Check out this poll

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  1. #1
    VIP Member Array Crowman's Avatar
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    Thumbs down Check out this poll

    US Can Stop Mass Murders By Adopting Canadian Gun Laws
    Daily Kos: US Can Stop Mass Murders By Adopting Canadian Gun Laws
    "One of the greatest delusions in the world is the hope that the evils in this world are to be cured by legislation."
    --Thomas B. Reed, American Attorney

    Second Amendment -- Established December 15, 1791 and slowly eroded ever since What happened to "..... shall not be infringed."

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  3. #2
    VIP Member Array Sticks's Avatar
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    Hammer that poll everyone!

    The USA has 9.036 +/- times the population of Canada, yet their murder rate according to the poll is 1/6 of ours, so if my early morning math is correct, they have 1.05 times the gun related homicides that we do per capita - and they have very strict gun laws.

    Please someone correct my math if I am in error.
    Sticks

    Grasseater // Grass~eat~er noun, often attributive \ˈgras-ē-tər\
    A person who is incapable of independent thought; a person who is herd animal-like in behavior; one who cannot distinguish between right and wrong; a foolish person.
    See also Sheep

  4. #3
    Distinguished Member Array Paymeister's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sticks View Post
    Hammer that poll everyone!

    The USA has 9.036 +/- times the population of Canada, yet their murder rate according to the poll is 1/6 of ours, so if my early morning math is correct, they have 1.05 times the gun related homicides that we do per capita - and they have very strict gun laws.

    Please someone correct my math if I am in error.
    The term 'rate' means 'per capita' (or per 100 capita or per 1000 capita) - it's the number of events per number of population. So the population size is already incorporated in the number.

    If we have 9.036x the population of Canada and their murder rate is 1/6 of ours, the math says we have 9.036 x 6 or 54 times their raw number of murders. We also may have 54 times their cancer cases - our population size accounts for nine times their cases alone, not to mention the difference in sunlight exposure or industrialization. Raw numbers of cases doesn't take you anywhere: the rate is the number one can use for comparisons because it factors in population size. And if the 1/6 number is right, that is certainly interesting.

    But there are a whole lot of what are called 'confounding variables' - other factors which mess up one's conclusions. Canada is also colder: one could say that because our country is warmer, we have more murders. Or it's because we have a higher population density, or too few moose to keep us calm, or who knows what. And then there's the interactions: maybe if we were colder AND had more moose it would work, but only if one had both. It gets tricky.

    I would put my money on population density, frankly. Humans being by nature self-centered and short-sighted, the closer you pack 'em, the more friction you get.

    One COULD say this is due to lack of access to guns. And one COULD say that if we had had similar laws in place here from time immemorial we might have a better rate than we do. Problem is, guns are here and will stay in the hands of the bad guys. Once the bad guys are armed, new and more restrictive laws will affect only good guys. Sure, there might be a trickle-down effect over the course of centuries (my deer rifle is 106 years old), but that's not the road one would want to take.

    Maybe we should all start wearing parkas or keeping moose nearby.

    -Paymeister, with a Master's in Epidemiology
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    New Member Array johnnuke's Avatar
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    Sorry, but you do have something of a math error (statistic error actually). The article referenced the murder rate per 100,000 guns while you seem to be using murder per 100,000 people. You are making an apples-to-oranges comparison vice an apples-to-apples comparison.

    That being said, their statistics are meaningless in the context of gun control without a comparison to murder rates or violent crime rates) by some other type of weapon. I don't have numbers for Canada, but I have written a paper on violent crime in the UK compared to the US. I used the UK because of their very stringent gun control laws. The Executive Summary is as follows:

    There has been a lot of discussion lately about placing additional restrictions or outright bans on various types of firearms in the US. Oftentimes, the UK, with their in effective “ban” on handguns and their low murder rate, is held up as the model of gun control. It is suggested that by reducing the number of guns in the U.S. that violent crime in the U.S. could be reduced. But a little digging turns up facts that indicate otherwise.
    I used the following 2 sources for the majority of this analysis. The source numbers have been adjusted to the appropriate units (% or rates per 100,000 population) when needed so that the comparisons are “apple-to-apples”, but the underlying values are unchanged. I didn’t skew anything to support a given conclusion.

