AWB II - My prediction

[dean1818]

A few notes on what MAY happen in a new AWB

1) No Face to Face sales of any guns without background check

2) All magazines over 10 rounds will be illegal.... No sunset clause..... Felony offense for non-compliance

3) installation of California style Bullet Button on all semi automatic rifles.

4) ALL Semi auto rifles will be registered as a condition of keeping / sunset clause


I imagine they will make some token statements on mental health as well


I believe that the first pass will be a total ban, with the "compromise" (fully planned)
Will be the items above.

We will see how conservative the republicans will be when this starts flying.

Time to email and call your senator and congressman......

Hopefully I am wrong, and nothing happens, but when you see republicans, and conservative
News commentators talking about mag capacity being too high....... You know it isn't going to
Be pretty

[DefensiveCarry.com]

[ZacMan1987]

You own an automatic rifle?
Please, show us!

[dean1818]

I have a 6.8, that I dearly want to hold onto

[buckeye .45]

All auto rifles are already registered, and no new ones have been made available to civilians since 1986

[dean1818]

Thanks buckeye and zak...... Fixed it

[relentless]

I mentioned this in the other assault weapon ban thread.

I'm an attorney and also I'm a gun owner so I follow all gun related Court cases extensively. I don't think another Federal Assault Weapon ban or the magazine capacity limits will ultimately be upheld. Granted this could take years to overturn if they pass it, but in the long run, I believe we would actually be better off if they passed it and it got overturned by SCOTUS. I know what you guys are thinking, well it's already my right the government is infringing on it if they pass this law. Well I understand that, but that just isn't the way it has ever worked in this country. Legislation is constitutional until the Supreme Court says it isn't.

The reason I believe that an AWB will be held as unconstitutional is because in the Heller decision it is made clear that the government cannot ban a "class of arms in common use by the American people for defense." The legislators and people who want an assault weapon ban the ones that are classifying assault weapons as their own "class of arms" instead of just a type of rifle. Therefore using their definition of an assault weapon and applying the Heller precedent an outright ban would have to get overturned.

Now, here's where it gets a little dicey. The magazine capacity limits could get upheld. They say in Heller that nothing in this opinion should be construed to overturn longstanding gun control laws such as laws against felons or the mentally ill from keeping arms. So they didn't overturn any other gun control laws with that opinion other than saying DC cannot ban handguns.

So what legal basis do I have for interpreting the capacity limit as unconstitutional? Because they are in common use by the people for defense. Holding a magazine capacity limit as constitutional could create a situation where certain firearms are de facto illegal. Extrapolating further say a state said magazines are illegal altogether? They wouldn't necessarily be outlawing certain firearms, but they would be rendering them useless for defense.

These questions will be answered by the Court in the future. Heller was only the beginning. The Court did not rule on the First Amendment until 150 years after the ratification in Near v. Minnesota, we now have extensive case law on the boundaries of the First Amendment. The 7th Circuit recently held that the Illinois CCW law was unconstitutional that might be the next case the Court rules on.

[soonershoote]

Ok, but the SC will not be the same peeps that we have now, POTUS could very well appoint some more lefties before he is through.

[relentless]

I'd say we're safe with Alito 62 and Roberts 57, they're relatively young. Thomas is only 64. Scalia is 76. Kennedy (the swing vote) is 76. Obama will probably be appointing more justices. I'd expect Ginsburg to step down, maybe Breyer.

Obama appointing more liberal justices isn't a problem so far as gun rights are concerned as long as the status quo is maintained and the justice he is replacing is a liberal.

[tokerblue]

Obama appointing more liberal justices isn't a problem so far as gun rights are concerned as long as the status quo is maintained and the justice he is replacing is a liberal.

- It is a problem because we have no idea if any of the pro-2A Justices will step down or meet an untimely death (God forbid).

[Eagleks]

OH .... you missed a few they have NOW added :

No Internet sales of guns (since you know ... they aren't doing background checks .. LMAO)... and no internet sales of ammunition.

[Eagleks]

The reason I believe that an AWB will be held as unconstitutional is because in the Heller decision it is made clear that the government cannot ban a "class of arms in common use by the American people for defense." The legislators and people who want an assault weapon ban the ones that are classifying assault weapons as their own "class of arms" instead of just a type of rifle. Therefore using their definition of an assault weapon and applying the Heller precedent an outright ban would have to get overturned.

I think you are correct.... and that the magazine capacity will fall in the same realm, since they are common and commonly used by the general public.

[dean1818]

Ok, but the SC will not be the same peeps that we have now, POTUS could very well appoint some more lefties before he is through.

Thats the rub in my opinion

Just one liberal replacement on the SC, and we will get the "militia only " opinion i fear


Lets pray that the 2 older conservative judges stay healthy

[dean1818]

Also..... The FIRST pass bill written will probably have some additional onerous items that will be taken out because it wont pass.


Its a point of negotiation........ Ask for everything........... Get the items that you can agree on.....

Listening to the talking heads today on the topic.......(our pastor moved services to Christmas eve, so I get to listen) The legistlators on the right have already caved
On the mag size...... We are going to be stuck at 10, I fully believe.

I beleive that the ftf sales will also be more regulated. (already decided)

Lets hope this crap stops there.

[retsupt99]

I'm not that worried about having to rid myself of any of my present possessions.
The rest of the progesssive 'wish list' is up for a good fight.

[Rookie53]

I don’t think a new AWB will pass the current House.

The last ban was passed with the Democrats holding 258 seats of 435 and the ban barely passed, 216-214 according to one of the talk shows this am. Many supporters of the 1994 ban lost their seats in the next election. I think the NRA influence will be diminished this time, but if the House leadership doesn’t want to take up the Senate bill, the bill goes nowhere. The Repubs have been getting their teeth kicked in by the Sen Reid and it is time for some payback. The Dems couldn’t get control of the house with their Rock star Obama on the ticket and driving turnout. Mid term elections tend to favor older voters and the die-hard Obama voters won’t have him on the ballot to drive turnout. House districts are controlled by state legislators and there will be no change of districts before the next mid term election.

The real problem is if Obama gets to replace one of the conservative Supreme Court justices- if he does, our gun rights are over. The new courts will gut prior Supreme Court decisions and our guns are gone.