I am starting to get worried

I am starting to get worried

This is a discussion on I am starting to get worried within the The Second Amendment & Gun Legislation Discussion forums, part of the Related Topics category; I don't want this to be a political opinion thread in violation of site rules. I hope the moderators will warn people if they cross ...

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Thread: I am starting to get worried

  1. #1
    VIP Member Array jmf552's Avatar
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    I am starting to get worried

    I don't want this to be a political opinion thread in violation of site rules. I hope the moderators will warn people if they cross the line. So let's not talk about any aspect of the election that does not directly impact gun rights. My purpose here is to sound a warning to people in certain states about a very real threat to gun rights.

    Because polling failed so miserably in 2016, there are two sources I rely to help predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. One is the Election Betting Odds site, because the people creating the odds in theory have no bias. They are just trying to win money and most of them have some skill at predicting winners. The other is 270 to Win, because it looks at electoral votes, which are what counts and it looks at a balance of polling sources to determine the likelihood of electoral votes going a certain way.

    Trump has not been perfect on gun rights, but the Dems platform is beyond horrible for the RTKABA. And they will be happy to do it with Executive Orders and take their chances in the courts. For the first time in the race, the Dems are within striking distance of Trump. The election betting odds have Trump at 50%, which is the lowest he has been since Dec. It has Biden at 43.8%, which is the highest any Dem has been the whole race, by a big margin. Most of that has occurred in the last couple of weeks.

    As for electoral votes, the Dems are thought to be ahead with 248 vs. 204, with 270 needed to win. Here is the whole point of this post: The tossup states are surprising and gun owners in those states need to get really busy. The tossups are:
    • AZ
    • WI
    • PA
    • NC
    • FL

    Also, there are three "weak Republican" or "leaning" states
    • IA
    • OH
    • GA

    Gun owners in those states should know that the fate of the RTKABA may depend on them more than most gun owners and the time to start doing something about that is now. Get involved with your state party, have rallies, get out the vote.
    Attack Squadron 65 "Tigers", USS Eisenhower '80 - '83, peackeeping w/Iran, Libya, Lebanon and E. Europe

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    Member Array Osprey's Avatar
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    I seldom delve into politics but I will give you my thoughts on this: so far, the only difference I see between a Dem and Rep as far as gun-rights is that one wants to take them away now, the others are just making it go away more slowly to appease their base voters.

    FWIW

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    Your thread topic is fine as long as members can keep it predominately on topic.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osprey View Post
    I seldom delve into politics but I will give you my thoughts on this: so far, the only difference I see between a Dem and Rep as far as gun-rights is that one wants to take them away now, the others are just making it go away more slowly to appease their base voters.

    FWIW
    I don't think that's true at all, as evidenced by such successes as the rise of lawful carry. But even if it were, slow is much better than fast, so they get my vote regardless.
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    Remember that just 3 short weeks ago Biden was history and washed up. Win a few primaries and now he is their saviour.

    Its funny how people jump on and off the bandwagon for the democratic candidates. Trump has been there all along.
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    Hard to tell who to listen to anymore as far as which states are in play.
    Many say that we in Texas are in play, with the state with the 2nd most electoral votes at 38 just behind California.
    If we flip, our second amendment rights could be in real trouble.
    Then others say we are safe and okay, but for how long?

  8. #7
    Distinguished Member Array DZUS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmf552 View Post
    I don't want this to be a political opinion thread in violation of site rules. I hope the moderators will warn people if they cross the line. So let's not talk about any aspect of the election that does not directly impact gun rights. My purpose here is to sound a warning to people in certain states about a very real threat to gun rights.

    Because polling failed so miserably in 2016, there are two sources I rely to help predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. One is the Election Betting Odds site, because the people creating the odds in theory have no bias. They are just trying to win money and most of them have some skill at predicting winners. The other is 270 to Win, because it looks at electoral votes, which are what counts and it looks at a balance of polling sources to determine the likelihood of electoral votes going a certain way.

