Anyone Else See A Double Dip Recession on the Horizon?

Anyone Else See A Double Dip Recession on the Horizon?

This is a discussion on Anyone Else See A Double Dip Recession on the Horizon? within the Off Topic & Humor Discussion forums, part of the The Back Porch category; I worked in real estate here in Michigan until early this year when I put my license in holding. I still remember watching the trends ...

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Thread: Anyone Else See A Double Dip Recession on the Horizon?

  1. #1
    Member Array The Expert's Avatar
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    Anyone Else See A Double Dip Recession on the Horizon?

    I worked in real estate here in Michigan until early this year when I put my license in holding.

    I still remember watching the trends as the "Great Recession" washed over the nation. Here in MI that kicked off back in 2004, so there's been a full 6 years now of "bad times".

    Anyway, I watched the subprime mortgage mess pile up, and then watched as we headed into a recession as the second wave of "Alt-A" foreclosures starting hitting hard. From there we have seen the banks, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac push foreclosures back again and again which has done little but kick the inevitable foreclosure can down the street.

    I found it amusing that the media has tried to push the whole "slow shaky recovery" nonsense all this year.

    Recovery? I just wanted to remind those people saying that the state of the economy is invariably tied to HOUSING and the number of foreclosures has not slowed even though it's not every third story running on every news network anymore. Foreclosure numbers are just as bad, if not worse than at the beginning of this mess.

    Now you add in the stop on unemployment benefit extensions we see. One local paper says that 87,000 people here will be outty by the end of this week and another said 400,000+ will be as well by the end of the year.

    All the games they have played trying to game the system in the last two years has not fixed anything. The scary thing is...I'm worried they'll find a way to escalate one of the two current wars or start a new fight somewhere else.

    Anyway...anyone see 2011-2012 being a repeat of 2007-2008?

  2. #2
    Member Array Angry Bill's Avatar
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    Raising hand. I saw a bumpersticker recently that said "got stimulus?" and I laughed out loud. I thought, no, cauz I'm not an illegal construction worker building a frisbee golf course or a foreign investment firm.
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  3. #3
    Distinguished Member Array AutoFan's Avatar
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    I don't see any end to the current economic problems until the federal government stops messing with the economy. If they would stop passing laws that keep businesses from freaking out, the economy would recover. I don't see that happening until after the end of the lame duck session post this November's elections. If the Democrats retain a majority in the House and Senate, it will be longer still, like until 2012.

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  5. #4
    Member Array grandma4's Avatar
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    YES it's a grim fact.
    2 Chronicles 7:14 If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.

  6. #5
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    Array Bark'n's Avatar
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    I'd say it's not only highly likely... It's virtually a foregone conclusion.

    The government did little to fix it and practically everything to guarantee it happens again.

    I also believe it's being done by design!
    The worse Obama makes things, the more people will want to turn to the government for their total support.

    He has put up every roadblock he can think of, to keep the private sector from creating jobs of any kind in the private sector. I wonder why that is?
    Last edited by Bark'n; June 27th, 2010 at 04:05 PM. Reason: added bold type
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  7. #6
    Member Array Prophezine's Avatar
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    - 400,000 Unemployed Michigan Workers Lose Unemployment Benefits.

    - 1.5 Million Unemployed California Workers Will Lose Unemployment Benefits

    - Texas Completely Falling Apart: 18 Billion Needed Just To Break Even!

    These are just some quick headlines over the past several days. I am one of those who believes in maintaining a "prepper" lifestyle. Having a CC is part of that lifestyle.

    With all these people losing jobs, won't be able to pay bills, buy food. What do you think they will resort too?


    Back in 2001 Argentina suffered their economic collapse and the interesting thing is that the very same path Argentina took, this nation, the US is taking today.

    For those who are interested, I wrote an article a few weeks ago titled "Crisis Meltdown Greece - Sheep, Sheepdogs, and Wolves"

    What took place in Argentina, is also taking place in Greece this very moment. Spain, Italy and other countries are following suit.

    Now more than ever one needs to get their CC. They will need it. I hate to be a "doom and gloom" person, but man refuses to learn from his mistakes. We are making the same ones these other countries have and because of that we will see a rise in crime, drug & alcohol abuse, prostitution, robbery/burglary, kidnapping, rape, and murder.

    This is a fact.

    Those who have prepared now will have the upper hand and be able to transition. They will have already seen the writing on the wall for a while now.

    These people will be the sheepdogs.

    Here is what they have already done…

    They have purchased food and have a well stocked pantry - they see food as an investment.

    They have provided means to protect themselves, their family, their home with as many means as possible.

    They have chosen to be the "sheepdog" instead of being the "sheep."

    They blend into the crowd, walk with a purpose and completely alert to their surroundings before they even step outside their front door.

    They prepared knowing that this situation was coming because they have learned from history and seen the mistakes prior.

    Folks, there is nothing new under the sun.

