Annals of Internal Medicine study

This is a discussion on Annals of Internal Medicine study within the The Second Amendment & Gun Legislation Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; I know this has just been published, but I'm hoping someone here might give me more info, specifically some scientific grounds for challenging the results ...

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    Senior Member Array RicT's Avatar
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    Annals of Internal Medicine study

    I know this has just been published, but I'm hoping someone here might give me more info, specifically some scientific grounds for challenging the results on the basis of incomplete data, or flawed analysis procedures, etc...
    My exposure to statistical analysis was LONG ago...and long forgotten.

    Annals of Internal Medicine | The Accessibility of Firearms and Risk for Suicide and Homicide Victimization Among Household Members: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    "The Accessibility of Firearms and Risk for Suicide and Homicide Victimization Among Household Members: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis"

    Background: Research suggests that access to firearms in the home increases the risk for violent death.

    Purpose: To understand current estimates of the association between firearm availability and suicide or homicide.

    This article is now being promoted by the anti-gun establishment:
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/study-gu...homicide-risk/

    Anyone with some current knowledge of statistics want to take a shot at this (so to speak)?

    I can't let something like this be used as ammunition against my pro-2A arguments.

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    Member Array Dougb's Avatar
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    Understand that the anti gun movement does not respond to facts, proof, science. The Pres ordered the CDC to conduct a study of gun violence. It was done. The Pres does not talk about the results. His own study, by a reputable group, showed things he didn't want to see.
    Daily Kos: Defensive Gun Use (Part I) - The CDC Report on Gun Violence

    Japan has almost no guns. Their suicide rate is much higher than ours. Most of our suicides are by gun. Easy and reliable. The Japanese use high buildings, rope, fast trains, and household chemicals purchased at the local grocery store. The gun is just the tool used. The evidence indicates that guns do not cause suicide, and in the absence of guns, there are plenty of alternatives.

    You need to have guns to have any gun violence, so logically if you remove all or most of the guns, gun violence goes down. But" gun violence" is just a subset of "violence". The Aussies have shown that when you remove guns, while "gun violence" decreases, "knife violence", "stick violence", "rock violence", and "golf club" violence increase enough to make up for the decrease in gun violence. The Aussies can not prove their gun grab saved a single life, but evidence exists to show it may have changed the cause of death in a few cases.

    Australian Institute of Criminology - Homicide weapon statistics
    There has been a pronounced change in the type of weapons used in homicide since monitoring began. Firearm use has declined by more than half since 1989-90 as a proportion of homicide methods, and there has been an upward trend in the use of knives and sharp instruments, which in 2006-07 accounted for nearly half of all homicide victims.
    Correlation is not causation. There is a correlation between guns and death. Same with cars and death, swimming pools and death. marriage and death, birth and death. But the correlation just says there is a relation between. It does not go to cause. Studies have shown that violent people with guns use guns for violence, violent people without guns use something else. Studies also show that poverty and housing density have more to do with violence than the presence of weapons. Non violent people with guns apparently debate politely or draw straws.

    Harries - Population density and crime - IJCJS vol 1 issue 2

    By and large, the available evidence increasingly tends to suggest that most types of crime tend to increase in levels of occurrence with increasing population density. This relationship, however, is moderated by SES. A cluster of affluent high-rise apartments in Mumbai or New York may have high density, but will also have a high level of guardianship, thus inhibiting crime. On the other hand, a high density poverty area will incorporate in its lifestyle incentives for predatory behaviours and disincentiven the hazars for guardianship, giveds associated with confronting criminals (on their turf) or witnessing criminal acts.+

    Suicide methods - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Research also indicates no association vis--vis safe-storage laws of guns that are owned, and gun suicide rates; and studies that attempt to link gun ownership to likely victimology often fail to account for the presence of guns owned by other people.[35][36] Researchers have shown that safe-storage laws do not appear to affect gun suicide rates or juvenile accidental gun death.[35][36]
    Gun Control: Myths and Realities | Cato Institute

    The assumption in the anti gunners is that if you remove guns, violence stops and every one is safe. Mankind killed each other before there were guns and still uses weapons of opportunity to kill now. Reading the news should have made people realize that with average police response times of over 10 minutes (from the call being received), you need a plan B.

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    Great reply Dougb!
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    It may be that your sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others.

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    If somebody quotes this study say "so what?"

    Tell them many of the rights in the constitution increase the likelihood of the guilty going free so that they can kill, rape and rob again. Then ask them if the fourth, fifth, sixth and eight amendments should be revoked in response. Then tell them to embrace freedom or move to North Korea.
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    -PEF, a Framer with a Steelie...
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    4. Be sure of your target and what is beyond it.

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    "They who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

    They will get neither. The study shows correlation but not causation. You need to do some serious research of your own if you want to counter them on their (moronic) level...but what they need to really understand is the above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    If somebody quotes this study say "so what?"