    -http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb1011/hosb1011snr?view=Binary
    -http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls

    Violent Crime
    In the U.S., 0.4% of the population were victims of violent crime during 2010. In the U.K., 3.1% were victims of violent crime during 2010. Of note, the U.S. numbers also include rape while the U.K. numbers do not, thus driving the U.S. percentage to a higher value.

    Sexual Assault
    In the U.S., 0.16% of women 12 and older were victims of sexual assault during 2010. In the U.K., 2.5% of women were victims of sexual assault during the same time. Additional statistic data for the sexual assault numbers came from Statistics | RAINN | Rape, Abuse and Incest National Network.

    Assault Weapons
    Oh how I hate that term. Anyway, the “Assault Weapon” ban went into effect in 1994 and expired in 2004. The murder and non-negligent homicide rates in the U.S. were decreasing before the ban, and continued to decrease after the ban expired. It is safe to say that there may have been some cause for this reduction other than the ban on “Assault Weapons”.

    Mass Killings
    12 people were killed in Aurora, Co. in July of 2012. Gun control advocates will say tighter gun laws could have stopped it. The British put their handgun ban into effect in 1997. In 2010, 12 people were killed in the Cumbria shootings by a gunman with a .22 rifle and a shotgun.

    Murder
    The U.S. has a murder rate of 4.8 per 100,000 population and the U.K. has a murder rate of 1.6 per 100,000 population. This would seem to indicate that their gun ban is working, but……
    The following sources:
    Murder victims, suspects share familiar traits - Baltimore Sun
    Criminals target each other, trend shows - USATODAY.com
    PolitiFact Wisconsin | 85 percent of shooting suspects and victims in Milwaukee have "extensive criminal record," police chief says
    Homicide numbers paint stark picture of violence in black neighborhoods - Chicago Tribune
    New Orleans Police Release Criminal Records Of Victims
    Murder, Inc. - Metropolis
    Serpas releases arrest records of homicide victims*|*New Orleans' Multicultural News Source | The Louisiana Weekly
    More Than A Third Of 2011 NYC Murders Took Place In Brooklyn (And Other Interesting Stats): Gothamist
    The Spokesman-Review - Google News Archive Search
    http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...03.html?&wired

    discuss the actual background of the murder victims in the U.S. As it so happens, an average of 80% of all murder victims have extensive criminal backgrounds. I got the 80% by averaging the numbers called out in the articles listed above. And while the articles do not directly call out a connection, it is not much of a stretch to conclude that their murder was somehow connected to their criminal activities. (Yes, the killing of Harry "Mike" Ainsworth was different, but he one out of thousands. Google “good Samaritan killing” if you don’t know what I’m talking about)

    So….taking the 4.8 per 100,000 and removing the 80% that were probably killed due to their criminal activities gives 0.96 per 100,000. That’s not too bad considering the world wide rate for something as preventable as drowning is 6.8 per 100,000. (http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/reso...tSheetWHO2.pdf)

    Bottom Line
    Currently the U.S. has lower rates of violent crime than the U.K., lower rates of sexual assault than the U.K., and while our murder rate may be higher, 80% of those being killed are folks we are probably better off without. So if the large number of guns in the U.S. results in less violent crime, less sexual assault, and more repeat offender, convicted felons being removed from our cities, I think I’ll go buy another gun.
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  6. #5
    VIP Member Array Sticks's Avatar
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    Gun related homicides in Canada are about 1/6 as common as they are in the U.S.
    It does not say rate, just 1/6 as common as us. Very ambiguous, and give the anti's propensity to tweak the wording and numbers to suit their needs, I'd wager that it is a bit more than 1/6th. Their gun ban has been in effect for, what, 20+ years? I suspect they are using current numbers.
    Sticks

    Grasseater // Grass~eat~er noun, often attributive \ˈgras-ē-tər\
    A person who is incapable of independent thought; a person who is herd animal-like in behavior; one who cannot distinguish between right and wrong; a foolish person.
    See also Sheep

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    Distinguished Member Array Paymeister's Avatar
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    Good call, Sticks.

