DC vs. Heller:ALL Related Discussion: VICTORY! Merged - Page 24

ExactlyMyPoint · June 20th, 2008, 02:05 AM

Got this today from Alan Korwin:

Quote:

1- Heller Insider Info

The lamestream media told you:

Nothing.

The Uninvited Ombudsman notes however that:

With thanks to deputy public information officer Estrada at the U.S. Supreme Court:

1. Heller does not have the highest number of amicus briefs in the Court's history, it is third, at 66. The highest was 107 in the affirmative action case Grutter (539 U.S. 306 in 2003), followed by the abortion case Webster (492 U.S. 490 in 1989) at 78.

2. The Heller decision could actually come later than June 23, the widely anticipated last scheduled day of proceedings for the session. The Court can add days to its calendar for additional decisions if it needs to, but these would typically come before the end of the week (June 27). Absolutely no way to know for sure until they act.

3. Lead attorney Alan Gura pointed out in an email to me (6/19/08) that the Court still has ten decisions left to issue, including three biggies, so it's highly likely they will add days to the calendar.

4. My conjecture: The decision must be signed and sealed now for at least days if not weeks, to allow for proofing, typesetting, printing, binding, pre-mail activity, web prep, syllabus draft, etc. My guess is they would rather release it at the end, so the national hub bub doesn't impinge on other work they have. Requests for interviews, phone calls from friends and close associates, shouting in the press, a ton of activity can be expected, might as well finish off the term first, no?

5. The best site for immediate download of the decision will be the Slip Opinions page, and web-traffic overload has not been a problem in the past according to the PIO (but we shall see on this one, eh?)
2007 Term Opinions of the Court
Every "news" outlet on the planet will cover this story, where SOP is to a) read and partially understand only the Court's summary, or b) copy "wire services" which are routinely spin machines on this subject, and then release a mixture of fact, hype and editorial where the news is supposed to go.

6. My book on the Heller case is already underway, will include summaries and background on all 96 gun cases the High Court has heard so far, and the most thorough coverage of Heller you're likely to find anywhere. Many experts have agreed to contribute. Watch for the announcement when it goes on press.

Hopyard · June 20th, 2008, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cagueits

Has any one seen any video of the actual hearing? (not just the recorded argument with the pictures of who was speaking at the time) It is strange that C-SPAN didn't broadcast the argument live from SCOTUS's chambers in audio/video.

The court does not permit video and has no plan to do so.

Anubis · June 20th, 2008, 07:50 PM

New StatPack, Plus What to Expect Next Week | SCOTUSblog

...there are now ten cases to be decided before the Court recesses for the summer, including three of the highest profile cases of the year - DC v. Heller (Second Amendment), Kennedy v. Louisiana (death penalty for child rape) and Exxon v. Baker (punitive damages over Exxon Valdez oil spill). We wanted to give those readers awaiting these decisions a quick primer on what to expect over the next week.

The timing of opinions. There is only one decision day next week on the Court’s official calendar: Monday, June 23, when the Court’s public session will begin at 10 am eastern. However, as the Court has done for the past two weeks, it’s certain that the Court will sit on one or more additional days later in the week. Based on past practice, if the Court holds one additional opinion day, it will likely be the Thursday (June 26) as it did last Term. If it holds two additional opinion days (which is more likely, given that ten opinions remain), the added days will likely be Wednesday (June 25) and Thursday (as it did in the 2005 Term).

(Of course, the Court isn’t required to finish by June 26, but it has concluded the Term before July every year for the last decade. Monday June 30 is also a possible last day, but is unlikely because the Court internally plans on finishing each Term during the fourth week of June.)

...

Predicting which opinions will be issued. No one unaffiliated with the Supreme Court is told what opinions will be handed down on a given morning or even how many will be issued, and this includes the Supreme Court press corps. Thus, which opinions are issued is a complete to surprise to everyone outside of the building except for the last day of the Term, when we can use the process of elimination to predict which opinions will be issued.

Predicting opinion authors. First, a bit of background: at the Supreme Court, the most senior justice in the majority assigns who will author the opinion in a given case. Since the Chief has been in the majority in all but five cases this term, he has assigned the author of 54 opinions. Justice Stevens, who has been in the majority in all of those cases in which the Chief dissented, assigned the author in four of the remaining cases. In one case, US v. Santos, it’s not quite accurate to say that Justice Stevens “assigned” the plurality opinion to Justice Scalia to the extent that Justice Alito may have originally had, but then lost, a majority. For more on the complexities of the Santos case, see Marty Lederman’s post here.

