Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders

Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders

This is a discussion on Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders within the The Second Amendment & Gun Legislation Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders "Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law, which required all handgun ...

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Thread: Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders

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    Member Array nortelrye's Avatar
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    Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders

    Repeal of Missouri's Background Check Law Associated with Increase in State's Murders

    "Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law, which required all handgun purchasers to obtain a license verifying that they have passed a background check, contributed to a sixteen percent increase in Missouri's murder rate, according to a new study from researchers with the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research.

    The study, to be published in a forthcoming issue of Journal of Urban Health, finds that the law's repeal was associated with an additional 55 to 63 murders per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2012.

    State-level murder data for the time period 1999-2012 were collected and analyzed from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system. The analyses controlled for changes in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, poverty, and other state laws adopted during the study period that could affect violent crime.

    The increase in murders with firearms in Missouri began in the first full year after the PTP handgun law was repealed when data from crime gun traces revealed simultaneous large increases in the number of guns diverted to criminals and in guns purchased in Missouri that were subsequently recovered by police in border states that retained their PTP laws."


    ----
    Some anti-gun folks I know are already trumpeting this as scientific validation of their claims. I'm interested in reading a copy of the published journal article when it comes out. Any Missouri folk here mind shedding some light on the old 'permit-to-purchase' process?
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    I've gained 12 pounds since 2007. Tell Missouri to reinstate its PTP checks so I can lose some weight.
    Thanks
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    Only a fool would believe that repealing the background check had anything at all to do with an increase in murders.

    Those "researchers" are grasping at straws. Even they don't believe that crap but it does fit their agenda so they'll push it and attempt to sway the people that are brain dead already.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HotGuns View Post
    Only a fool would believe that repealing the background check had anything at all to do with an increase in murders.

    Those "researchers" are grasping at straws. Even they don't believe that crap but it does fit their agenda so they'll push it and attempt to sway the people that are brain dead already.
    Then how do you explain my 12 pound weight gain from 2007? Nothing else has changed with me, honest.
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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by From the article
    "Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law, which required all handgun purchasers to obtain a license verifying that they have passed a background check, contributed to a sixteen percent increase in Missouri's murder rate, according to a new study from researchers with the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research.
    Uh-huh. Contributed to the rise, associated with the rise. Not merely coincidentally occurred during the same time period. I wonder how they concluded the one caused at least part of that movement, during the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930's. Desperation rises, during such times. The use of heroin and other drugs has spiked over this period as well, as have a variety of other crimes. Caused by the impotence of the permissions scheme, hm?


    Interestingly, the study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg (endowed) center was (at least in part) funded by the Joyce Foundation. They admitted that, at least.

    What We Do - About The Foundation | The Joyce Foundation

    GUN VIOLENCE PREVENTION: Each year nearly 100,000 people are shot in the U.S., and nearly 30,000 of them die. The Joyce Foundation seeks effective public policies to reduce this toll. Polls show that most Americans, including most gun-owners, favor reasonable laws to keep firearms away from criminals, domestic abusers, and people with mental illness, but the "gun rights" drumbeat has drowned out such common-sense approaches.

    The Foundation is embarking on efforts to educate the public, policy makers and the media about the toll of gun violence in American communities and potential solutions that honor American traditions while protecting the public safety.

    Since beginning its work on gun violence in 1993, Joyce has supported policy development and advocacy by state-based groups, physicians, universities, and law enforcement. It has also supported development of legal strategies to defend existing gun laws in the wake of the Supreme Court Heller decision.

    As in its other program areas, the Foundation seeks approaches based on sound data and research. Starting with a prototype at the Medical College of Wisconsin in the 1990s, the Foundation helped establish the National Violent Death Reporting System, a central database that is now maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Joyce has also funded research exploring the relationship between guns and such problems as suicide, domestic violence, and risks to children.
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    This is why I'm interested in seeing the actual article, and their research submitted for peer review. Dismissal by assertion is not at all effective at convincing people who do science for a living.

    Furthermore, if this study concluded the opposite some here would be loudly trumpeting it as a scientific validation of their own point of view, which is why it's important to see the actual article and data. If there are flaws in methodology, data analysis, etc that should come out when the article and its corresponding data is reviewed. Guilt-by-association of the organization conducting the study or maligning the researchers does absolutely nothing to undermine the validity of the science.
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    Distinguished Member Array CIBMike's Avatar
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    So does this also mean that the NICS federal check that is still in place is also not working?

    Attack one background check you inadvertently attack them all.


