CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26% - Page 2

CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26%

This is a discussion on CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26% within the Law Enforcement, Military & Homeland Security Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; Originally Posted by PEF Those are "confirmed" cases. The actual number of infections is far higher - many with symptoms do not get diagnosed, and ...

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  1. #16
    VIP Member Array OldVet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    Those are "confirmed" cases. The actual number of infections is far higher - many with symptoms do not get diagnosed, and many are asymptomatic. The CDC page I referenced has five scenarios, with Scenario 5 being the "current best estimate."

    Focusing only on the deaths divided by confirmed cases is what got us into this mess.
    True, the actual number of cases is higher, but no one can attach any manner of accuracy to the actual death rate using speculative numbers. They don't know what they don't know, just that there is something they don't know. If they decide to throw in those never infected into the mix, the death rate will fall even lower, but that would be a worthless number unless they wish to establish the death rate against the entire population of the US.

    Point is, and I'll stick to it, the CDC--and anyone else--can come up with any number it wishes to suit any particular need.
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    It's been reported that the CDC has conflated the numbers of tests for the virus and tests for the antibodies to the virus.

    If so, this would drastically throw off the data being used to make major decisions for the health and economy.

    From the article:
    "The governmentís disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same."


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    VIP Member Array dangerranger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    Those are "confirmed" cases. The actual number of infections is far higher - many with symptoms do not get diagnosed, and many are asymptomatic. The CDC page I referenced has five scenarios, with Scenario 5 being the "current best estimate."

    Focusing only on the deaths divided by confirmed cases is what got us into this mess.
    The problem with the CDC and their numbers is I don't trust their numbers!

    My son works in a hospital. Any patient who has any simptom and is tested for Covid19 is presumed to have it [Till the test comes back with a result]. All presumed cases are counted on the CDC form, But there is no mechanism to remove those that are negative. and no interest in doing so. There is funding available for treating Covid patient's. The funds cover both the hospital and patients costs! With the government footing the cost, Why report anything else?

    I don't know if they are doing this nationally, state wide, or just locally. But it makes me not trust anything I read about Covid 19. DR
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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    Given how many predictions and data estimates from the experts have been proven wrong, the onus is now on the shutdown proponents to prove that the shutdown actually saved lives. I've yet to see any compelling data.
    I don't know how you prove what didn't happen. Aside from the common-sense argument that less contact means less transmission, I guess we can look at other countries?

    Sweden didn't have a lockdown, neighbors Norway and Finland did. Sweden currently has 396 deaths per million population, Norway 43, Finland 55.

    An 80% lower death rate seems pretty compelling to me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    I don't know how you prove what didn't happen. Aside from the common-sense argument that less contact means less transmission, I guess we can look at other countries?

    Sweden didn't have a lockdown, neighbors Norway and Finland did. Sweden currently has 396 deaths per million population, Norway 43, Finland 55.

    An 80% lower death rate seems pretty compelling to me.
    Without reviewing the underlying data and methodology in each country, those results cannot be used to establish efficacy of the American lock down.

    Without getting on this merry-go-round again, all of this ignores the deaths caused by the lock down.

    The bottom line is we'll never know if the lock down achieved its stated goal, or failed miserably.
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  7. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by dangerranger View Post
    The problem with the CDC and their numbers is I don't trust their numbers!

    My son works in a hospital. Any patient who has any simptom and is tested for Covid19 is presumed to have it [Till the test comes back with a result]. All presumed cases are counted on the CDC form, But there is no mechanism to remove those that are negative. and no interest in doing so. There is funding available for treating Covid patient's. The funds cover both the hospital and patients costs! With the government footing the cost, Why report anything else?

    I don't know if they are doing this nationally, state wide, or just locally. But it makes me not trust anything I read about Covid 19. DR
    It is not the "government" but us taxpayers instead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ctr View Post
    Virginiaís numbers are 33,962 confirmed cases. 1,159 actual deaths. The mortality rate is 3.41.

    The problem with proponents of an argument is ignoring or twisting facts to make their case. Ignorance or wishing are not supporting logical arguments. Theses threads are getting quite tiresome.
    That is true for some folks. But people are going to talk about the things that interest them. If those things don't interest me - I just don't participate until something comes along that does interest me. No sarcasm or disrespect intended. Just what I hope might be a helpful suggestion. It seems to work okay for me.
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  9. #23
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    ....and the idiot governor of Michigan extended the lockdown until June 12.

    ...no ulterior motive here folks, move along.
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  10. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    And yet, it still killed a lot more people per week than influenza does. The worst week of flu since 2013 had 1,626 deaths, while this disease gave us two weeks with over 15,000 deaths, nine times higher.

    Since the mortality seems to be only 2.5 times higher, the difference is probably explained by COVID being more contagious. An average carrier during flu season will infect 1.3 other people; recent studies on COVID make it 5.7.

    So, you're right and you're wrong. The death rate calculation was high, but the disease is still as dangerous as the calculation implied; it was just that they misattributed the danger to mortality rate rather than virulence, because they didn't know at the time how many asymptomatic carriers there were.

