Group Think! Duration of SHTF!

This is a discussion on Group Think! Duration of SHTF! within the Off Topic & Humor Discussion forums, part of the The Back Porch category; Groups (smart ones, that is) usually develop better answers working as a group. So, here goes: A SHTF Scenario encompasses a tremendous number of variables ...

View Poll Results: What is the Duration of the SHTF Scenario You Plan For?

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  • Less Than a Week

    14 15.91%
  • One to Three Weeks

    39 44.32%
  • A Month or Two

    14 15.91%
  • More than Two Months

    14 15.91%
  • Whoops! I Forgot to Plan!

    7 7.95%
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Thread: Group Think! Duration of SHTF!

  1. #1
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    Group Think! Duration of SHTF!

    Groups (smart ones, that is) usually develop better answers working as a group. So, here goes:

    A SHTF Scenario encompasses a tremendous number of variables ("the event", geography, environment, weather, population, duration, etc.) and somebody has probably spent a least a bazillion dollars studying this, so here it is:

    What is the Duration of the SHTF scenario you plan for?

    I can break it down in the following way:

    A Local Event of "small" magnitude (ice storm, tornado, blizzard, etc.) that causes power interruption for some "short" duration, say one to two, maybe three days. Easy to plan for, and probably likely to occur at some point in time dependent on your location.

    A Regional Event of larger proportions (hurricane, regional sized blizzard causing regional level blackouts, etc.) that might last from a week or two to a month or so....Harder to plan for, likelihood is more geography dependent and lower than a local event.

    A Regional Event of large proportions ("Homestead" sized hurricane, regional sized blizzards causing regional level blackouts, etc.) that might last from a month or more. Harder to plan for, likelihood is more geography dependent, less likely.

    A Regional Event of huge proportions ("Katrina", a Richter scale 8 or 9 earthquake in LA or SF or SD or all three) that might last from months to years. Very harder to plan for, likelihood is more geography dependent and likelihood lower.

    A National Event: Is this threat existent? I believe so....an outbreak of disease - a pandemic. Biological weapons....There are some scenarios, yes, but the likelihood is difficult to predict, although dependent on the scenario.

    Here's my short answer:

    Here: Event probably weather related. One to seven days. We have enough food and water for a month or more. Ammo and weapon supply low (LOL! It always is - can there be enough? ). Food - check; clothing - check; medicines - check, first aid - check; dog food - check; firewood - check.

    So: Do you plan for a SHTF? What is the Duration of the event you plan for? Why? What have your preparations included?

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  3. #2
    VIP Member Array Ti Carry's Avatar
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    I am in the process (as can be found in another thread) to be prepared for as much as a year to run as normal with power, food, water, supplies, communications, ammo, etc.

    "Homesteading" and being prepared is a need! the potential for something to be bad for more than a couple weeks is pretty rare I would think but you never know.

    I don't have to worry about hurricanes or things like that but just the other day my county got slammed with tornados and bad weather and missed my location by a hair from being real bad. Other areas near me where flattened by the storm.

    I also feel I need to be prepared for an earth quake, I live near the neumadred fault line and that can't be good when/if she decides to get pissed.


    Ti.
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  4. #3
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    I generally keep enough food on hand for a couple of weeks...no problem on the ammo

    My SHTF plan is a little different than most...I live across the street from my workplace: a major hospital in the Denver area. I'm the lead boiler operator there, and will be the one keeping the lights and heat on as long as possible. We have enough #2 diesel fuel on hand to run generators for a couple of weeks without re-supply...
    "I surrounded 'em"- Alvin York

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  5. #4
    Distinguished Member Array 4my sons's Avatar
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    My plan is mostly mental right now, As far as fuel for the Generator, I have enough vehicles running around regularly, I should be able to get gas from them to last several weeks. To optimize that, I would fill up the freezer with water to make Ice and turn everything off during the daylight hours. Allowing the ice to maintain the cold, we heat with wood, living in the woods, got plenty of that. Food is usually pretty stocked in the pantry and freezer. If we know something is coming, we fill up the tubs with water for the toilets, Nice thing about septic system. The homes are close enough that people will hear you if in trouble, but spread out enough that you can still run out to the car to get something you forgot without anyone seeing your PJ's. Hey don't laugh, they are bright yellow with big smiley faces, My niece gave them to me for Christmas, Pants only, that's enough. Trust me. as far as firearms, I don't think where we are at, we will need to do more than have them ready.