    Oh bitter irony.
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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nortelrye View Post
    This is why I'm interested in seeing the actual article, and their research submitted for peer review. Dismissal by assertion is not at all effective at convincing people who do science for a living.

    Furthermore, if this study concluded the opposite some here would be loudly trumpeting it as a scientific validation of their own point of view, which is why it's important to see the actual article and data. If there are flaws in methodology, data analysis, etc that should come out when the article and its corresponding data is reviewed. Guilt-by-association of the organization conducting the study or maligning the researchers does absolutely nothing to undermine the validity of the science.
    Just a piece of the puzzle, lacking visibility of the peer-reviewed content. A much-needed piece, for understanding potential motivations and incentives involved. Wasn't trying to associate them with third parties. Simply thought their funded purpose and mission was worth noting, when considering where they're coming from.

    You're correct, though, that implying such a mission proves the study's bunk is a stretch. Didn't mean to imply that, though obviously some will take it that way. Simply meant that the affiliations/mission/purpose are worth being aware of, and that merely claiming a rise doesn't necessarily mean there's an "association" let alone causation.
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    ccw9mm your thoughts mirrored mine on this issue. How can they simply claim that this one factor led to this increase and isolate it from everything else that has gone on in that time frame?
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    VIP Member Array ccw9mm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdave View Post
    ccw9mm your thoughts mirrored mine on this issue. How can they simply claim that this one factor led to this increase and isolate it from everything else that has gone on in that time frame?
    As nortelrye's comments remind us, it depends on the viability of their research methods and design of the study.

    About all that can be said, really, is that there's a contributing association. Meaning, basically, that given numerous possible factors, there are a number that appear statistically contributing, and of those the factor in question appears to explain (the claimed) 16% of the variation. If designed well, they can claim that. But that's still a long way from causation.
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    Senior Member Array wdbailey's Avatar
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    I an suspicious of the use of flat numbers like "55 or 60 more murders than previous years" with no reference to the firearm homicide rate per 100,000
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    Quote Originally Posted by ccw9mm View Post
    Uh-huh. Contributed to the rise, associated with the rise. Not merely coincidentally occurred during the same time period. I wonder how they concluded the one caused at least part of that movement, during the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930's. Desperation rises, during such times. The use of heroin and other drugs has spiked over this period as well, as have a variety of other crimes. Caused by the impotence of the permissions scheme, hm?


    Interestingly, the study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg (endowed) center was (at least in part) funded by the Joyce Foundation. They admitted that, at least.

    What We Do - About The Foundation | The Joyce Foundation

    GUN VIOLENCE PREVENTION: Each year nearly 100,000 people are shot in the U.S., and nearly 30,000 of them die. The Joyce Foundation seeks effective public policies to reduce this toll. Polls show that most Americans, including most gun-owners, favor reasonable laws to keep firearms away from criminals, domestic abusers, and people with mental illness, but the "gun rights" drumbeat has drowned out such common-sense approaches.

    The Foundation is embarking on efforts to educate the public, policy makers and the media about the toll of gun violence in American communities and potential solutions that honor American traditions while protecting the public safety.

    Since beginning its work on gun violence in 1993, Joyce has supported policy development and advocacy by state-based groups, physicians, universities, and law enforcement. It has also supported development of legal strategies to defend existing gun laws in the wake of the Supreme Court Heller decision.

    As in its other program areas, the Foundation seeks approaches based on sound data and research. Starting with a prototype at the Medical College of Wisconsin in the 1990s, the Foundation helped establish the National Violent Death Reporting System, a central database that is now maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Joyce has also funded research exploring the relationship between guns and such problems as suicide, domestic violence, and risks to children.


    The devil is in the details they chose not to publish. There were many socio-economic events that occurred over that period that could have contributed. And, I saw no normalization for population growth.

    Once again, we have proven that numbers taken out of context and/or summarized with a goal in mind can say just about anything and aren't worth anything...
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    This school presenting these findings is named after Michael Bloomberg, who has donated over one billion dollars to Johns Hopkins University.
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    VIP Member Array OutWestSystems's Avatar
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    I have no doubt the "facts" of the study are correct, what I question is the conclusions. We know the facts, they changed the requirements to purchase a handgun and we know the facts that there has been an increase in murders in the state. This is what we call "correlation". Correlation is not equal to causation. We do not know that the change in the law "caused" the increase in murders. There are many other reason why the murder rate may have increased.
    gatorbait51 likes this.

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