CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26%

CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26%

This is a discussion on CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26% within the Law Enforcement, Military & Homeland Security Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html Five scenarios, and scenario 5, below, is the best estimate: Symptomatic cases, Death rates stratified by years: 0-49: 0.0005 50-64: 0.002 65+: 0.013 ...

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Thread: CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26%

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    CDC Current Best Estimate of C19 Death rate: 0.26%

    Source:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

    Five scenarios, and scenario 5, below, is the best estimate:

    Symptomatic cases, Death rates stratified by years:
    0-49: 0.0005
    50-64: 0.002
    65+: 0.013
    Overall: 0.004

    Percent of asymptomatic cases: 35%

    This means and overall death rate of 0.26%


    The estimated death rate that drove our decision to shut down our economy: 3.4%. Now, the current best estimate by the CDC 13 times less than the original estimates.

    We panicked, and we made a decision on bad data. It's now time to correct that decision. The state governments should allow all businesses to resume normal practices while taking some common sense, least financially impactful precautions.

    The problem with Government is that it rarely admits it was wrong, and to justify a program enacted on incorrect assumptions, it invents new reasons that would have never justified enactment of the program in the first place.
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    VIP Member Array Fizban's Avatar
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    Brother.. sometime you just have to make decision based on what information you have. Especially when what you consider to be the immediate risk involved if you do nothing. I have no beef with the initial shut down and consider it to have been a prudent action considering what we believed at the time. That said, if the data changes then so should the metrics involved in deciding whether or not a shutdown remains legitimate or reasonable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fizban View Post
    Brother.. sometime you just have to make decision based on what information you have. Especially when what you consider to be the immediate risk involved if you do nothing. I have no beef with the initial shut down and consider it to have been a prudent action considering what we believed at the time. That said, if the data changes then so should the metrics involved in deciding whether or not a shutdown remains legitimate or reasonable.
    That is the problem with intelligence. If you wait too long for more data it becomes historical.
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    Governments as well as the media will continue to double down on stupid in defense of their reprehensible actions. Destroy an economy and way of life on bad assumptions, then continue the plunge to maintain and strengthen control of the populace.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fizban View Post
    Brother.. sometime you just have to make decision based on what information you have. Especially when what you consider to be the immediate risk involved if you do nothing. I have no beef with the initial shut down and consider it to have been a prudent action considering what we believed at the time. That said, if the data changes then so should the metrics involved in deciding whether or not a shutdown remains legitimate or reasonable.
    I don't have a problem with the initial decision, and pretty much stated as much at the end of March. But knowing what we know now, and how long it has gone on, I do have a problem.
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    And just think of how much lower it would be for the elderly if NY didn’t funnel positive patients into nursing homes. It’s almost like They read about small pox blankets and said “hold my beer!”.


    Quote Originally Posted by Fizban View Post
    Brother.. sometime you just have to make decision based on what information you have. Especially when what you consider to be the immediate risk involved if you do nothing. I have no beef with the initial shut down and consider it to have been a prudent action considering what we believed at the time. That said, if the data changes then so should the metrics involved in deciding whether or not a shutdown remains legitimate or reasonable.
    This is true, but if you make decisions based on what you know, then decision making should change as more information becomes available. Instead, our “experts” have continued to double down on decisions even after knowing what we previously believed was wrong.
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    a poor plan that is well executed will produce better results that a good plan that is poorly executed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PEF View Post
    I don't have a problem with the initial decision, and pretty much stated as much at the end of March. But knowing what we know now, and how long it has gone on, I do have a problem.
    I agree that its seems to be time for the leaders to re-evaluate the subject matter.
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    Using the CDC's number of confirmed cases (1,571,617) versus deaths (94,150) as of May 22, the death rate works out to be 5.99% overall. Based on the CDC numbers.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

    Like my accounting instructor said, numbers can be juggled to come up with any result desired.
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    There must be a reason that New York was the epicentre of the USA! Way more stupid people congregate there. Are they all democrats?

