Tomorrow is my day for punishment. Rolling Blackouts - Page 4

Tomorrow is my day for punishment. Rolling Blackouts

This is a discussion on Tomorrow is my day for punishment. Rolling Blackouts within the Off Topic & Humor Discussion forums, part of the The Back Porch category; Originally Posted by M1911A1 Good analysis! Right on the money (or maybe that's the wrong metaphor). But don't forget to put some of the direct ...

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  1. #46
    Member Array Swedishsteel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M1911A1 View Post
    Good analysis!
    Right on the money (or maybe that's the wrong metaphor).
    But don't forget to put some of the direct blame on the Sierra Club, and on other "environmentally correct" organizations, for lobbying the government to prohibit controlled burns and other preventive tactics.
    Thanks.

    It is also well known that power generating and distribution systems are designed and constructed to DELIVER electricity. They are not designed for wide area, repetitious, shut downs and start ups. Turning the electricity off is easy. Restoring it is fraught with challenges and hazards. Imagine if the power was shut off just to your house and all of your electrical appliances were left on, plugged in to one or two 20 amp circuits. When the power comes back on, it is almost inevitable that the circuit breakers (or in older homes, fuses) would trip and open. Now consider PG&E's challenge. Every home has freezers, refrigerators, and other appliances waiting to draw a load. Many homes and municipalities have high amp water pumps for domestic water supply. Across the blackout areas businesses have everything from electric furnaces, welding machines, HVAC systems, elevators, and process heaters poised to draw current at the earliest opportunity. As PG&E closes circuits, breakers will be strained and transformers will be tested. Some will fail.

    A Large Power Transformer (LPT) weighs up to 400 tons. Across America, the average age of all LPTs in service is 40 years! 70% of the LPTs in service today are more than 25 years old. PG&E, no doubt, has emergency response plans and, more important in this case, Emergency Recovery Plans that track LPT health and identifies specific steps to take when one catastrophically fails. They, no doubt, have spare units for some of the most critical applications but...BUT, they do not have spare units to cover multiple simultaneous LPT failures that could accompany repeated attempts to shut down and restore huge power loads. In the US today the backorder delay to replace many LPTs is in excess of 18 months. Mitsubishi in Tennessee and Hyundai in Alabama are two of the few remaining domestic LPT manufacturers but they are dependent on the availability of critical copper windings and electrical steel for transformer cores to meet new order demands. Used spares available through brokers or competitors may be identified in PG&E's Emergency Recovery Plan but at 300 plus tons, they are not easy to transport and install. Also, it is not assured that a critical spare in the hands of the broker is "available". A broker may have contractual obligations to maintain it as a spare for other utility companies or private enterprises that pay the broker to "reserve" critical spares for their exclusive needs.

    Finally, the risks I describe are not unique to PG&E. Our national grid is very vulnerable to terrorist or foreign interest attacks. In recent years, we have shut the lights out in many areas around the globe before initiating military assaults. Our attacks have been focused and sometimes executed to shut down electrical supply without damaging critical infrastructure by doing things like fouling power transmission lines with mylar streamers. On other occasions we have simply destroyed transformers with smart weapons. We have also accomplished the same end result by hacking control systems and loading malicious, destructive malware. China, Russia, Iran, and South Korea are believed to have comparable capabilities...Russia "hacked off" power in Crimea/Ukraine as step one of their incursion, for example.

    Consider the consequences to our society if a large swath of the national grid was severely damaged with the expectation that it would take up to a year to restore power. Based on personal experience around the world, I believe that the difference between civilized man and savages is three meals; by that, I mean that once people have no idea how they will feed themselves tomorrow they will revert to any means necessary to assure the survival of themselves and their loved ones. Lord of the Flies. It would make the tragic damages and losses incurred on 9/11 seem trivial.

  2. #47
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    How many wake up calls does a Californian need before they change their politics?
    ^^^^^ It's not their politics or policies. It is global warming. Quit your denial, or off to the gulag.

    Based on personal experience around the world, I believe that the difference between civilized man and savages is three meals; by that, I mean that once people have no idea how they will feed themselves tomorrow they will revert to any means necessary to assure the survival of themselves and their loved ones. Lord of the Flies.
    Now that you say it that way, I do believe you are correct.

