't tell us it would be Section 8 housing. Once those apartment went up, crime magically went up in our neighborhood. I knew of at least a half-dozen places to get drugs in those apartments within a few months of them opening up. Was everyone living there a bad apple? Certainly not, but the vast majority were on welfare, driving vehicles at least 10 years older than the average for the surrounding neighborhood, and at least 75% had lived in cities like New York, Philly, Pittsburg, Detroit, and brought their crime with them.
    Truth is treason in an empire of lies - Ron Paul
    No b@stard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb b@stard die for his country. - General George S. Patton

  7. #7
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    Suburbs are honestly an easier target for a criminal. Most feel relatively secure in the burbs. Bluntly a target rich environment for thieves burglars and robbers. Cities are not as populated as they once were as well so not as much loot as easily had.
    Pedators always move to the location of the weakest prey. And hunt there until better pickings are found.
    Jmo

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