Quote Originally Posted by nedrgr21 View Post
Like I said:
"Researchers who announced the stunning arrest rates in 1967 were stumped by data deficiencies, such as their inability to tell whether the same person was being counted more than once -- an often overlooked point the researchers made in their own report. "

The newer study only accounted for 3 very small areas of the country - not statistically significant.

And there was a political motive behind the report: "That report's finding on arrest rates, while attention-grabbing, was ancillary to its main purpose of making law-and-order recommendations to President Johnson." So, given the political climate of the Cold War, there was probably pressure for the report to substantiate the need for more law enforcement, i.e. bigger budgets

Look at what going on at the time - the Red Scare, the Cold War, etc - it's easy to come up with estimates like that when witch hunts were the norm.

I chalk it up to being in the same group of statistical studies that gave us "over 3k children are killed by guns every year", "you are 93 times more likely to be killed by a gun in your own home", and any other studies quoted by VPC or the Brady Bunch.
If you think carefully about what it is saying, you will see that it makes sense. The report is claiming
that a male individual's life time chance of being arrested (for all possible reasons) is 50%. With the huge number of
crimes on the books for which an arrest might be possible, this doesn't seem unreasonable. The reports are
not saying 50% of men commit felonies or 50% of men commit serious misdemeanors. The reports are speaking
only of arrests for all causes, and not of either the nature of the accusation or conviction rate.

I totally disagree with the political point you tried to make regarding the LBJ motives or that this report
had a thing to do with the Cold War.