April 18th, 2006 07:12 PM
The Frightening Reality of Why Iran Wants a Nuke
ExSoldier's note: Emphasis mine. No smilies here. Nothing to SMILE about!
The frightening truth of why Iran wants a bomb
By Amir Taheri
Last Monday, just before he announced that Iran had gatecrashed "the nuclear club", President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad disappeared for several hours. He was having a khalvat (tête-à-tête) with the Hidden Imam, the 12th and last of the imams of Shiism who went into "grand occultation" in 941.
According to Shia lore, the Imam is a messianic figure who, although in hiding, remains the true Sovereign of the World. In every generation, the Imam chooses 36 men, (and, for obvious reasons, no women) naming them the owtad or "nails", whose presence, hammered into mankind's existence, prevents the universe from "falling off". Although the "nails" are not known to common mortals, it is, at times, possible to identify one thanks to his deeds. It is on that basis that some of Ahmad-inejad's more passionate admirers insist that he is a "nail", a claim he has not discouraged. For example, he has claimed that last September, as he addressed the United Nations' General Assembly in New York, the "Hidden Imam drenched the place in a sweet light".
Last year, it was after another khalvat that Ahmadinejad announced his intention to stand for president. Now, he boasts that the Imam gave him the presidency for a single task: provoking a "clash of civilisations" in which the Muslim world, led by Iran, takes on the "infidel" West, led by the United States, and defeats it in a slow but prolonged contest that, in military jargon, sounds like a low intensity, asymmetrical war.
In Ahmadinejad's analysis, the rising Islamic "superpower" has decisive advantages over the infidel. Islam has four times as many young men of fighting age as the West, with its ageing populations. Hundreds of millions of Muslim "ghazis" (holy raiders) are keen to become martyrs while the infidel youths, loving life and fearing death, hate to fight. Islam also has four-fifths of the world's oil reserves, and so controls the lifeblood of the infidel. More importantly, the US, the only infidel power still capable of fighting, is hated by most other nations.
According to this analysis, spelled out in commentaries by Ahmadinejad's strategic guru, Hassan Abassi, known as the "Dr Kissinger of Islam", President George W Bush is an aberration, an exception to a rule under which all American presidents since Truman, when faced with serious setbacks abroad, have "run away". Iran's current strategy, therefore, is to wait Bush out. And that, by "divine coincidence", corresponds to the time Iran needs to develop its nuclear arsenal, thus matching the only advantage that the infidel enjoys.
Moments after Ahmadinejad announced "the atomic miracle", the head of the Iranian nuclear project, Ghulamreza Aghazadeh, unveiled plans for manufacturing 54,000 centrifuges, to enrich enough uranium for hundreds of nuclear warheads. "We are going into mass production," he boasted.
The Iranian plan is simple: playing the diplomatic game for another two years until Bush becomes a "lame-duck", unable to take military action against the mullahs, while continuing to develop nuclear weapons.
Thus do not be surprised if, by the end of the 12 days still left of the United Nations' Security Council "deadline", Ahmadinejad announces a "temporary suspension" of uranium enrichment as a "confidence building measure". Also, don't be surprised if some time in June he agrees to ask the Majlis (the Islamic parliament) to consider signing the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Such manoeuvres would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director, Muhammad El-Baradei, and Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, to congratulate Iran for its "positive gestures" and denounce talk of sanctions, let alone military action. The confidence building measures would never amount to anything, but their announcement would be enough to prevent the G8 summit, hosted by Russia in July, from moving against Iran.
While waiting Bush out, the Islamic Republic is intent on doing all it can to consolidate its gains in the region. Regime changes in Kabul and Baghdad have altered the status quo in the Middle East. While Bush is determined to create a Middle East that is democratic and pro-Western, Ahmadinejad is equally determined that the region should remain Islamic but pro-Iranian. Iran is now the strongest presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, after the US. It has turned Syria and Lebanon into its outer defences, which means that, for the first time since the 7th century, Iran is militarily present on the coast of the Mediterranean. In a massive political jamboree in Teheran last week, Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the "Jerusalem Cause", which includes annihilating Israel "in one storm", while launching a take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank and Gaza.
Ahmadinejad has also reactivated Iran's network of Shia organisations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Yemen, while resuming contact with Sunni fundamentalist groups in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. From childhood, Shia boys are told to cultivate two qualities. The first is entezar, the capacity patiently to wait for the Imam to return. The second is taajil, the actions needed to hasten the return. For the Imam's return will coincide with an apocalyptic battle between the forces of evil and righteousness, with evil ultimately routed. If the infidel loses its nuclear advantage, it could be worn down in a long, low-intensity war at the end of which surrender to Islam would appear the least bad of options. And that could be a signal for the Imam to reappear.
At the same time, not to forget the task of hastening the Mahdi's second coming, Ahamdinejad will pursue his provocations. On Monday, he was as candid as ever: "To those who are angry with us, we have one thing to say: be angry until you die of anger!"
His adviser, Hassan Abassi, is rather more eloquent. "The Americans are impatient," he says, "at the first sight of a setback, they run away. We, however, know how to be patient. We have been weaving carpets for thousands of years."
• Amir Taheri is a former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran's largest daily newspaper, but now lives in Europe
Former Army Infantry Captain; 25 yrs as an NRA Certified Instructor; Avid practitioner of the martial art: KLIK-PAO.
April 18th, 2006 07:22 PM
The entire world needs to come to the realization that this Iran situation will not go away anytime soon....nor will the current war (which is has been raging in my estimation since the reemergence of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and resulting overthrow of the Shah of Iran) with these takfiri end quickly.