    My main concern is getting home in the event that SHTF while we are at work. Not in the city, but could get caught in a mass exodus pretty easy. For that, CCW is on the ready for anyone trying to take my car. I'll try to help anyone I can, but the guy with the tire iron in his hand might get a little lead poisoning.
    "fundamental principle of American law that a government and its agents are under no general duty to provide public services, such as police protection, to any individual citizen." [Warren v. District of Columbia,(D.C. Ct. of Ap., 1981)]
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  6. #5
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    I need a generator......power will definitely go out in my area as it has in surrounding areas during the previous hurricane seasons.
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  7. #6
    Senior Member Array Tom357's Avatar
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    I plan for two weeks. If an event stretches beyond one week, then either the end is in sight, or I'm making long-term plans appropriate to the situation.
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  8. #7
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    I see most of us are hitting the 2-3 week option.

    Thing is there is a sorta sliding scale I see here - it would not be - start - SHTF - stop!!

    The period of greatest concern is the max'd out part - the most severe, and that is the most important to try and plan for. After that while things may be grim, there could be some partial return to normalcy or at least relative stability.

    In fact probably the first week is the most critical - when food and water are essential, some power options and - a means to protect these things from marauders.

    As time goes on there should be an exponential decrease in problem level, albeit relative.
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  9. #8
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    One To Three Weeks

    It looks like 1 to 3 weeks is ruling the day here.
    That is far better than average and way better than no planning at all.

    Those living in Bad Weather Prone areas should make sure that they at least prepare for two weeks.
    Fresh drinking water is a must!
    Buy GALLONS of distilled water & shelve them.
    You can store distilled water forever.

    QKShooter Prediction:
    We are headed into a years long Earth Cycle of freakish terrible and dangerous weather.
    That would include severe killer storms ~ tornadoes, hurricanes, power outages due to storms. Irregular, Abnormal, weather for at least the next few years.
    Call me Bonkers if you want to but, I feel it coming in my guts.
    I am not a paranoid panicky sort of guy...but, Bad, Strange, Weather Events are a comin' to the U.S.A.

    Pennsylvania is actually one of the safest Natural Disaster States.
    We usually have no Earthquakes, coastal flooding, Tornadoes or Hurricanes but, I intend on stocking a bit more these days regardless.

    I voted 1 to 3 weeks but, (Much Closer To 3) ~ I could probably go a tiny bit longer than that for three adults and the dog.

    And then factoring in that (if push ever came to shove) we could always eat the dog...slightly longer than that.
    Just kidding Beulah! We're not going ever to turn you into canine jerky.



    Food storage is SOOOO easy these days with a little bit of forethought and pre~planning before the trip to the supermarket.
    So many everyday wholesome SuperMarket Shelf packaged foods have super long expiration dates. Just rotate them in and out & you're good to go for at least 1 to 3 weeks concerning food.

  10. #9
    Distinguished Member Array 4my sons's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=QKShooter]And then factoring in that (if push ever came to shove) we could always eat the dog...slightly longer than that.
    Just kidding Beulah! We're not going ever to turn you into canine jerky.




    QK, That thaught crossed my mind too, I'm pretty sure the goat and the duck would go first though.
    "fundamental principle of American law that a government and its agents are under no general duty to provide public services, such as police protection, to any individual citizen." [Warren v. District of Columbia,(D.C. Ct. of Ap., 1981)]
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  11. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by QKShooter

    We are headed into a years long Earth Cycle of freakish terrible and dangerous weather.
    That would include severe killer storms ~ tornadoes, hurricanes, power outages due to storms. Irregular, Abnormal, weather for at least the next few years.
    Call me Bonkers if you want to but, I feel it coming in my guts.
    I am not a paranoid panicky sort of guy...but, Bad, Strange, Weather Events are a comin' to the U.S.A.