    Homicide rate in Canada for 2006: 1.6 per 100,000. Homicide rate in USA for 2005: 5.6 per 100,000; for 2007: 5.7 per 100,000.

    Ours is higher, certainly, but more on the order of 3.5 times, not 6 times. And it would be intriguing to see it split out by firearms vs non-firearms.

    Edited: found the data. Well, found the Wikipedia article, anyway, which is probably rigorous enough for our discussion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ted_death_rate

    Firearm deaths:

    US: 9.00 per 100,000
    Canada: 4.78 per 100,000

    Our firearms related death rate is 9/4.78 = 1.88 times that of Canada's, if one accepts Wikipedia data.


    Homicide rate involving firearms.
    US: 2.98 per 100,000
    Canada 0.76 per 100,000

    2.98/0.76 = our firearms homicide rate is 3.92 times that of Canada (since the current question is murder, not suicide or accidents)

    The NEXT question would be... if one splits out the bad-guy-offing-bad-guy data, what are the rates?

    I'm willing to bet that here, bad guys kill bad guys with guns more often than such occurs in Canada, so when looking at bad guys killing good guys, our numbers would improve.
    Last edited by Paymeister; December 17th, 2012 at 07:24 AM. Reason: Found more data

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    Pretty silly poll, I voted no about ten times, moved it from 27% to 30% in about 1 minute.
    The stupidity of some people NEVER ceases to amaze me.

    G19 AIWB

  9. #8
    Distinguished Member Array Paymeister's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miller_man View Post
    Pretty silly poll, I voted no about ten times, moved it from 27% to 30% in about 1 minute.
    Gasp! You mean the poll allows multiple votes? And the sampling: surely they did their random sampling to ensure a representative study group?!?

    My world is shattered.

  10. #9
    VIP Member Array Sticks's Avatar
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    Well, one would think that after 20 years of a gun ban, their 1/6 number should be accurate. Clearly something is not working up there.

    And as usual, there is the Police shootings that get lopped in with the numbers, as well as suicides (which is pointless, they are gonna take their own life one way or another), not to mention justifiable SD shootings ~ albeit a low number.

    We tried it here once before (AWB), and our own Govt studies showed that there was no discernible decrease in firearm related crimes during that time.

    I have a dream that one day we will learn from the past.
    Sticks

    Grasseater // Grass~eat~er noun, often attributive \ˈgras-ē-tər\
    A person who is incapable of independent thought; a person who is herd animal-like in behavior; one who cannot distinguish between right and wrong; a foolish person.
    See also Sheep

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    156 votes, 49 NOs.
    Retired USAF E-8. Remember: You're being watched!
    Paranoia strikes deep, into your heart it will creep. It starts when you're always afraid... "For What It's Worth" Buffalo Springfield

  12. #11
    VIP Member Array Sticks's Avatar
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    It's early, well catch and pass them like we always do.
    Sticks

    Grasseater // Grass~eat~er noun, often attributive \ˈgras-ē-tər\
    A person who is incapable of independent thought; a person who is herd animal-like in behavior; one who cannot distinguish between right and wrong; a foolish person.
    See also Sheep

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    VIP Member Array zacii's Avatar
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    Re: Check out this poll

    How about we take all the justified homicides out of the equation, and run the numbers again?

    Just sayin'



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    Trust in God and keep your powder dry

    "A heavily armed citizenry is not about overthrowing the government; it is about preventing the government from overthrowing liberty. A people stripped of their right of self defense is defenseless against their own government." -source

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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miller_man View Post
    Pretty silly poll, I voted no about ten times, moved it from 27% to 30% in about 1 minute.
    Which points out how pointless such polls can really be.

    Of course, they can change sentiment, when held up as an example of what people ostensibly want.

    Gotta love polls.
    Your best weapon is your brain. Don't leave home without it.
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  15. #14
    Member Array Carvin66's Avatar
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    Fixed it, I added 200 no votes, Its a BS poll like all of them.

  16. #15
    Distinguished Member Array dben002's Avatar
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    Waste of time...useless.....the only poll that will matter is the one they take in Washington when back in session on gun control.
    There are two types of people who carry concealed weapons...Responsible ones and Irresponsible ones...which are you...

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