    The key is will you take the time to learn and be a sheepdog or will you ignore it and become one of the sheep.

    The wolves will be out there and you will have to learn how to contend with them either way you look at it.

    Take the time now and learn from Greece, Zimbabwe, Argentina and the others. It is not a matter of "IF" it is only a matter of "WHEN."

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  8. #7
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    I have been sharing with my friends and neighbors..."Not if, but when!"
    Few have started preparing, I'm confused and concerned by their lack of any planning. Oh, well...
    Proverbs 27:12 says: “The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.”

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    If you notice that since the 1970's if oil gets above $80 a barrel (using current dollars adjust 1973 for inflation and it was up to $93) and stays there for a month or longer we have a recession.

    Our economy is reliant on cheap energy, and the energy is not going to be cheap anymore. Oil wells in Texas and Saudi Arabia gave a 100:1 return on investment. Deepwater off shore wells give anywhere from 4:1 to a 10:1 return.

    This alone will cause price to go up. I am not saying that we are running out of oil (there is a lot of oil still in the ground) I am just saying that that oil is harder to get to and there is more competition for it.

    Our economy runs on oil, we have to pay more for oil the slower our economy becomes and running huge deficits do not help.

    We have to make some choices in this country, and if we want to stay a World power then we are going to have to get our government spending in order, and cut the budget way down.

    This will slow the economy in the short term (10 - 20 years) but will strenghten us in the long run.
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  10. #9
    Senior Member Array Rmac58's Avatar
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    I agree with most all of the above.
    Sadly, the U.S. is heading towards third world status, mounting debt, a weakening dollar and a government run by big business.
    Soon there will no longer be a middle class, just the super rich and the poor that make the goods or shuffle paper to make the super rich, richer.

  11. #10
    VIP Member Array Supertac45's Avatar
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    I see millions being spent on useless projects in the local area here in Michigan's U.P. A complete collapse of the economy is almost impossible to avoid at this point. It's so bad up here, I've seen numerous foreclosers on people that still have good jobs, but just don't care anymore. I don't have an answer.
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  12. #11
    VIP Member Array obxned's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by retsupt99 View Post
    "Not if, but when!"
    Yup, and I see too many signs that it is already happening.
    "If we loose Freedom here, there's no place to escape to. This is the Last Place on Earth!" Ronald Reagan

  13. #12
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    I fear it, and sense some momentum in that direction. We need to be listening to T Boone Pickens on energy, and no one is.

    We need to be thinking about what Ross Perot said years and years ago on free trade and the big "sucking sound," but no one listened then and no one is thinking about that now.

    We could get our house in order, but will we?

    Years ago a physicist who got his 5 minutes of fame said roughly: "Wealth is unlike matter and energy which can not be created or destroyed. Wealth is damnably hard to create and ridiculously easy to destroy."

    In short, we have an uphill battle to re-create that which was too ridiculously easy to destroy.

    I think I have seen estimates of 10-20 TRILLION dollars of wealth having been destroyed in 2007-2008. It will take a couple of decades to undo that.

    The amazing thing is that we still have a somewhat functioning economy after that kind of shock.

  14. #13
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    The value of our hard earned money has slowly and systematically been stolen from us.

    Back when we were on the Gold standard a $50 Gold piece and a $50 dollar bill would both equally buy a beautiful high quality suit, a very nice silk necktie, and a fancy pair of high quality leather shoes & probably with some change left over.

    Today...a $50 Gold piece will still buy a high quality suit, a very nice silk necktie, and a fancy pair of high quality leather shoes.

    A $50 paper bill will probably still get you a nice silk tie but, forget the high quality leather shoes AND don't even think about the suit.

    Right now our unemployment rate is actually about 18% and not 10% - when you factor in the # of unemployed people who have stopped bothering to look for work and minus the number of temporary census workers that were fired and hired so that they could be counted 5 or 6 times as "a person" actually having found a job.

    Also: If Cap & Trade AKA Cap & TAX gets rammed through we are really dead.

  15. #14
    Ex Member Array JOHNSMITH's Avatar
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    Oh, it'll be worse than that. The policies of the Fed and the unwinnable game that is a fiat currency, our massive, unpayable debt, and the interventionist economic policies of the recent past are haunting us now; but what are they doing? Just digging a deeper holes with the same failed policies. Everything will collapse. "Recession" will end up being something we'll be wishing for by the time this is done.

  16. #15
    Member Array MoResident's Avatar
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    We are not going to get out of this anytime soon.

    Analysts are stating that the first two quarters of next year will be totally flat.
    This is based on the tax cuts expiring Jan 1st.
    Businesses are not taking write-offs currently (unless they legally have to) and are putting them off until next year because of the increased corporate tax rate starting in January 2011.

    This is opposite of what happened when the tax cuts were implemented several years ago.
    Companies waited to declare profits until the new and lower taxes were in place. The economy stayed flat until the lower tax rate went into affect.

    This is not rocket science.

    Wealth cannot be created by dividing it.

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