While assignment is the prerogative of the Chief in most cases, it is common practice for the Chief and the Court to attempt to divide opinions up somewhat evenly, both within each sitting and across the term as a whole. For various reasons, including the potential for a justice to switch his vote, the varying number of times in which a justice is actually in the majority, as well as the simple fact that the number of cases decided will likely not be an exact multiple of nine, the opinions are never divvied up exactly evenly. Last Term, each Justice authored between 6 and 8 majority opinions.

Likewise, individual sittings are divided up roughly but not exactly evenly: for cases argued in this term’s November sitting, seven Justices authored one majority opinion, Justice Souter authored two majority opinions, and Justice Alito authored none. Nonetheless, looking for the even distribution of opinions among the justices is the best way we have to guess the authors of outstanding opinions.

...

March. Two opinions remain: Rothgery v. Gillespie and the case many of our readers our waiting eagerly for, DC v. Heller. Two justices have not yet written in the sitting: Souter and Scalia. As both of them have only written five total opinions thus far, it seems quite likely that these two are the outstanding authors, barring some sort of vote-switching. Based on the tenor of oral argument, it is widely expected that the individual rights view of the Second Amendment will prevail in the guns case, which means that it appears that Justice Scalia may well be writing the opinion for the majority, leaving Rothgery to Justice Souter. It remains a possibility, of course, that if Justice Scalia is the author, his opinion commands only a plurality.

Rock and Glock · June 20th, 2008, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hopyard

The court does not permit video and has no plan to do so.

OMG! Please never! Memories of Judge Itto"!

The Heller release will result in a maelstrom of media hype.

1911packer · June 23rd, 2008, 11:23 AM

No Heller decision today.

From SCOUTSblog - "The only opinion remaining from the March sitting is Heller. The only Justice without a majority opinion from that sitting is Justice Scalia."

Does that mean Scalia will write the majority opinion for Heller???

falcon1 · June 23rd, 2008, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1911packer

No Heller decision today.

From SCOUTSblog - "The only opinion remaining from the March sitting is Heller. The only Justice without a majority opinion from that sitting is Justice Scalia."

Does that mean Scalia will write the majority opinion for Heller???

I did see a comment from a SCOTUS blog that thought Justice Scalia's writing of the opinion was extremely likely. It also noted that, if he did write it, it would likely be strong, but not have as many consents as if Souter wrote the opinion (who also hadn't written an opinion from the March sitting at the time the blog was written).

Benthic · June 23rd, 2008, 01:16 PM

Also from SCOTUS Blog

Brian

Quote:

Wild Opinion Speculation
Posted By Tom Goldstein On June 23, 2008 @ 11:29 am In Term Tracker | Comments Disabled

[Corrected at 11:48]

There is very little information that can be gleaned with confidence about the authorship of the remaining opinions from the Term.

It does look exceptionally likely that Justice Scalia is writing the principal opinion for the Court in Heller – the D.C. guns case. That is the only opinion remaining from the sitting and he is the only member of the Court not to have written a majority opinion from the sitting. There is no indication that he lost a majority from March. His only dissent from the sitting is for two Justices in Indiana v. Edwards. So, that’s a good sign for advocates of a strong individual rights conception of the Second Amendment and a bad sign for D.C.

Backing up to February, there are two remaining cases (both argued, like the guns case, by Walter Dellinger): Morgan-Stanley (an energy regulation case) and Exxon (the maritime punitive damages case). Six Justices haven’t written from the sitting, making predictions very dicey. The best guess is that Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Stevens are writing. Justices Scalia, Souter, and Kennedy are unlikely because they had already written twice in a sitting before February. Justice Ginsburg wrote twice in later sittings.

For April, there are four opinions remaining: Plains Commerce (involving Indian tribes), Kennedy (death penalty for child rape), Davis v. FEC (campaign finance), and Giles (a Confrontation Clause case). Justices Scalia, Kennedy, and Alito have not written and therefore almost certainly have three of the opinions. The most likely author for the remaining decision is Justice Souter (who needs another opinion to take him to seven for the Term).

With the exception of Heller, these predictions have no genuine value. They are just informed guesses and none says anything about the outcome of the cases.

Article printed from SCOTUSblog: SCOTUSblog

URL to article: Wild Opinion Speculation | SCOTUSblog

1911packer · June 23rd, 2008, 03:39 PM

"It does look exceptionally likely that Justice Scalia is writing the principal opinion for the Court in Heller – the D.C. guns case. That is the only opinion remaining from the sitting and he is the only member of the Court not to have written a majority opinion from the sitting. There is no indication that he lost a majority from March. His only dissent from the sitting is for two Justices in Indiana v. Edwards. So, that’s a good sign for advocates of a strong individual rights conception of the Second Amendment and a bad sign for D.C."

