Any one trade stocks/options? - Page 2

Any one trade stocks/options?

This is a discussion on Any one trade stocks/options? within the Off Topic & Humor Discussion forums, part of the The Back Porch category; I think Tommy assumed matiki was talking about daily percentage increases through day trading, rather than annual or other longer term increases through market analysis....

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  1. #16
    VIP Member Array Kerbouchard's Avatar
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    I think Tommy assumed matiki was talking about daily percentage increases through day trading, rather than annual or other longer term increases through market analysis.
    There are two sides to every issue: one side is right and the other is wrong, but the middle is always evil.

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  2. #17
    Member Array TommyGlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by matiki View Post
    I'd say you know little to nothing about options. If someone has market average gains on their stocks, lets throw out 10% as a number for example, then doubling that is making 20% on options. You think someone who is successful trading options can't make 20% a year? You also think you can live off of 20% a year? You must be wealthy already. I don't have enough saved to live off 20% a year. You should think carefully about what your saying.
    I hold a Master's degree in accounting and have been in the investment business for a decade. I understand options. I also understand compounding. It doesn't take long to get wealthy at 20-40% per year. If you've been doing this a while, you should already be rich. If you've only been doing this for a short time, then your sample size is not statistically valid, making your claim misleading.

  3. #18
    VIP Member Array matiki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerbouchard View Post
    I think Tommy assumed matiki was talking about daily percentage increases through day trading, rather than annual or other longer term increases through market analysis.
    Day trading is the Devil. Or rather, I'm jealous of those who can make it work.

    I suspect you're right. He may also make bigger long-position returns than me and seeing me talk about double and tripling those returns raised a red flag.

    I'm a market average trader most of the time... although last year and this year are looking great since I got lucky with OFI and EBS which I'm scaling out of now.
    "Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must." - The Duke of Wellington

  4. #19
    VIP Member Array matiki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyGlock View Post
    I hold a Master's degree in accounting and have been in the investment business for a decade. I understand options. I also understand compounding. It doesn't take long to get wealthy at 20-40% per year. If you've been doing this a while, you should already be rich. If you've only been doing this for a short time, then your sample size is not statistically valid, making your claim misleading.

    Is ten years good enough for you?

    Over the last ten years the dow is up about 34% and that's almost exactly how long I've been trading options (actually 11 years). I've only slightly beat that with my long-positions, and a little over doubled that with my options. My options are about 10%-20% of my portfolio. Compounding doesn't apply as simplistically as I believe you are thinking, since most of those returns (80-90%) are used to balance my portfolio.
    "Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must." - The Duke of Wellington

  5. #20
    Member Array TommyGlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by matiki View Post
    Is ten years good enough for you?

    Over the last ten years the dow is up about 34% and that's almost exactly how long I've been trading options (actually 11 years). I've only slightly beat that with my long-positions, and a little over doubled that with my options. My options are about 10%-20% of my portfolio. Compounding doesn't apply as simplistically as I believe you are thinking, since most of those returns (80-90%) are used to balance my portfolio.
    That's a lot of work just to underperform the variable annuities that I sell. Assuming your account isn't too small, you may want to ask a friend to refer you to someone who does this for a living.

  6. #21
    VIP Member Array matiki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyGlock View Post
    That's a lot of work just to underperform the variable annuities that I sell. Assuming your account isn't too small, you may want to ask a friend to refer you to someone who does this for a living.
    I should have expected. First you call me a liar, then you try to talk down to me. I'll go ahead and make my first use of the ignore feature here.
    "Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must." - The Duke of Wellington

  7. #22
    Senior Member Array dnowell's Avatar
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    As a business student - not a pro but I have studied somewhat -

    The people you're competing with have years of training, support staff, and millions of dollars in computer analysis tools. The amount of information needed to make good investment decisions is staggering.

  8. #23
    VIP Member Array Kerbouchard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnowell View Post
    As a business student - not a pro but I have studied somewhat -

    The people you're competing with have years of training, support staff, and millions of dollars in computer analysis tools. The amount of information needed to make good investment decisions is staggering.
    That's something I learned from an old crusty prior enlisted CMDR...he invested in Real Estate but he said he was too dumb to figure out where he should buy property(he was anything but dumb, but that's another story).

    Anyway, since he didn't have the money and resources to figure it out on his own, he would go on Walmart's website and find out what cities they were going to build a Walmart...then he would buy a house in that town.

    He always said, "They have the resources and money to figure out what places are growing...who am I to argue with that?"

    He hasn't lost money, yet.
    There are two sides to every issue: one side is right and the other is wrong, but the middle is always evil.

    http://miscmusings.townhall.com/

    Who is John Galt?

  9. #24
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    Oh my gosh

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyGlock View Post
    That's a lot of work just to underperform the variable annuities that I sell. Assuming your account isn't too small, you may want to ask a friend to refer you to someone who does this for a living.
    Oh my gosh, here comes the pitch. Variable annuities. The one investment to run away from--in most situations.

    I don't think I have ever read or heard (on tv or radio) a good thing about these instruments. I'm sure they do have their place; but it is a limited one.

