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More guns, more gun deaths

This is a discussion on More guns, more gun deaths within the The Second Amendment & Gun Legislation Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; I'm glad to see that rational people are looking at the data and formulating hypotheses based on some evidence, as opposed to just making blind ...

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  1. #46
    Member Array Clodbert's Avatar
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    I'm glad to see that rational people are looking at the data and formulating hypotheses based on some evidence, as opposed to just making blind conclusions.

    The null hypothesis based on the links you've shown us might be that more guns associates with more gun violence. Perhaps there is other data that exists that does not show that association. Perhaps there is data you missed that might refute what you're implying.

    But the old correlation/causation bit must rear its ugly head here. We don't know why more guns MIGHT lead to more violent gun crime*. After all, the guns can't shoot themselves. I would like to see more research done in this area.

    We can't just create additional restrictive gun legislation, dust our hands off, and think we've fixed the problem until we know the "why." I don't think we'll ever know "why" these horrific events occur.

    But we do need to be more stringent with our research if we are going to hypothesize that more legally-owned guns associates with more violent gun crime. This is, after all, what many liberal politicians and citizens alike are talking about (reducing the number of law-abiding citizens from legally obtaining firearms). To do that, we need a retrospective analysis of violent gun crime comparing two or more populations with diametrically-opposing gun laws. You would then have to exclude from that analysis incidents of defensive use of a firearm (ie. personal and home defense scenarios). Then, I think, you would also have to exclude incidents wherein illegal or unregistered firearms were used. If you want to create new gun legislation barring citizens from legally purchasing or using firearms, you should have some data showing that citizens using legally-owned handguns are committing violent gun crimes that are not defensive in nature, and that there is a significant difference between the population with the "lax" gun laws and the population with the very restrictive gun laws. Basically you would need to prove that gun control legislation stops people from using legally-purchased and legally-owned firearms to commit violent gun crimes.

    Although this imaginary research still wouldn't tell us "why," it would certainly be much more compelling than the data you've provided. We could put a little bit of stock into the associations we find, if indeed we do find any. Even then, it wouldn't be compelling enough to further restrict our Second Amendment rights.

    *We don't know if that's even true because one could certainly cherry-pick and data-dredge to tease out all kinds of correlations and support almost any hypothesis.
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  2. #47
    Distinguished Member Array BigStick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    I do not approach the discussion with empirical data. Instead, I believe self defense is a natural right. I also believe the second amendment is based, in part, on a recognition of this natural right.
    I would expand on this. Even if we had the highest murder rate in the world, and highest crime, that would still not override the constitution. We probably have the biggest liars in the world too, but that does not override the 1st Amendment, etc...

    It is not just a question of numbers, it is a questoin of rights and responsibilities. I do not (should not) lose my rights do to the actions of others. Period.
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  3. #48
    Member Array Dougb's Avatar
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    Actually, your empirical evidence may not be correct:

    FBI — Table 1

    Shows 20 years of decreasing crimes of violence in the U.S., this with increasing gun ownership and CCW.

    Gun Control: Myths and Realities | David Lampo | Cato Institute

    6. Lower murder rates in foreign countries prove that gun control works.

    False. This is one of the favorite arguments of gun control proponents, and yet the facts show that there is simply no correlation between gun control laws and murder or suicide rates across a wide spectrum of nations and cultures. In Israel and Switzerland, for example, a license to possess guns is available on demand to every law-abiding adult, and guns are easily obtainable in both nations. Both countries also allow widespread carrying of concealed firearms, and yet, admits Dr. Arthur Kellerman, one of the foremost medical advocates of gun control, Switzerland and Israel “have rates of homicide that are low despite rates of home firearm ownership that are at least as high as those in the United States.” A comparison of crime rates within Europe reveals no correlation between access to guns and crime.

    The basic premise of the gun control movement, that easy access to guns causes higher crime, is contradicted by the facts, by hi
    story and by reason. Let’s hope more people are catching on.

