The Most Dangerous Cities in the US

This is a discussion on The Most Dangerous Cities in the US within the Off Topic & Humor Discussion forums, part of the The Back Porch category; Originally Posted by ericb327 Take a hard look at your statement and what your saying. Where I live it's predominantly white. Violent crimes here are ...

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  1. #31
    VIP Member Array Harryball's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericb327 View Post
    Take a hard look at your statement and what your saying.

    Where I live it's predominantly white. Violent crimes here are committed by whites. Am I to ASSume whites are more prone to violent crimes. Poverty and education being the factors.
    Did you read any of the links posted. I will assume by your statement that you didnt. When 3% is causing 49% of the murders, I would say the black community has an Issue. Its hard to say that and not be considered a racist. Im not a racist. So before you pass judgement, read and educate yourself
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  3. #32
    Distinguished Member Array ericb327's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harryball View Post
    Did you read any of the links posted. I will assume by your statement that you didnt. When 3% is causing 49% of the murders, I would say the black community has an Issue. Its hard to say that and not be considered a racist. Im not a racist. So before you pass judgement, read and educate yourself
    Y
    Respectfully declining to argue this, I will not waste time. I gave my opinion, you don't agree. That's all I need. You won't change and neither will I. What's the point of getting all worked up over it. There is nothing either of us can say to change each others minds. We both believe we are right.
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  4. #33
    VIP Member Array Harryball's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericb327 View Post
    Y
    Respectfully declining to argue this, I will not waste time. I gave my opinion, you don't agree. That's all I need. You won't change and neither will I. What's the point of getting all worked up over it. There is nothing either of us can say to change each others minds. We both believe we are right.
    You make a statement with out gathering the facts. Im not arguing with you either. Your refusal to even read the information put in front of you, shows me something about your character. Making an argument such as you did from an uneducated position both saddens and cracks me up at the same time.
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  5. #34
    Distinguished Member Array ericb327's Avatar
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    I have no doubt your info supports your thoughts. As I stated before its about poverty level, education and economic status. Do you think if you took ten whites and ten blacks from the same community that blacks would have a higher incidents of violent crime? You have no clue what my education level is. It doesn't bother me one bit that someone like you questions my character. I went through this in another thread when I first got here and an admin asked us to back off. The black community does have a problem, it includes bad leadership and racist white people. Here's a hint. People that are not racist, almost never have to proclaim they are not. Lucky for me my BS detector still works. I'm sad for you and our country for having to endure the crap for so long.
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  6. #35
    VIP Member Array Harryball's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericb327 View Post
    I have no doubt your info supports your thoughts. As I stated before its about poverty level, education and economic status. Do you think if you took ten whites and ten blacks from the same community that blacks would have a higher incidents of violent crime? You have no clue what my education level is. It doesn't bother me one bit that someone like you questions my character. I went through this in another thread when I first got here and an admin asked us to back off. The black community does have a problem, it includes bad leadership and racist white people. Here's a hint. People that are not racist, almost never have to proclaim they are not. Lucky for me my BS detector still works. I'm sad for you and our country for having to endure the crap for so long.
    LMAO that is ripe
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  7. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by KimBobTex View Post
    Chicago ... 228 murders so far in 2012 through 5/12, and not on the list?

    I have never seen Chicago on any of these top 10 lists. DC link running here on this topic.

    228 dead: That's the number of murders this year in Chicago.
    That's because anyone reporting on it is already dead...
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  8. #37
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    Im not really into believing stats too much, most of it is misinformation.imo
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  9. #38
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    I, for one, refuse to ignore what my eyes see day in and day out. Nope. Others are feee to spin whatever happiness they choose for themselves. But me, I'll stick to reality.
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  10. #39
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    stats and reality not the same where I live. There is more violence I know dont get reported, and if something does happen, everyone is gone long before the cops show up if at all. There was a shooting down the street few months back,I think it was non fatal shooting , so the cops actually did patrol around my area , I saw a cop car everyday at 5:50 pm drive down my street for about a week and a half and that was it, oh and there was just a shooting last wkend a homicide at a bar couple blocks away and rarely do I see cops around and when I do , its at 7-11 when me and the kids go get slurpees, a cop would be inside chit chatting with the clerk drinking a soda.
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  11. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by RayBar View Post
    Cities that are occupied by the most dangerous people in the Country. Interesting. I'd like to see a breakdown by ethnicity on the violent crimes.
    Here is the breakdown. Violent, dangerous people come from all ethnic classes, all races, all religions, from democrats, republicans, left and right, males, females, ages 8 to 80, etc., etc.
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  12. #41
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    Milwaukee WI -- Oh we can't "fudge" the reports

    (Police Chief Edward) Flynn's reputation has been built on his ability to reduce violent crime through a data-driven approach. He has touted department statistics that showed that violent crime had dropped for four consecutive years. So it came as a shock last month when an investigation found that since 2009, the department has reported more than 500 incidents to the FBI as "simple assaults" when those incidents should have been classified as the more serious "aggravated assaults."