    The need for restrictions is still there. Or, if it isn't, it's because the people are choosing to stay home regardless of what's allowed. Around here a bunch of retail has reopened with capacity restrictions, but from what I've seen, they're not even getting close to enough customers to reach the restricted capacity. There's no going back to normal in the immediate future.
    Iím just glad we donít actually compare things that way outside this forum.

    Here, I havenít noticed that people donít want to go out. Each time Iíve been out to eat was during the week though, when most people would normally be at work. Restaurants were not full then even before COVID. Those who are out of jobs are not likely to be out spending money anyway, regardless of whether they are comparable being out. The people who are scared to go out are mostly scared because of how bad they were told the virus is, not because of how bad it actually turned out to be.
    a poor plan that is well executed will produce better results that a good plan that is poorly executed.

    This is America. I have the right to go places. You have the right to stay home. You have the right to be upset about me going places. I have the right to not care.

  11. #25
    VIP Member Array maxwell97's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    Without reviewing the underlying data and methodology in each country, those results cannot be used to establish efficacy of the American lock down.

    Without getting on this merry-go-round again, all of this ignores the deaths caused by the lock down.

    The bottom line is we'll never know if the lock down achieved its stated goal, or failed miserably.
    I seem to recall you using Sweden's statistics as a point of comparison to argue for ending the lockdown here. When it turns out that their numbers really aren't so great, the numbers must be off, I guess?

    And if we're not going to accept that data, how can we possibly accept the supposed numbers of people "killed by the shutdown?" There's no methodology supporting that.

    Here's what I think: the best analysis of the best data we have supports the decisions that states made to restrict activity. People see the suffering resulting from those restrictions, and don't want to believe it's necessary, so they latch on to any weakness in the data and analysis.

    We don't have the luxury of certainty in a situation like this.
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  12. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Havok View Post
    Iím just glad we donít actually compare things that way outside this forum.

    Here, I havenít noticed that people donít want to go out. Each time Iíve been out to eat was during the week though, when most people would normally be at work. Restaurants were not full then even before COVID. Those who are out of jobs are not likely to be out spending money anyway, regardless of whether they are comparable being out. The people who are scared to go out are mostly scared because of how bad they were told the virus is, not because of how bad it actually turned out to be.
    This from Gallup. People aren't ready to go back to normal.

    Attachment 327638
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  13. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    This from Gallup. People aren't ready to go back to normal.

    Attachment 327638
    Attachment doesnít work. You have to go to advanced post.
    a poor plan that is well executed will produce better results that a good plan that is poorly executed.

    This is America. I have the right to go places. You have the right to stay home. You have the right to be upset about me going places. I have the right to not care.

  14. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    This from Gallup. People aren't ready to go back to normal.

    Attachment 327638
    I can't open the attachment but a lot of people are making more money from the government handouts than they were working...so of course they won't be in favor of "getting back to normal".

    It's going to be next to impossible to wean them off.
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  15. #29
    VIP Member Array Havok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    I seem to recall you using Sweden's statistics as a point of comparison to argue for ending the lockdown here. When it turns out that their numbers really aren't so great, the numbers must be off, I guess?

    And if we're not going to accept that data, how can we possibly accept the supposed numbers of people "killed by the shutdown?" There's no methodology supporting that.

    Here's what I think: the best analysis of the best data we have supports the decisions that states made to restrict activity. People see the suffering resulting from those restrictions, and don't want to believe it's necessary, so they latch on to any weakness in the data and analysis.

    We don't have the luxury of certainty in a situation like this.
    I would trade our covid response for Swedenís in a heartbeat.
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    a poor plan that is well executed will produce better results that a good plan that is poorly executed.

    This is America. I have the right to go places. You have the right to stay home. You have the right to be upset about me going places. I have the right to not care.

  16. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    I seem to recall you using Sweden's statistics as a point of comparison to argue for ending the lockdown here. When it turns out that their numbers really aren't so great, the numbers must be off, I guess?

    And if we're not going to accept that data, how can we possibly accept the supposed numbers of people "killed by the shutdown?" There's no methodology supporting that.

    Here's what I think: the best analysis of the best data we have supports the decisions that states made to restrict activity. People see the suffering resulting from those restrictions, and don't want to believe it's necessary, so they latch on to any weakness in the data and analysis.

    We don't have the luxury of certainty in a situation like this.
    Funny, I was going to mention that you noted the geographic disparity between Sweden and the US to argue against my first comparison, and now you are using the disparity of C19 deaths among Scandahooovian countries to argue for the efficacy of the shutdown in the US. But then I thought, nah, that's a not a constructive way to add to this conversation.

    We can pick other countries with lockdowns with much higher death rates.

    The point is that there is no way we can prove or disprove the lockdown is working. I'm not latching on to weaknesses; I'm latching on to a lack of any definite proof, coupled with shifting goals and understandings of the virus. Knowing what we know now, knowing how many people are being killed by the lock down (AA meetings are non-essential but liquor stores are essential - ***???), it seems foolhardy to hold the line on a decision that was made on a data set that is now know to be quite inaccurate.
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