    Trump has not been perfect on gun rights, but the Dems platform is beyond horrible for the RTKABA. And they will be happy to do it with Executive Orders and take their chances in the courts. For the first time in the race, the Dems are within striking distance of Trump. The election betting odds have Trump at 50%, which is the lowest he has been since Dec. It has Biden at 43.8%, which is the highest any Dem has been the whole race, by a big margin. Most of that has occurred in the last couple of weeks.

    As for electoral votes, the Dems are thought to be ahead with 248 vs. 204, with 270 needed to win. Here is the whole point of this post: The tossup states are surprising and gun owners in those states need to get really busy. The tossups are:
    • AZ
    • WI
    • PA
    • NC
    • FL

    Also, there are three "weak Republican" or "leaning" states
    • IA
    • OH
    • GA

    Gun owners in those states should know that the fate of the RTKABA may depend on them more than most gun owners and the time to start doing something about that is now. Get involved with your state party, have rallies, get out the vote.
    JMF, you are correct to be worried. National elections are usually very close, and the opponents are skilled cheaters.

    That said, a little 'worry' can be good, as it stimulates us to register, vote, discuss important issues with friends and fam, and encourage like-mined peeps to vote. This includes rides to polling places and assisting with mail-in ballots for those who might feel complacent.

    Worry will prevent a false sense of security, and thus, worry is a good thing in critical, critical elections.

    .
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    We are damned if we do, damned if we don't at this point, IMO. One party will drive the bus as the other throws us under it when it comes to gun rights. RINOs abound while the Dems try to outdo each other on which of them hates the Second Amendment the most.
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    I'm doing whatever I can without becoming a full blown activist. When I hear about Dems making headway I have to say that I'm hanging out with the wrong people because everyone I know seem to understand that the Dems are the real problem - especially when it comes to guns. I just read an article where Biden threatened to slap a man for challenging Biden on his 2A stance. Maybe Biden should be a victim of the red flag laws that he supports? Anyway, he said he was going to take away the man's AR-14 which goes to show how little these anti-gun politicians know about guns. I would imagine that most people are looking for hand-outs and that is more likely to account for people voting Democrat. I guess a lot of people are more willing to give up their rights and freedoms these days.
    matthew03 likes this.
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    VIP Member Array graydude's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KILTED COWBOY View Post
    Hard to tell who to listen to anymore as far as which states are in play.
    Many say that we in Texas are in play, with the state with the 2nd most electoral votes at 38 just behind California.
    If we flip, our second amendment rights could be in real trouble.
    Then others say we are safe and okay, but for how long?
    Hate to be the downer, but demographics are destiny. TX is going the same path as CA, its just a matter of time. Barring other big changes nationwide, at that point were going to have blooming anarchy when conservatives change from ballot boxes to other boxes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by graydude View Post
    Hate to be the downer, but demographics are destiny. TX is going the same path as CA, its just a matter of time. Barring other big changes nationwide, at that point were going to have blooming anarchy when conservatives change from ballot boxes to other boxes.
    Sad thing is if Texas is lost you will never see another Republican President in the future. It will be mathematically impossible to win the electoral vote.
    Not until after the civil war is over.

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    So how did those two polling sites do with the 2016 presidential election? I don't recall any polls predicting Trump would win. The only organization suggesting he would was the LA Times.
    G26Raven and CLASS3NH like this.
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    What I find the most concerning is the issue with illegal voting. When you have a state like Iowa 7 counties with more registered voters than eligible voters, we have a serious problem. I would like to think given the enthusiasm of Trump supporters, and the number of people attending his rallies, he will win again. But given what happened in the last election, I don't think there is any way to accurately predict what will happen.
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    Or like the new census coming out where illegals are counted for representatives in congress.
    More illegals counted the more congress critters the state gets.

  16. #15
    Senior Member Array Fallsrider's Avatar
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    Elections are incredibly fluid. Just when I get shocked with an election and think I have seen it all, the next one shocks me even more. I have been surprised so many times over the years, some good, some bad, but I decided in the last few years to never assume an election outcome, no matter what the media pundits tell us.

    One thing is for sure... whether it is this election, the next one, or the one after that, this country is going to elect a very anti-gun president. It is going to happen. We have to brace ourselves for it. I only hope we get the chance to get at least one more conservative Justice on the Supreme Court before that happens.
    graydude, jmf552, arte710 and 3 others like this.

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