Maybe they are waiting to release the Heller opinion so everyone can read between the lines and realize in advance that it will be very pro-individual. That way, it won't be such a shock to the sheep when it is released.

Rob P. · June 23rd, 2008, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1911packer

Maybe they are waiting to release the Heller opinion so everyone can read between the lines and realize in advance that it will be very pro-individual. That way, it won't be such a shock to the sheep when it is released.

More likely they are just playing the media and the public. If they wait until next Monday at 5 p.m. to release Heller while on their way home for the day & then immediately go out for summer recess there will be no one home at SCOTUS to answer to the media frenzy no matter which way they decide the case.

Plus, if it's very very bad for DC and for gun bans/restrictions, releasing the opinion 5 days before the 4th of July would also be pandering to public sentiment over the meaning of the holiday. (re-Independence day.)

IMO the decision will be published on Thursday unless they decide to play games.

sgtD · June 24th, 2008, 02:00 AM

Having Scalia write the opinion, if that is the case, is a double edged sword IMO. First, if he indeed writes it, he will fully cover the issue and he does not tend to mince words, therefore it will be a strongly written opinion if he follows his own tradition.

However, among many legal scholars and intellectual elitists, Scalia is seen and protrayed as some type of throwback to the caveman days, who completely lacks the compasion and civilized mindset needed to shepard our "living breathing constitution" into the modern times. Ie, The opinion will be derided in law schools throughout the nation by liberal elitists who have an absolute disdain for anything that Scalia pens.

So, the opinon will be portrayed as another Scalia opinion, ie. throwback mentality on parade. IMO, if the individual rights side wins, we would be better off if the opinion was written by someone viewed by the elitist intellectuals as being moderate. (Perhaps Kennedy, but he seems to be portrayed as a wipping boy sometimes.) Having John Roberts write it would have been best. Thomas is portrayed in almost as bad a light as Scalia in most cases, so no help there.

With Scalia writing, a plurality opinion is more likely, and will be easier for future "more enlightened" judges to attack at a later date, when our society makes its way out of the "neandertal mindset" that Scalia is seen as representing. As with all law, nothing is ever truly settled and the court is not bound by its own precident, especially if that precident is written by someone that the elites see as an embarasment.

Of course, strong concurring opinions by Roberts, Alito, or more moderate judges may be forthcoming, but could either help or harm the Scalia opionion. I just wish they would get it done so we would no longer have to speculate.

June 20th, 2008, 07:50 PM	#233
Anubis Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Arapahoe County CO Posts: 940	opinions may be issued after Jun 23 New StatPack, Plus What to Expect Next Week \| SCOTUSblog ...there are now ten cases to be decided before the Court recesses for the summer, including three of the highest profile cases of the year - DC v. Heller (Second Amendment), Kennedy v. Louisiana (death penalty for child rape) and Exxon v. Baker (punitive damages over Exxon Valdez oil spill). We wanted to give those readers awaiting these decisions a quick primer on what to expect over the next week. The timing of opinions. There is only one decision day next week on the Court’s official calendar: Monday, June 23, when the Court’s public session will begin at 10 am eastern. However, as the Court has done for the past two weeks, it’s certain that the Court will sit on one or more additional days later in the week. Based on past practice, if the Court holds one additional opinion day, it will likely be the Thursday (June 26) as it did last Term. If it holds two additional opinion days (which is more likely, given that ten opinions remain), the added days will likely be Wednesday (June 25) and Thursday (as it did in the 2005 Term). (Of course, the Court isn’t required to finish by June 26, but it has concluded the Term before July every year for the last decade. Monday June 30 is also a possible last day, but is unlikely because the Court internally plans on finishing each Term during the fourth week of June.) ... Predicting which opinions will be issued. No one unaffiliated with the Supreme Court is told what opinions will be handed down on a given morning or even how many will be issued, and this includes the Supreme Court press corps. Thus, which opinions are issued is a complete to surprise to everyone outside of the building except for the last day of the Term, when we can use the process of elimination to predict which opinions will be issued. Predicting opinion authors. First, a bit of background: at the Supreme Court, the most senior justice in the majority assigns who will author the opinion in a given case. Since the Chief has been in the majority in all but five cases this term, he has assigned the author of 54 opinions. Justice Stevens, who has been in the majority in all of those cases in which the Chief dissented, assigned the author in four of the remaining cases. In one case, US v. Santos, it’s not quite accurate to say that Justice Stevens “assigned” the plurality opinion to Justice Scalia to the extent that Justice Alito may have originally had, but then lost, a majority. For more on the complexities of the Santos case, see Marty Lederman’s post here. While assignment is the prerogative of the Chief in most cases, it is common practice for the Chief and the Court to attempt to divide opinions up somewhat evenly, both within each sitting and across the term as a whole. For various reasons, including the potential for a justice to switch his vote, the varying number of times in which a justice is actually in the majority, as well as the simple fact that the number of cases decided will likely not be an exact multiple of nine, the opinions are never divvied up exactly evenly. Last Term, each Justice authored between 6 and 8 majority opinions. Likewise, individual sittings are divided up roughly but not exactly evenly: for cases argued in this term’s November sitting, seven Justices authored one majority opinion, Justice Souter authored two majority opinions, and Justice Alito authored none. Nonetheless, looking for the even distribution of opinions among the justices is the best way we have to guess the authors of outstanding opinions. ... March. Two opinions remain: Rothgery v. Gillespie and the case many of our readers our waiting eagerly for, DC v. Heller. Two justices have not yet written in the sitting: Souter and Scalia. As both of them have only written five total opinions thus far, it seems quite likely that these two are the outstanding authors, barring some sort of vote-switching. Based on the tenor of oral argument, it is widely expected that the individual rights view of the Second Amendment will prevail in the guns case, which means that it appears that Justice Scalia may well be writing the opinion for the majority, leaving Rothgery to Justice Souter. It remains a possibility, of course, that if Justice Scalia is the author, his opinion commands only a plurality. __________________ Send lawyers, Glocks, and money!

