This is a discussion on Criminal Mind / Deterrence within the Open Carry Issues & Discussions forums, part of the Defensive Carry Discussions category; The successful criminal doesn't get caught. (Some might say he gets elected to political office, but that's a different topic.) The jails, and the streets, ...
The successful criminal doesn't get caught. (Some might say he gets elected to political office, but that's a different topic.)
The jails, and the streets, are full of the unsuccessful criminals. They're the ones who get interviewed for articles (and books) like the ones mentioned above.
Victim selection for the unsuccessful criminal probably goes something like this:
"I think you got it, I want it, I'm gonna take it."
With open carry, if a gun is the thing he wants, the criminal OODA loop is shortened by one third. "You DO got it, I'm gonna take it."
I get a chuckle out of folks that say the No Gun Zones tell the criminal that "everyone in this restaurant/bar/bank/ whatever is unarmed... it is full of easy targets... I will rob it!" IMO, if he's lucky (the criminal), he has the edumication of any other predator... he runs on instinct. "I Need, I try to get." He doesn't pay any attention to (or can't even read and comprehend) the sign.
In most cases, there is no REAL conscious thought about what the potential consequences will be.
Some criminals of the "middle class" (the ones that do get caught once in a while, or at least not every time), probably do some cursory risk assessment, "is any body likely to be home... am I likely to meet resistance... will anybody see me?" Now the risk/reward thing comes into play... "If I get away with it, will it have been worth the risk?" (These are the ones that get interviewed, because they are somewhat able to put together an understandable response to an interview question)
Now, back to the topic at hand. Open Carry as a deterrent. No successful criminal is going to go after you (at least not out in the open). Some (lower) "middle class" criminals may decide the risk/reward thing is in their favor, if they think they are cunning enough to catch you unawares...
That leaves the "low lifes" Their OODA loop is very small: "I want, I get." These are the dangerous ones. Flashing that gun is like flashing a Rolex... they want, they get. Somebody's gonna get hurt here folks.... probably the BG, maybe you too.
The odds of dying in a firearms assault is one in 314 according to the National Safety Council. I don't know if you increase those chances by open carrying or not. But I choose not to advertise to any class of criminal... I carry concealed.
Think of it this way... Have you ever watched the show Criminal Minds? If you wanted a gun and the only way you could get one was to take it from one of the BAU members, which one would you select as the target?
Every one of them is carrying... except maybe the blond analyst in he dress on the left... only one is open carrying, and he's the Dr. (PHD, type) on the far right...
It could be worse!