    I think for someone who has the emotional fortitude, that is, the emotional ability to accept the risk and the financial stability to absorb losses, options and active trading can be rewarding. I lack both attributes and mostly stick with index funds, mutual funds, and a half dozen stocks where I feel they have underperformed and will have to go up or be bought out in a takeover. I have not been particularly successful with my strategy, but it is one that makes sense to me.

    I want to offer one piece of information for all who think the stock market has given historically good returns. It all depends on the time frame you look at.

    To be specific, in approximately 1997-98, I took the comments about
    "irrational exuberance" seriously, and stopped adding new money to the S&P Index. After the decade which has followed, the market is now almost exactly where it was. In fact, it is about 200 points below its all time high. So much for the claimed annual 10% returns, whatever.

    And I think that is a pretty fair indicator of where our overall economy is. STAGNANT. Had the S&P (overall economy) grown by just 2% per year compounded, the index would be way above where it is now.

    Personally, I think the big boys have been ripping off the ordinary investor, the private pension funds and the state controlled pension funds, and diverting profits to their private gain. Enron was the tip of an iceberg and we have not looked at the rest of the beast. SEC is totally asleep at the wheel.

    So, though I do not speculate in land, or buy land for the long term, I think that is a pretty good idea.

  10. #25
    VIP Member Array matiki's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerbouchard View Post
    That's something I learned from an old crusty prior enlisted CMDR...he invested in Real Estate but he said he was too dumb to figure out where he should buy property(he was anything but dumb, but that's another story).

    Anyway, since he didn't have the money and resources to figure it out on his own, he would go on Walmart's website and find out what cities they were going to build a Walmart...then he would buy a house in that town.

    He always said, "They have the resources and money to figure out what places are growing...who am I to argue with that?"

    He hasn't lost money, yet.
    I agree with both of you, I take a certain masochistic pleasure through investing some of my money - if I didn't enjoy it I'd leave it all for others to do for me.
    "Wise people learn when they can; fools learn when they must." - The Duke of Wellington

  11. #26
    Member Array TommyGlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnowell View Post
    As a business student - not a pro but I have studied somewhat -

    The people you're competing with have years of training, support staff, and millions of dollars in computer analysis tools. The amount of information needed to make good investment decisions is staggering.
    Actually, the thing that kills more investors is the fact that they use their emotions to drive their investment decisions - fear and greed. They panic when prices are falling and they get greedy when prices have already risen. They buy high and sell low.

    Look at Matiki. He's so committed to thinking that he's doing a great job that he'd rather ignore someone who does this professionally than face the proposition that he has worked his butt off to not even perform as well as someone else who does it with very little effort. I've seen people lose a lot of money in order to avoid harm to their egos. Freaks me out.

  12. #27
    Member Array TommyGlock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hopyard View Post
    Oh my gosh, here comes the pitch. Variable annuities. The one investment to run away from--in most situations.

    I don't think I have ever read or heard (on tv or radio) a good thing about these instruments. I'm sure they do have their place; but it is a limited one.

    I think for someone who has the emotional fortitude, that is, the emotional ability to accept the risk and the financial stability to absorb losses, options and active trading can be rewarding. I lack both attributes and mostly stick with index funds, mutual funds, and a half dozen stocks where I feel they have underperformed and will have to go up or be bought out in a takeover. I have not been particularly successful with my strategy, but it is one that makes sense to me.

    I want to offer one piece of information for all who think the stock market has given historically good returns. It all depends on the time frame you look at.

    To be specific, in approximately 1997-98, I took the comments about
    "irrational exuberance" seriously, and stopped adding new money to the S&P Index. After the decade which has followed, the market is now almost exactly where it was. In fact, it is about 200 points below its all time high. So much for the claimed annual 10% returns, whatever.

    And I think that is a pretty fair indicator of where our overall economy is. STAGNANT. Had the S&P (overall economy) grown by just 2% per year compounded, the index would be way above where it is now.

    Personally, I think the big boys have been ripping off the ordinary investor, the private pension funds and the state controlled pension funds, and diverting profits to their private gain. Enron was the tip of an iceberg and we have not looked at the rest of the beast. SEC is totally asleep at the wheel.

    So, though I do not speculate in land, or buy land for the long term, I think that is a pretty good idea.
    I'm definitely not here to pitch anything. I will point out that telling people to run away from something that you know very little about sounds silly, especially since, per your admission, that you haven't been particularly successful doing what you do. Since you decided to slam me, I will share that my VA clients have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 40% on an average annual basis. I'm at a loss to find a reason to run from that, but I respect your right to do so.

  13. #28
    VIP Member Array David in FL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dnowell View Post
    As a business student - not a pro but I have studied somewhat -

    The people you're competing with have years of training, support staff, and millions of dollars in computer analysis tools. The amount of information needed to make good investment decisions is staggering.
    If I may......

    Find high quality, well managed, no load mutual funds and you can take advantage of the training, support staff, and analysis tools to which you refer.

    Diversify, review and rebalance at least semi-annually, and make consistent contributions to take advantage of dollar-cost-averaging and you will do well.

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