June 23rd, 2008, 11:23 AM	#235
1911packer Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Georgia Posts: 393	No Heller decision today. From SCOUTSblog - "The only opinion remaining from the March sitting is Heller. The only Justice without a majority opinion from that sitting is Justice Scalia." Does that mean Scalia will write the majority opinion for Heller??? __________________ Observations on Political and Social Insanity

June 23rd, 2008, 03:39 PM	#238
1911packer Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Georgia Posts: 393	"It does look exceptionally likely that Justice Scalia is writing the principal opinion for the Court in Heller – the D.C. guns case. That is the only opinion remaining from the sitting and he is the only member of the Court not to have written a majority opinion from the sitting. There is no indication that he lost a majority from March. His only dissent from the sitting is for two Justices in Indiana v. Edwards. So, that’s a good sign for advocates of a strong individual rights conception of the Second Amendment and a bad sign for D.C." Maybe they are waiting to release the Heller opinion so everyone can read between the lines and realize in advance that it will be very pro-individual. That way, it won't be such a shock to the sheep when it is released. __________________ Observations on Political and Social Insanity

June 24th, 2008, 02:00 AM	#240
sgtD Distinguished Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Kansas Posts: 1,685	Having Scalia write the opinion, if that is the case, is a double edged sword IMO. First, if he indeed writes it, he will fully cover the issue and he does not tend to mince words, therefore it will be a strongly written opinion if he follows his own tradition. However, among many legal scholars and intellectual elitists, Scalia is seen and protrayed as some type of throwback to the caveman days, who completely lacks the compasion and civilized mindset needed to shepard our "living breathing constitution" into the modern times. Ie, The opinion will be derided in law schools throughout the nation by liberal elitists who have an absolute disdain for anything that Scalia pens. So, the opinon will be portrayed as another Scalia opinion, ie. throwback mentality on parade. IMO, if the individual rights side wins, we would be better off if the opinion was written by someone viewed by the elitist intellectuals as being moderate. (Perhaps Kennedy, but he seems to be portrayed as a wipping boy sometimes.) Having John Roberts write it would have been best. Thomas is portrayed in almost as bad a light as Scalia in most cases, so no help there. With Scalia writing, a plurality opinion is more likely, and will be easier for future "more enlightened" judges to attack at a later date, when our society makes its way out of the "neandertal mindset" that Scalia is seen as representing. As with all law, nothing is ever truly settled and the court is not bound by its own precident, especially if that precident is written by someone that the elites see as an embarasment. Of course, strong concurring opinions by Roberts, Alito, or more moderate judges may be forthcoming, but could either help or harm the Scalia opionion. I just wish they would get it done so we would no longer have to speculate. __________________ When you've got 'em by the balls, their hearts & minds will follow. Semper Fi.

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