    And then factoring in that (if push ever came to shove) we could always eat the dog...slightly longer than that.
    Just kidding Beulah! We're not going ever to turn you into canine jerky.



    Food storage is SOOOO easy these days with a little bit of forethought and pre~planning before the trip to the supermarket.
    So many everyday wholesome SuperMarket Shelf packaged foods have super long expiration dates. Just rotate them in and out & you're good to go for at least 1 to 3 weeks concerning food.
    Weather - I've felt that too - but it felt "strange", so I hadn't really verbalized it to anyone. Yep!

    Beulah: You can come live with us - we won't "et" ya!

    Food storage: Quick story. Folks in DFW panic a lot over stupid things. Folks in Plano actually emptied frozen food lockers at stores for the "Y2K" bust that never came. What's wrong with THAT picture....say...no power...no freezer...food SPOILS!

  12. #11
    Member Array OldDawg's Avatar
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    Well I am one of those that have planned for long term, I currently dont trust the world situation & have planned that I will be responsible for my own, We have cached weapons, ammo & food that will supply 10 people for an extended length of time, Dried beans & such will store for long periods. There are all kinds of books available about stocking food & supplies from Paladin press..... Also remember alot of Vetinary medication, ( Antibiotics) & such can be stored for human use. Do some research & start stocking up.. I havent put enuff away to keep you all fed... I wish i could but some of ya might starve...

    Also remember that as far as firearms .. odd ball calibers probably will be hard to come by, Unless you reload yourself. So try to keep your main battle weapons to standard calibers.........

    If you want more info about long term planning & caching, email me.
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  13. #12
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    If the scenario is one that I don't have to leave my residence, I'd say I'm in good shape for up to a month. I have 50 gallons of Sparkletts water stored (which gets recycled), a couple of cases of propane canisters for light, cooking, etc. and enough canned and dehydrated food for at least that long.

    Ammo and firearms are, of course, not a problem.
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  14. #13
    Senior Member Array madmike's Avatar
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    For me, a generator is on my "must buy" list!

    My water comes from a deep well, so power is required to keep the supply coming. (Deep well, hand pump will NOT work.) I'm not sure how practical it will be to keep more than a few days of fuel on-hand, however.

    My stove is gas fueled, so I've considered a generator that will run from the same large tank, but a re-fill would probably be impossible to get when the SHTF. . .

    So, I guess I'm back to gas or diesel.

    If I find and install a tank large enough for a 10 or 12 KW generator to run for 2 or 3 weeks, how would I maintain it? Keep adding stabilizers, keeping the tank full at all times, or rig the tank where I can fuel up the car and truck from it, and replace the gas in the storage tank as it is used?

    Any practical suggestions on what to do about this?

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  15. #14
    Distinguished Member Array snowdoctor's Avatar
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    This really has me thinking of my current plan. I think I need to shore up a few loose ends. I don't have enough H2O stored and I need to test my generator more....hmmm....now my mind is racing. I will get back to you all soon. If you have a good book or a list you would like to pass on, I would appreciate it.. ..you can pm me if you want.
    hmmm. I also have two small kids. 3 and 1....so that puts another spin on things....This is going to take some deep thought.
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  16. #15
    Senior Member Array gregarat's Avatar
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    I have a huge box of M.R.E's, several gallons of water, tools(in truck and at home), nylon rope several with tarps, med kit (one at home one for my truck), ammo. I want to get one of thoughs shake&charge flashlights. A generator isnt in my buget.

    Speaking of generators.
    My freinds grandpa was hit by a Florida huricane last year. He had a generator in his shed....The shed was destroyed during the huricane.

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