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldVet View Post
    Using the CDC's number of confirmed cases (1,571,617) versus deaths (94,150) as of May 22, the death rate works out to be 5.99% overall. Based on the CDC numbers.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

    Like my accounting instructor said, numbers can be juggled to come up with any result desired.
    Those are "confirmed" cases. The actual number of infections is far higher - many with symptoms do not get diagnosed, and many are asymptomatic. The CDC page I referenced has five scenarios, with Scenario 5 being the "current best estimate."

    Focusing only on the deaths divided by confirmed cases is what got us into this mess.
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    And yet, it still killed a lot more people per week than influenza does. The worst week of flu since 2013 had 1,626 deaths, while this disease gave us two weeks with over 15,000 deaths, nine times higher.

    Since the mortality seems to be only 2.5 times higher, the difference is probably explained by COVID being more contagious. An average carrier during flu season will infect 1.3 other people; recent studies on COVID make it 5.7.

    So, you're right and you're wrong. The death rate calculation was high, but the disease is still as dangerous as the calculation implied; it was just that they misattributed the danger to mortality rate rather than virulence, because they didn't know at the time how many asymptomatic carriers there were.

    The need for restrictions is still there. Or, if it isn't, it's because the people are choosing to stay home regardless of what's allowed. Around here a bunch of retail has reopened with capacity restrictions, but from what I've seen, they're not even getting close to enough customers to reach the restricted capacity. There's no going back to normal in the immediate future.
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    Virginia’s numbers are 33,962 confirmed cases. 1,159 actual deaths. The mortality rate is 3.41.

    The problem with proponents of an argument is ignoring or twisting facts to make their case. Ignorance or wishing are not supporting logical arguments. Theses threads are getting quite tiresome.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scouse View Post
    There must be a reason that New York was the epicentre of the USA! Way more stupid people congregate there. Are they all democrats?
    Most "news" media is based in new york and has the new york assumption the world worships them and base all their decisions on what happens there, they could not be more mistaken.
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwell97 View Post
    And yet, it still killed a lot more people per week than influenza does. The worst week of flu since 2013 had 1,626 deaths, while this disease gave us two weeks with over 15,000 deaths, nine times higher.

    Since the mortality seems to be only 2.5 times higher, the difference is probably explained by COVID being more contagious. An average carrier during flu season will infect 1.3 other people; recent studies on COVID make it 5.7.

    So, you're right and you're wrong. The death rate calculation was high, but the disease is still as dangerous as the calculation implied; it was just that they misattributed the danger to mortality rate rather than virulence, because they didn't know at the time how many asymptomatic carriers there were.

    The need for restrictions is still there. Or, if it isn't, it's because the people are choosing to stay home regardless of what's allowed. Around here a bunch of retail has reopened with capacity restrictions, but from what I've seen, they're not even getting close to enough customers to reach the restricted capacity. There's no going back to normal in the immediate future.
    Given how many predictions and data estimates from the experts have been proven wrong, the onus is now on the shutdown proponents to prove that the shutdown actually saved lives. I've yet to see any compelling data.
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    Let's talk about how COVID is different from the flu.

    1. It's more transmissible
    2. Fewer infected people have symptoms.
    3. More people with symptoms have severe disease.
    4. More people with severe disease die.

    The public, the press, and sometimes even public officials unfortunately are conflating the prevalence in the population, with confirmed case numbers, with hospitalized patients, with hospital deaths. Those aren't all the same.

    Academic center numbers show hospital mortality of around 20% or higher. Small hospitals are worse.

    It's that simple, and that's why the public health management of this is so difficult. As for the shutdown, it was likely indicated in NYC and other high density centers with high case numbers. Whether it helped in the rest of the county, history will show. I worry that it the long term COVID collateral will be a devastatingly large number, between worsening chronic disease care, bad economy and its impact on people and healthcare systems, and psychiatric impact on both children and adults.

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