    The cities and towns will erupt first, then it just starts rolling. Interesting.
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  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by dangerranger View Post
    East of there. Coarsegold is close to us.
    Man I love Coarsegold, Yosemite Lakes and Oakhurst area. I used to ride a bicycle from Fresno to Yosemite Valley as a young man. Fond memories.
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    Distinguished Member Array GpTom's Avatar
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    This mornings Chicago news, 10-29th, said that the fire fighters extinguished 330 smaller fires in California. Right away I wondered how they got water from hydrants if the power was shut off to the city water works. I realize how lucky we are in Illinois that we haven't had any major fires when it was really windy. At least not lately.
    Last edited by GpTom; October 29th, 2019 at 01:37 PM.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by GpTom View Post
    This mornings Chicago news, 10-29th, said that the fire fighters extinguished 330 smaller fires in California. Right away I wondered how they got water from hydrants if the power was shut off to the city water works. I realize how lucky we are in Illinois that we haven't any had major fires when it was really windy. At least not lately.
    If fires breakout in Illinois, help is available. Right now there are over 340,000 Chicago school students looking for something to do as the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) leads more than 19,500 teachers into the ninth day of an all-too-common walkout. Parents there must be furious. With no experience, a first year Chicago Public School (CPS) teacher right out of college with a BS earns $52,958 for a 42 week work year. A teacher with no experience and a MS receives $60,590. In addition to salary, CPS teachers receive an average of $27,146 per year in health, retirement and other benefits. In contrast, consider parents of the kids out on the street right now. The median HOUSEHOLD income of Chicago residents is only $57,238 and is typically based on two wage earners working 50 weeks per year.

    The average salary for a CPS teacher with 10 years of experience is $82,630 plus $27,146 in benefits for a 42 week work year. Teachers with 10 years of experience earn about $10,000 less per year in New York City and about $20,000 less per year in Los Angeles.

    Recently installed Mayor Lori Lightfoot has articulately but not persuasively presented the case that there is no more money in the bank. The CTU responded that they will only come back to work if guaranteed a 15% salary increase over the next 3 years accompanied by numerous structural changes in workday hours and class size.

    Sooner or later the teachers will return to work and the kids will come back to school and Chicago will once again look south to all of the generous good souls in Decatur and Watseka and Effingham and Vandalia and Harrisburg to please pay just a little more with a sincere promise that next time, things will be different.

    I spent much of my life in and around Chicago waiting for the promise to be fulfilled. Upon retirement, as Chicago looked south, I moved east.
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  6. #51
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    It would appear to me CA punishes its citizens every day. It is like boiling a frog in a pot. The water heats up slowly so the frog doesn't notice its goose is cooked until it's too late.

    I can't image living in a place where rolling blackouts can last days. If I had absolutely no other options, I'd have to have a full house emergency generator to backup my full solar array. I can't imagine the imposition this is for the elderly dependent on electicity for health reasons or people who have full freezers and refrigerators. CA sux.
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    One of my Brothers and a couple friends live in Santa Rosa. I get updates almost everyday, it does not look good.
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  8. #53
    VIP Member Array dangerranger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bad Bob View Post
    One of my Brothers and a couple friends live in Santa Rosa. I get updates almost everyday, it does not look good.
    My wifes family are in Santa Rosa, and Petaluma. DR
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  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by spclopr8tr View Post
    I can't image living in a place where rolling blackouts can last days. If I had absolutely no other options, I'd have to have a full house emergency generator to backup my full solar array... CA sux.
    I'm sure CA has a tax on that also.
    spclopr8tr likes this.
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    I want to be the first to put out the warning on global cooling. Mark my words: the next ice age is coming!

    You heard it first, right here on DCF from OV.
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  11. #56
    Nix
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    Will this ice age come before or after Florida ends up underwater.......?
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  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nix View Post
    Will this ice age come before or after Florida ends up underwater.......?
    According to Al Gore, Florida is already supposed to be underwater.
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldVet View Post
    I want to be the first to put out the warning on global cooling. Mark my words: the next ice age is coming!

    You heard it first, right here on DCF from OV.
    Great helps keep the beer cold.
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  14. #59
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    Tomorrow is my day for punishment. Rolling Blackouts-owls.png
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