    We have violence because we have violent people. Removing the gun from law abiding people doesn't help. The weapons may change, but the behavior is still there. Bombs, knives, axes, cars, hammers, Hudson garden sprayers, the evil black assault rock have been used. Somehow, the presence of a gun slows down crimes of violence.
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  4. #49
    Distinguished Member Array brocktice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clodbert View Post
    But we do need to be more stringent with our research if we are going to hypothesize that more legally-owned guns associates with more violent gun crime. This is, after all, what many liberal politicians and citizens alike are talking about (reducing the number of law-abiding citizens from legally obtaining firearms). To do that, we need a retrospective analysis of violent gun crime comparing two or more populations with diametrically-opposing gun laws. You would then have to exclude from that analysis incidents of defensive use of a firearm (ie. personal and home defense scenarios). Then, I think, you would also have to exclude incidents wherein illegal or unregistered firearms were used. If you want to create new gun legislation barring citizens from legally purchasing or using firearms, you should have some data showing that citizens using legally-owned handguns are committing violent gun crimes that are not defensive in nature, and that there is a significant difference between the population with the "lax" gun laws and the population with the very restrictive gun laws. Basically you would need to prove that gun control legislation stops people from using legally-purchased and legally-owned firearms to commit violent gun crimes.

    Although this imaginary research still wouldn't tell us "why," it would certainly be much more compelling than the data you've provided. We could put a little bit of stock into the associations we find, if indeed we do find any. Even then, it wouldn't be compelling enough to further restrict our Second Amendment rights.

    *We don't know if that's even true because one could certainly cherry-pick and data-dredge to tease out all kinds of correlations and support almost any hypothesis.
    It's a tricky problem for sure. We do have some good news from within the US, at least. 1) The assault weapons ban did not measurably change gun crime and 2) its expiration did not either. 3) As the number of guns in circulation and concealed carriers has increased, gun crime has not increased. This is a nice review that even compares the critiques of Lott's analysis.

    This is a good study on the effects of Utah's CCW numbers.
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  5. #50
    Member Array Clodbert's Avatar
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    Due to the nature of this issue, causality will never be established. And this article brings up a good point: the data is ambiguous, and it probably always will be. Finding statistically-significant associations would require torturing the data, as Ayres and Donohue state in their review (link is provided within that article), and even then, they would still be mere associations, and thus would tell us virtually nothing.

    The data supporting gun control will never be compelling. The data against gun control probably won't ever be compelling either. The type of research needed to determine with any degree of certainty that gun control does or does not prevent gun violence will probably never be done. The simple fact is that we have rights to gun ownership afforded to us by the Second Amendment and those rights should not be restricted.
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  6. #51
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    Why are we to assume that the only reason for the numbers presenting the way they do is firearms? To say that is the sole determining factor is wilfull ignorance and intellectually dishonest.

    When people talk about how many of these tragedies occur in the U.S. compared to european countries they ignore the fact that most of those countries are only the size of states in our country. Russia is the only european country that is larger than Texas. Of the fifteen deadliest school incidents one third took place in the U.S. but one fifth took place in Germany. Germany is a little over half the size of Texas! So do we have more guns in Texas or in Germany? How many people in Germany have permits to carry concealed handguns? And yet Germany has had three of the fifteen deadliest school murders and Texas has only had one. And that one was decades before Texans were legally able to carry concealed hadnguns.

    How do the numbers shake out if we plot based on number of homicides vs per capita income? Or number of homicides vs population density? Or education level? Or how about use of antidepressant medication?

    There was an interesting interview with Michael Moore several years back where he said he went after the wrong industry in Bowling for Columbine. He said it was the pharmaceutical companies that really needed to be looked at. It seems some people think he may be on the right track with that. From over a year ago,
    Astounding increase in antidepressant use by Americans - Harvard Health Publications

    400% increase in use since 1988.
    I wonder how the number of multiple victim public murders per year would correlate with that.

    Instead of just blaming an inanimate object perhaps we should take a serious look at causality and maybe deal with that instead of taking the lazy mans way and just going after guns.
    Infowars- Proving David Hannum right on a daily basis

  7. #52
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    The numbers indicated could be an isolated group who does most of the gun crime/killing. (bad guys) So to use a blanket statement that more guns = more violence would not be accurate. If I gave every lawful home owner in an upper class neighborhood a gun would gun crime automatically go up in that neighborhood? I don't think so.

    What is the percent of gun deaths caused by thugs, gangs and bad guys vs. gun crimes by lawful citizens? I'd like to see that chart.
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  8. #53
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    I would have no problems with banning all guns if there was a to get rid of all guns. But that can't and won't happen so I am against gun control.

  9. #54
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    The United Nations Office on Drug and Crime conducts annual crime surveys, and here are the stats from their last survey:

    • The US has the highest gun ownership rate in the world — an average of 88 per 100 people. That puts it first in the world for gun ownership.
    • But the US does not have the worst firearm murder rate — that prize belongs to Honduras, El Salvador and Jamaica. In fact, the US is number 28, with a rate of 2.97 per 100,000 people.
    • Puerto Rico tops the world's table for firearms murders as a percentage of all homicides — nearly 95 percent. It's followed by Sierra Leone in Africa and Saint Kitts and Nevis in the Caribbean.

