12.3% of Americans sometimes carry handguns - Page 4

12.3% of Americans sometimes carry handguns

This is a discussion on 12.3% of Americans sometimes carry handguns within the General Firearm Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; @ since9 : Since you know so much about stats, though, I am sure you are aware of all the current problems with sociological statistics, ...

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Thread: 12.3% of Americans sometimes carry handguns

  1. #46
    VIP Member Array jmf552's Avatar
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    @since9 : Since you know so much about stats, though, I am sure you are aware of all the current problems with sociological statistics, especially when it comes to "hot button" issues, like guns. You have:
    • Researcher bias
    • Measuring one thing, then trying to extrapolate the results for another thing
    • Sample bias
    • Confirmation bias
    • Problems with question design
    • Selective reporting
    • Analysis bias
    • "Cherry picking" data and studies
    • Etc.

    So while "statistics" as a science is sound, "statistical malpractice" to coin a term is rampant causing "damn lies" and worse. You can say that means they are no longer statistics, but they are gathered and interpreted by people with the right credentials and they are referred to as statistics. Most consumers of sociological stats have neither the expertise, or even the raw information to sort through it. IMHO, this is at its worst in sociological stats.

    So if you do understand statistics and have a passion around it, this is not something you can get away with being Pollyanna about.
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  2. #47
    Member Array M1911A1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Texas Red View Post
    I'll carry practically anytime I leave the house, EXCEPT when my destination prohibits it.
    ...And I don't go where I can't carry a defensive pistol. I'm too old to be comfortable as a victim.
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  3. #48
    Member Array M1911A1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by since9 View Post
    ...those of us who do statistics know statistics cannot be made to lie without violating the rules of statistics, at which point they're not longer statistics.
    Ah, but the person(s) providing the false statistics never show us how those false statistics have been manipulated.

    Without possessing the original tallies, one normally cannot fact-check the statistics being presented.
    And, you know, that inability hampers trained statisticians, too.
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  5. #49
    VIP Member Array Struckat's Avatar
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    Statistically I am in the group with the blank expressions.
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  6. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmf552 View Post
    Some slightly different numbers from a different study in 2017:
    • About 3 million people carry a handgun every day.
    • About 9 million carry a gun at least once a month.
    • 80% of handgun carriers have permits.
    • 66% said they only carried concealed.
    • 10% said they only carried openly.

    I am a bit suspicious of these numbers for three reasons:
    • The numbers seem a little too "round" for me.
    • The researchers obviously had an anti-gun bias, although I think they would have erred on the side of saying more people carried than less.
    • The sample size of 1,444 people seemed too small for my liking.
    Writers often round the numbers for the masses. It's nothing for them to round to the nearest 10%. In technical writing, three significant digits i.e. 4.273x106 is usually sufficient Depends on the topic. If you're describing the dimensions of a 160 ft wing, 0.001x160*12=1.2 inches, which is way too much slop for building that wing! Might want to go four significant digits.

    But that's technical writing, not media writing. Good journalists, even in mainstream media, will generally keep things more precise i.e. "9.2 million" instead of "about 9 million."

    If the researchers have an obvious bias one way or the other, their methods can still be sound. Obvious bias does, however, make me examine their methods a bit more closely.


    A sample size of 1,444 would result in the following margins of error for a population of 250,000 with the following confidence levels:

    90%: 2.16
    95%: 2.58
    99%: 3.39

    Thus, I suspect they were shooting for a 95% C.I. and a 3% margin of error, shot for the resulting 1,068 minimum sample size, and simply over-shot. That's common for polls where some answers might need to be tossed due to errors in polling or responses.
    Nonetheless, I do think it is data point worth considering. I think the more people who carry, the better.

    https://epi.washington.edu/news/3-mi...handguns-daily[/QUOTE]
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  7. #51
    New Member Array malexone's Avatar
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    Statistics are like a bikini; what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital! Especially in this day and age... Mike

  8. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by LimaCharlie View Post
    87.36% of people lie on gun polls.

    And over 90% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
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  9. #53
    VIP Member Array scottync's Avatar
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    Ima be unpopular. Stats don’t lie. The people reporting or interpreting the data may to suit their agenda.
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  10. #54
    Distinguished Member Array Double Naught Spy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottync View Post
    Ima be unpopular. Stats don’t lie. The people reporting or interpreting the data may to suit their agenda.
    Right.

    Stats don't lie. Data don't lie. Pictures don't lie. They are just information. They may or may not represent the whole story (usually not) and are often just the basis for folks to tell their own story, which may or may not be intentionally or unintentionally accurate.
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  11. #55
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    A breakdown by state would show 90% Alaska 1% New York, a guess.

  12. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by easy10 View Post
    A breakdown by state would show 90% Alaska 1% New York, a guess.
    New York's percentage of licensed carriers to total population is actually 0.4%.

    California's is 0.2%.

    The population of these two may issue states combine to contain eighteen percent of the US total.
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  13. #57
    flh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike1956 View Post
    New York's percentage of licensed carriers to total population is actually 0.4%.

    California's is 0.2%.

    The population of these two may issue states combine to contain eighteen percent of the US total.
    Link ?



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  14. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by flh View Post
    Link ?
    https://www.gunstocarry.com/concealed-carry-statistics/

    This one gives the licensing data, while state populations are readily available. Divide licenses by population to arrive at percentage of licensed carriers.
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  15. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozz10mm View Post
    2.4% that carry all the time seems realistic. There are probably a lot people that carry without a license for different reasons too. 30% of Americans own a gun seems low to me. I don't know anyone that doesn't own a gun.
    OK - try these numbers: Gramps and I have a total of over 35 still living family members who are old enough to legally own a gun. Of that total, 3 own guns, so far. I've been trying to encourage more to become trained gun owners, but those are our current numbers.

    That is 10% of this personal sample group who are gun owners - lower than the 30% the survey showed. I could go around our condo circle and ask everyone if he/she owns a gun but NOT going to do that, since I suspect there are some who are virulently anti 2nd amendment and I'm not going to stir that pot.
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  16. #60
    JWM
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    I only carry occasionally. Depends on my mood.

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