    Had the department classified the incidents properly, the violent crime rate in Milwaukee actually would have increased by 1.1%, instead of falling 2.3% in the past two years, as Flynn previously had reported.

    Independent audit needed to restore MPD's credibility - JSOnline
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  13. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by walleye View Post
    Statistics aren't cumulative. If you have 1% chance of having a cardiac event this year, next year you don't have a 2% chance. You have a 1%. That stats on these cities apparently don't even state a time frame, but whatever the time frame is then the statistic is for that time frame only.

    Otherwise, if at birth the chance of dying that year were, say, 1% then by age 50 you'd have a 50% chance of dying and that is clearly crazy: one-half of 50yr olds quite obviously do not die in a given year.
    Just a quick point in the logic of your sentence - you're "disproving" my contention by stating a hypothetical ("if" the chance of dying were 1%) then using a real life observation ("one-half of 50yr olds obviously do not die in a given year") to disprove the hypothetical.

    But, in any case, you're reading my contention wrong - I'm saying that if your "class" had a true 1% chance of dying every year, by age 50, ~50% of your class would be dead, not that 50% of the survivors would die that year. If you really want to argue over the gnat's hairs, it would be closer to 40% over 50 years because of attrition (if your class had 1M at birth, 10,000 would die in the first year, leaving 990K, so the next year only 9.9K would die...).

    So, if I do delve into the mathematical weeds, my statement still holds true for non-fatal violent crimes. If that rate is 2.3% per year, over 75 years, a resident could expect to be victimized an average of 1.7 times. Obviously, some would get to 75 years unscathed, while others would be victimized several times.

    Regarding murder, if I gonkulate correctly using attrition, the cumulative effect of a .05% (.5/1000) murder rate over 75 years is 3.7%, or one in 27.

  14. #43
    Ex Member Array walleye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NH_Esau View Post
    Just a quick point in the logic of your sentence - you're "disproving" my contention by stating a hypothetical ("if" the chance of dying were 1%) then using a real life observation ("one-half of 50yr olds obviously do not die in a given year") to disprove the hypothetical.

    But, in any case, you're reading my contention wrong - I'm saying that if your "class" had a true 1% chance of dying every year, by age 50, ~50% of your class would be dead, not that 50% of the survivors would die that year. If you really want to argue over the gnat's hairs, it would be closer to 40% over 50 years because of attrition (if your class had 1M at birth, 10,000 would die in the first year, leaving 990K, so the next year only 9.9K would die...).

    So, if I do delve into the mathematical weeds, my statement still holds true for non-fatal violent crimes. If that rate is 2.3% per year, over 75 years, a resident could expect to be victimized an average of 1.7 times. Obviously, some would get to 75 years unscathed, while others would be victimized several times.

    Regarding murder, if I gonkulate correctly using attrition, the cumulative effect of a .05% (.5/1000) murder rate over 75 years is 3.7%, or one in 27.
    Look, find a graph on Google of violent crime which is historically always going lower and has since the modern-era of the late 19th Century, or compare it today with 30 yrs ago, very much lower. If violent crime or any phenomena were statistically cumulative we would have every phenomena getting MORE SO. There would also be different statistics for every year of life. Say the first year it was felt a person was actually exposed to violent crime was 12 yrs old. A 12 yr old chances of being a victim would be different than a 13 yr old's because the latter would have two years of combined chances of being a victim, And so on. So, even though the violent crime rate was dropping per year, say it starts as 10% a year, then 9%, the next, then 8% the next etc to 1%. Though it clearly is a rapidly declining crime rate it would be wickedly higher after a 10 year period for everyone alive after 10 years. So if 12 yr old had a 10% of being a victim, even though there was a decline of 10% a year, a 22 yr old would have 55% chance of being a victim. Or if you want to put it the way you state it in your post, 55% of
    22yr-olds would be dead from violent crime. And this would be true for 22yr-olds for the rest of their life even if the crime rate dropped to O% per year because their cumulative chances of death would stay the same, 55%. This is all clearly hogwash.

    If you have .0003 chance of being a victim of crime now, this year, and the crime rate doesn't change, then next year you have the same .0003. And that is way statistics work.

  15. #44
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  16. #45
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    I think one of the biggest factors in violent crime these days is culture, not income disparity.
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