    What this shows is: With less than 5 percent of the world's population, the United States is home to roughly 35 to 50 percent of the world's civilian-owned guns, heavily skewing the global geography of firearms and any relative comparison.

    Source: Data

    Of the firearm deaths in the United States during 2005, 55 percent were suicides, according to stats from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The same stats show 40 percent were homicides. The other five percent were accidental.

    So, what that tells us is the 55 percent would have killed themselves regardless of method used, and that 40 percent of deaths can be attributed to criminals, who don't follow laws anyway.

  10. #55
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    Sig35seven and Skatalite have it right: look at who is doing the shooting and who is getting shot. I would suggest that the argument is there to be made that if you remove suicides from the statistics (which completely delegitimizes a great many 'charts' claiming to prove this or that) and criminal-on-criminal or gang crimes, you would find that our incidence of crime on innocents who are victimized through no fault of their own is lower than most people think. Having said that, it is extremely important that the rights of those innocents to defend themselves by use of firearms absolutely not be infringed in any way inconistent with the Second Amendment.

    If we look at the behavior of law-abiding gun owners, through the lens of CPL reports, such as those released by the Michigan State Police for example, we find that you can have ever so many guns in the hands of civilians and terrible things do not generally happen, or if they do, it is at a rate hundreds of times less than the general population.

    Cheers,

    Gav
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  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by brocktice View Post
    I'm a scientifically-minded person, and it is an empirical fact that countries with more guns per capita have more gun deaths per capita, with the exception of Mexico. This makes sense to me. More guns around means more available to criminals (via theft), and more available to law-abiding citizens that turn criminal.
    ^^^Baloney^^^^^^^^^^^^^


    Go to this link,
    http://www.gunfacts.info/pdfs/gun-fa...6_1_screen.pdf then go to page 9, then read.
    Your assertion that more guns means more deaths is bull-capitol S with a hit.
    Last edited by OD*; December 18th, 2012 at 10:34 PM.
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  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sig35seven View Post
    The numbers indicated could be an isolated group who does most of the gun crime/killing. (bad guys) So to use a blanket statement that more guns = more violence would not be accurate. If I gave every lawful home owner in an upper class neighborhood a gun would gun crime automatically go up in that neighborhood? I don't think so.

    What is the percent of gun deaths caused by thugs, gangs and bad guys vs. gun crimes by lawful citizens? I'd like to see that chart.

    ^^I had thought I read somewhere that when you eliminate gang on gang, and suicides, the murder rate in the US is somewhere near 10,000, but I can't be sure.
    If you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans.

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  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by oneshot View Post
    ^^I had thought I read somewhere that when you eliminate gang on gang, and suicides, the murder rate in the US is somewhere near 10,000, but I can't be sure.
    Murder rate never includes suicides. I assume you mean deaths caused by firearms would go down.
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  14. #59
    Distinguished Member Array brocktice's Avatar
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    Re: More guns, more gun deaths

    [QUOTE=oneshot;2497138]
    Quote Originally Posted by brocktice View Post
    I'm a scientifically-minded person, and it is an empirical fact that countries with more guns per capita have more gun deaths per capita, with the exception of Mexico. This makes sense to me. More guns around means more available to criminals (via theft), and more available to law-abiding citizens that turn criminal.

    QUOTE]



    ^^^Baloney^^^^^^^^^^^^^


    Go to this link,
    http://www.gunfacts.info/pdfs/gun-fa...6_1_screen.pdf then go to page 9, then read.
    Your assertion that more guns means more deaths is bull-capitol S with a hit.
    Easy there, 'means' is a strong word I didn't use.

  15. #60
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    Re: More guns, more gun deaths

    Why the hyper focus on gun related death?

    Isn't all premature death tragic?

    Of all the stats on gun deaths, and/or gun violence I've seen, they usually don't discern whether it was justifiable or not.

    Additionally, for every justifiable homicide where a perpetrator was eliminated, how many lives were preserved in the process?

    If the Petit family could've successfully deployed sufficient defense tools, administered with violent prejudice, they would be alive today.

    To even concede a 'gun related' problem is a fallacy. We have a social problem, true, but guns aren't a factor in the equation.

    How about let's ban the assault automobile that he used to drive to the school instead?



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