Last edited by srfl; April 18th, 2006 at 09:37 PM.
USAF: Loving Our Obscene Amenities Since 1947
April 18th, 2006 07:27 PM
To further chill your blood, which should be sluggish at best based on the above, an article by Nasser Karimi, AP, indicated Iran announced the presence of P-2 centrifuges on site rather than the less powerful P-1's. The P-2's allow for faster uranium enrichment - approximately four times faster than a P-1. This means the "gateway" of 54,000 cenrtrifuges is cut to 13,500.
The claim, made at a meeting Ahmadinejad had with students last week, has not been confirmed by reliable sources, however, the IAEA has believed for some time that Iran had the plans for the P-2.
April 18th, 2006 07:41 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Be ready, we're in the begining stages of WW3, and we can't lose this one either.
“The highest obligation and privilege of citizenship is that of bearing arms”. General George Patton—US Army
Vis et Veneratio
"So this is how democracy dies: to thunderous applause." Actress Natalie Portman as Padme in Star Wars Revenge of the Sith
April 18th, 2006 08:19 PM
Sadly, there are too many people with loud mouths that say "give diplomacy a chance, try everything else first", and, when that fails, they still lack the guts to do what is necessary. I think we have already done what we can peacefully, and arrogant talk such as this, just proves that point everyone knows - they don't want nuclear power plants, they want nuclear weapons, and they have no qualms against using them.
The only thing that stops bad guys with guns is good guys with guns. SgtD
April 18th, 2006 08:37 PM
Iran,Iran,Iran,......has everybody forgot about N. Korea. They HAVE nukes. What is your best guess as to why we haven't got tuff on them yet. Go ahead---say it. It's alright. -------
April 18th, 2006 09:22 PM
The world is very likely going to be a very different place in the near future. Sad, but true.
April 18th, 2006 09:25 PM
N. Korea is stable for now? Kim appears to be on the verge of insanity - I think they're both problems!
April 18th, 2006 09:34 PM
Originally Posted by RSSZ
Because Iran is more of a threat?
"I surrounded 'em"- Alvin York
"They're ain't many troubles that a man can't fix with seven hundred dollars and a thirty ought six"- Jeff Cooper
April 18th, 2006 09:38 PM
I can guarantee that no one has forgot about North Korea...at least folks in gov't and military circles......
USAF: Loving Our Obscene Amenities Since 1947
April 18th, 2006 09:52 PM
North Korea stalemates itself really. If they start the war, they kill untold millions of South Koreans and face huge International backlash. We probably won't ever go in there since they have the capability to destroy Seoul, so it just sits there, at a stalemate. Eventually their military will get tired of growing it's own food year round and wise up to get westernized. At least I hope so.
Personally, I hope Iran angers Israel enough to do something. If they get a nuke and Israel feels threatened, the Samson Option would be possible (they basically nuke the middle east if they think they're about to be destroyed). Besides, we've seen what's happened everytime the Middle East tries to fight Israel. They just give them land and surrender.
Honestly though, even with Arab support, all that really gives Iran is bodies. The technology to fight us isn't there. I imagine even Europe would support us in that war, although all we really need is the UK and Australia. I'm not saying occupy them because that's a bad idea, but we could definitely destroy their ability to fight us in a very short time period. Their recent missile tests were nice though, stuff we've had for about 20 years.
Sorry about the big tangent, worked theater level Intel for my 4 years and this kind of stuff interests me.
April 18th, 2006 10:02 PM
We cant undo the dammage we have done to our "reputation" with the rest of the world. Most countries dissagree with alot of our ideals and our way of live. There isnt much we can do about it. BUT what keeps thouse country allies is that WE are the super power in the world. without the US to protect our allies they are all at risk. But the next country that wants to try and sucker punch us like Mr. Bin Ladin needs to be sent back to the stone age! Im tired of our men and women dieing and citizens living in fear. Send a message to the world. If you attack us your country will no longer exist.
This is just my opinion and this statment doesnt represent the views of this club or its members.
I guess its time for my meds..
I carry because I care.
"An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject."
"Cling to the Father and His Holy name, and don't go riding on the Long Black Train" - Josh Turner
April 18th, 2006 10:07 PM
Personally, I love this "stuff" - it makes me think on a larger scale and higher level than my norm! Thanks folks!
April 18th, 2006 11:07 PM
I know I am out gunned so to speak and lord knows I have no use for Iran However the last time I checked they were still a nation of this world and have the right to do as they please. Watch them, warn them, make them aware of our displeasure try to talk them in to a new path but until they do something outside their country there is nothing we can do about what they are doing. Just think how we would react if the Russians had told us we could not have nukes and then sent gunboats up the Mississippi to make the point. However when they do mess up and they WILL mess up then we take them out forever leaving a nice glass lined self lighting parking lot where they lived.
Just my thoughts
Philip L. McCleary
Security via CCW
and a lot of practice
Dispatchers have the best jobs
we tell the police where to go and they have
to do it. Policy manual says so.
April 19th, 2006 08:47 AM
The problem is they've publicly called for the destruction of Israel. Both countries are members of the U.N. and that violates their mandate. That's why it really concerns the rest of the world. I'm a firm believer that they can do whatever they want too as long as they stay within the bounds of International law (they agreed to it by joining the U.N.). However, calling for the destruction of another country makes me think that they just don't need any kind of nuclear weapons.
Originally Posted by mcclearypl
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