    Tell them many of the rights in the constitution increase the likelihood of the guilty going free so that they can kill, rape and rob again. Then ask them if the fourth, fifth, sixth and eight amendments should be revoked in response. Then tell them to embrace freedom or move to North Korea.
    Unfortunately there will be plenty of ignorant citizens who would happily give up essential liberties for temporary safety.
    baren likes this.
    "Each worker carried his sword strapped to his side." Nehemiah 4:18

    Guns Save Lives. Paramedics Save Lives. But...
    Paramedics With Guns Scare People!

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    I'm going to publish a study that determines that people who are intent on committing murder and suicide believe that "guns are a fine tool for the job but other tools will work also."

    Sadly, there is a mindset that the gun is the controller. Ever hear somebody say, "If I had a gun I would have shot him."
    "Each worker carried his sword strapped to his side." Nehemiah 4:18

    Guns Save Lives. Paramedics Save Lives. But...
    Paramedics With Guns Scare People!

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    Senior Member Array RicT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dougb View Post
    Understand that the anti gun movement does not respond to facts, proof, science. The Pres ordered the CDC to conduct a study of gun violence. It was done. The Pres does not talk about the results. His own study, by a reputable group, showed things he didn't want to see.
    Dougb,

    I appreciate you taking the time to lay out all those facts; I've used those and more when discussing guns with "anti-gun" types. (As an aside, if you really want to twist an anti-gun person's head around, read this article by Dave Kopel, and then use the scenarios to counter their argument that "if only there were no guns"...:
    A World Without Guns

    Anyway, I do understand that "correlation is not causation", and that's one argument that I've used in the past; it might be the one that I use against this current study, but I was hoping for something more based on a flaw in the statistical analysis of the current study. The reason I'm looking for something like that is partly laid out in a thread I started here:
    Interesting Opportunity

    The "Retired Professor" I mention in that thread is someone who's edited a professional journal for years, and who probably would respond to a flaw in this current study's methodology.

    And, obviously I don't completely agree with your very first sentence (above)...while the anti-gun movement may not respond to facts, proof, science, I believe the INDIVIDUALS making up that movement can sometimes be convinced of those things, so I take the position that it's to our advantage to present logical, reasoned arguments when talking to the "antis" about guns and 2nd Amendment Rights, rather than just write them all off as "left-wing nutjobs" who won't ever change their minds.
    Jeanlouise and tdave like this.

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    VIP Member Array tdave's Avatar
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    A world Without Guns

    Thanks for posting this really lays it out.

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    Senior Member Array Warrior1256's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeanlouise View Post
    Great reply Dougb!
    Ditto!!!!!!

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    Background: Research suggests that access to firearms in the home increases the risk for violent death.
    Yup. Someone having the means of causing violent death means they'll have increased chance of such death. Someone not having any such means is less likely. Sort of like living near a pond increases the likelihood one might die of drowning in a pond. And they needed a "study" to figure that one out?

    Of course, none of this changes the likelihood of any given person doing any such thing. Sort of like owning an axe at home and then deciding to become an axe murderer. It's not as though people who visibly carry spontaneously combust because of it. It'll depend on the person, whether the individual in question chooses to be the sort who does such things. With suicides and criminals, though, opportunities abound. It'd be nice if the conclusions from such "studies" could single out such folks, instead of resulting in policy decisions that jump on everyone's heads in a vain attempt to get to the crux of the problem. But that'd be too honorable and just.
    Your best weapon is your brain. Don't leave home without it.
    Thoughts: Justifiable self defense (A.O.J.).
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    Armed and dangerous is all around and about the rags and journals.

    We'd have answered the question long ago if not for that pesky little 2nd Ammendment.

    The Founders understood this.
    There is a solution but we are not Jedi... not yet.
    Doghandler

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    For me, my firearms ownership does increase the risk of violent death...for those who may attempt to cause me and my family grievous harm. That's the way it should be.
    Know Guns, Know Safety, Know Peace.
    No Guns, No Safety, No Peace.


    Guns are like sex and air...its no big deal until YOU can't get any.

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    VIP Member Array nedrgr21's Avatar
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    This particular study may be new, but the subject matter and "conclusion" are hardly new. The issues with this study are the same as the old one, the issues with this journal are the same as they were the first time around. I spent some time actually reading some of their studies and came to the conclusion that any freshman studying stats and how to design scientific studies would be able to pick apart their methods.

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    VIP Member Array Doghandler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nedrgr21 View Post
    This particular study may be new, but the subject matter and "conclusion" are hardly new. The issues with this study are the same as the old one, the issues with this journal are the same as they were the first time around. I spent some time actually reading some of their studies and came to the conclusion that any freshman studying stats and how to design scientific studies would be able to pick apart their methods.
    You studied Rock and Glocks Avatar? Progress is always the hardest question.
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